Syria in a Week (25 June 2018)

Syria in a Week (25 June 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

Portents of the Battle in the South

18-24 June 2018

Reuters

After the Syrian army’s military reinforcement in recent weeks, military operations on the southern front started, especially in al-Lajat area, and then expanded to include Dara’a city.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has promised to take back opposition controlled areas in southern Syria. On the other hand, Syrian opposition factions in the south pledged to confront any offensive carried out by government forces and their allies.

This is a rerun of the scenario in Aleppo and Ghouta, as Russia refrained from declaring its direct participation in the military operations and then declared its support for the operations carried out by the Syrian army and its allies, especially through airstrikes.

Last week, the United States warned that it would take “strict and proportional” measures in response to government violations in the “de-escalation” zone in south-west of Syria. The US Secretary of State reaffirmed the US commitment to the ceasefire in the south-west area of Syria during his meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister. However, a new development in the US position emerged as Washington informed Syrian opposition factions not to expect military support to help them confront the massive offensive by the Russian-supported government forces to retake areas in southern Syria. (Reuters)

The UN General Secretary called for an immediate end to military escalation in the south-west of Syria, his spokesman said on Friday, after government forces ramped up their attacks on areas controlled by opposition forces this week. The spokesman referred to the displacement of thousands of civilians and their movement towards the Jordanian border, and stressed that these attacks pose significant risks to regional security. (Reuters) In a statement on Thursday, the UN expressed its grave concern regarding escalations in fighting which led to the death of tens of people and the displacement of thousands. It is estimated that there are seven hundred and fifty thousand civilians in south-west of Syria. (Reuters)

A Jordanian source expressed mounting concern that the violence could spill into the country, and that the kingdom, an ally of the United States, is participating in increasing diplomatic efforts to preserve the de-escalation zone after it helped seal the agreement there.

In a related development, a commander in the pro-Assad regional coalition said that a drone was targeted by an Israeli missile when it was taking part in the Syrian army’s operations in Qunaitera Governorate near the Occupied Golan Heights. The Israeli army said that it fired an anti-aircraft Patriot missile against a drone approaching from Syria, but did not hit the target. It should be mentioned that Israel expressed its fear of Iranian or pro-Iranian forces reaching its border with Syria.

 

Manbij and Solidification of Turkey’s Role

18-24 June 2018

Reuters

Fighters from a Syrian Kurdish faction are leaving Manbij north of Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Monday. (Reuters) Turkish armed forces earlier said that Turkish and US forces had started independent patrols north of Syria along the line separating Turkish-controlled areas and Manbij city, in which Ankara says that the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) are deployed. Earlier this month, Ankara and Washington agreed on a road map for the withdrawal of YPG fighters from Manbij and the deployment of Turkish and US forces in the area to secure it. YPG fighters will begin to withdraw from Manbij, north of Syria, starting on 4 July and after months-long preparation, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Thursday. (Reuters)

The decline in the US role signals a solidification of the Turkish role in northern Syria, complicating the situation between Turkey, the Syrian government, and Kurdish factions.

On Tuesday, the Syrian government condemned the Turkish and US incursion around Manbij, a day after the two countries started military patrols in the area. The Syrian government pledged to confront any foreign presence on Syrian territory. (Reuters)

The Syrian army will regain control of the northern part of the country by force if militants refuse to surrender, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said in a television interview on Sunday.

“We have chosen two paths: the first and most important one is reconciliation… The second path is to attack terrorists if they don’t surrender and refuse to make peace,” Assad said in the interview. “We will fight with them (opposition fighters) and return control by force. It is certainly not the best option for us, but it’s the only way to get control of the country,” said Assad, responding to a question about the northern part of Syria where armed groups backed by Turkey hold some territory. (Reuters)

The tensions in Manbij coincide with security tensions in Raqqa where the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who hold control of the city, imposed a curfew for three days starting on Sunday and declared a state of emergency, saying that ISIS fanatics snuck into the city and were planning to carry out attacks. Reuters reported that internal security forces of the SDF set up checkpoints around the city. The SDF announced the curfew late Saturday night to take effect starting early Sunday until Tuesday. (Reuters)

 

Targeting Iraqi “Mobilization Forces”

19 & 22 June 2018

Reuters

On Tuesday, Iraq denounced airstrikes that targeted forces fighting ISIS in Iraq or Syria, after official media said that US-led coalition planes bombed a position belonging to Syrian government forces near the Iraq border, resulting in deaths and injuries. The People’s Mobilization Committee said that US bombing on the Iraqi border with Syria left twenty-two of its members dead and twelve others injured. The United States denied involvement in this attack. A statement from the Iraqi army later said that none of the People’s Mobilization Forces or any Iraqi forces in charge of securing the Iraqi-Syrian border were subject to an airstrike and that the strike took place inside Syrian territories. Although Iraqi forces have launched air strikes against ISIS positions across the border with Syria, its security forces do not have any presence on the ground, however, several factions affiliated with the People’s Mobilization Forces have supported Syrian government forces for years. (Reuters)

 

Ghouta … Medieval War

20 June 2018

Reuters

Syrian government forces and affiliated forces committed war crimes and crimes against humanity during their long siege of eastern Ghouta through heavy bombardment and “deliberate starvation” of two hundred and sixty-five thousand people, UN investigators said on Wednesday. About twenty thousand opposition fighters, some belonging to “terrorist groups”, entrenched in the besieged area and bombed nearby Damascus in attacks “that killed and maimed hundreds of Syrian civilians”, amounting to war crimes, UN invesitgators said. The latest report by the UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria, led by Paulo Pinheiro, is based on one hundred and forty interviews as well as photographs, videos, satellite imagery, and medical records. The report condemned what it described a “medieval form of warfare.” The report went on to say that tactics used from February to April 2018 to recapture the enclave were “largely unlawful in nature, aimed at punishing the inhabitants of eastern Ghouta, and forcing the population, collectively, to surrender or starve.” The report said that planes bombed hospitals depriving the injured of medical care, adding: “This pattern of attack strongly suggests that pro-Government forces systematically targeted medical facilities, repeatedly committing the war crime of deliberately attacking protected objects, and intentionally attacking medical personnel.” UN experts cited evidence of chlorine gas use in Ghouta at least four times this year but said their investigation would continue. (Reuters)

 

The Tragedy of Politicized Asylum

22 June 2018

Reuters

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Friday on a visit to Lebanon that the situation in Syria is not suitable yet for the return of refugees, an issue which has led to a dispute between Lebanon’s Foreign Minister and the UN refugee agency. “We want to help find solutions in Syria so that a return of refugees can take place…we need more secure conditions for a return to be possible,” Merkel said in a news conference in Beirut with Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Saad al-Hariri.

After meeting Merkel on Friday, Lebanese President Michel Aoun said he asked for Germany to support calls “for the gradual return of displaced Syrians” from Lebanon. Aoun said on Twitter that he “stressed the need to separate between this return and a political solution for the Syrian crisis.” (Reuters)

On the Turkish side, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his main rival in Sunday’s presidential elections both pledged to send Syrian refugees to their country in response to growing unease among voters about the number of migrants in Turkey. “Right after the election we aim to make all Syrian lands safe, starting from areas near our border, and to facilitate the return home of all our guests,” Erdogan said in a speech in the southeastern city of Gaziantep. He also said that two hundred thousand Syrians have already gone back to areas north of Syria controlled by Turkey and allied Syrian fighters after military campaigns to oust Kurdish fighters and ISIS fighters. (Reuters)

 

Common Ground in Geneva

19 June 2018

Reuters

Senior officials from Iran, Russia, and Turkey had “substantive” talks on Tuesday regarding the formation and function of the Syrian constitutional committee, and more talks are planned within weeks, said the UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura.

On Monday 25 June, de Mistura met with representatives from the United States, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Germany. “During the meeting, constructive exchanges and substantive discussions took place on issues relevant to the establishment and functioning of a constitutional committee, and some common ground is beginning to emerge,” a statement after the talks in Geneva said.

 

 

Syria in a Week (4 June 2018)

Syria in a Week (4 June 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

US Outrage and Syrian Presidency

29 May 2018

The US State Department expressed its outrage that Syria will assume the presidency of the UN Conference on Disarmament for the next month, saying that Damascus lacks credibility to preside over the body because of its use of chemical weapons.

“We are outraged at the Syrian regime’s blatant disregard for human life, its serial violations of and contempt for its international obligations and its audaciousness in assuming the presidency of an international body committed to advancing disarmament and non-proliferation,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said on Tuesday.

US Ambassador Robert Wood withdrew from the conference when the Syrian ambassador presided over the conference.

 

US Condemnation and Syrian Recognition

30 May 2018

On Wednesday, the United States condemned Syria’s decision to recognize two breakaway regions in Georgia, saying it fully backed Georgia’s independence and reiterating its call for Russia to withdraw from the area.

“The United States strongly condemns the Syrian regime’s intention to establish diplomatic relations with the Russian-occupied Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia,” US State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a statement.

“These regions are part of Georgia. The United States’ position on Abkhazia and South Ossetia is unwavering,” the statement said.

The US statement came one day after Georgia said that it would sever diplomatic relations with Syria after Damascus moved to recognize the two regions as independent states.

Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Nauru recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both of which broke away from Georgia following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Following a war in the early 1990s, Georgia and Russia fought a war over the regions in August 2008.

The United States and the European Union have backed Georgia in calling the Russian operation a naked land grab.

Last week, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pledged deeper security and economic support for Georgia, calling on Russia to withdraw its forces from Abkhazia and South Ossetia under the ceasefire agreement that followed the 2008 war. The state department echoed that request on Wednesday.

 

US-Turkish Map

30 May 2018

The US State Department on Wednesday denied media reports that a deal had been reached between the United States and Turkey on a three-step plan for withdrawing the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) from Manbij, Syria.

“We do not have any agreements yet with the government of Turkey,” department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in a statement in Washington. “We are continuing to have ongoing conversations regarding Syria and other issues of mutual concern,” she said, adding that American and Turkish officials had met in Ankara last week for talks on the issue.

Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency had previously said that Turkey and Washington reached a technical agreement on the withdrawal plan, a move Turkey has long sought from the United States.

Turkey is outraged by US support for the YPG, considering them a terrorist organization. Ankara has threatened to push its offensive in northern Syria’s Afrin region further east to Manbij.

Manbij is a potential flashpoint. The Syrian government, Kurdish militants, Syrian rebel groups, Turkey, and the United States all have a military presence in northern Syria.

Under the terms of the plan to be finalized during a visit by Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu to Washington on 4 June, the YPG will withdraw from Manbij thirty days after the deal is signed, Anadolu said, quoting sources who attended meetings at which the decisions were made.

Turkish and US military forces will start joint supervision in Manbij forty-five days after the agreement is signed and a local administration will be formed sixty days after 4 June, Anadolu said.

 

Russian-Israeli Understanding

31 May 2018

Russian and Israeli defense ministers met in Moscow on Thursday, while Russia is providing indirect support for Israel in efforts to remove Iranian troops from southern Syria, near the Israeli border.

Russia has managed to maintain close relations with regional rivals Israel and Iran as it provides decisive military support for the Syrian government in Syria’s multi-sided civil war.

“Israel appreciates Russia’s understanding of our security needs, especially the situation on our northern border,” Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said in a statement from Lieberman’s office.

The meeting lasted more than an hour and a half and concerned security issues between the two countries and Israel’s effort to “prevent Iran from establishing bases in Syria,” the statement said.

Russia, on the previous day, demanded that foreign soldiers leave southwestern Syria’s civilian safe zone, near the Israeli border, without directly mentioning Iran.

There are international agreements that all non-Syrian forces must leave the zone, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters in Moscow, adding that Russia has been working on the issue with the United States and Jordan.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the previous week that Iran must leave all of Syria because Iran’s long-range missiles threaten Israel’s national security.

“We are not satisfied with Iranian withdrawal from southern Syria alone,” Netanyahu said in a statement.

 

Opposition Against Iran

31 May 2018

The US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal opens the way to raising pressure on Tehran to stop its military support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, a Syrian opposition leader said on Thursday.

Nasr Hariri of the Syrian Negotiation Commission (SNC) spoke in Brussels as Assad declared that US forces should leave Syria because people in the Middle East were tired of foreign invasions.

Hariri pushed back against Assad’s comments, stressing that Russia and Iran had been fighting on behalf of Assad in the Syrian war, helping him retake considerable territory from rebels and Islamic groups. Hariri said there were now up to one hundred thousand Iranian or Iran-affiliated fighters in the country.

“The role of Iran is getting bigger and bigger, at the expense of our people,” Hariri said. “So we are supporting any international mechanism that could limit the influence of Iran in the region in general, and in our country in particular.”

Hariri had talks with EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini about the matter on Thursday. “While Iran and Iranian militias are present in our country, there will not be a political, negotiated solution. There will not be a solution while these foreign partners are there. We are looking for ways to force Iran out of Syria,” he said.

 

Return of Syrians from Lebanon!

31 May 2018

Lebanon is working with Damascus for the return of thousands of refugees who want to go back to Syria, a Lebanese official said on Thursday.

Lebanese President Michel Auon and other politicians called for refugees to go back to “secure areas” before reaching a deal to end the Syrian war.

According to UN estimates, Lebanon hosts around one million registered Syrian refugees or about one quarter of the of the country’s population, who have fled the war in Syria since 2011. The Lebanese government estimates the number of refugees to be more than one and a half million.

After Syrian forces backed by Iran and Russia recaptured vast areas of land, several Lebanese politicians have stressed their demands for the return of refugees, which is at odds with the international view that it is not safe yet.

“There are contacts with the Syrian authorities about thousands of Syrians who want to return to Syria,” Major General Abbas Ibrahim, a top Lebanese state figure and the head of the General Security agency, told reporters on Thursday. “The stay of Syrians in Lebanon will not go on for a long time. There is intensive work by the political authority,” he added without giving a timeframe for the return, however, he suggested that at least some refugees would return soon.

In an emailed statement in response to a question from Reuters, the UNHCR said that it was “aware of several return movements of Syrian refugees being planned to Syria,” and that “UNHCR is in regular contact with the General Directorate of the General Security on this issue.”

In April, several hundred refugees were transported from Shabaa in southern Lebanon to Syria, in an operation supervised by General Security and in coordination with Damascus.

Saad al-Hariri, who is prime minister of the outgoing Lebanese government and has been designated to form the next one, said Lebanon is against forced returns of refugees.

“We are going to establish ten centers for our Syrian brothers allover Lebanon to regulate their administrative and security status and legalize their presence in Lebanon.”

 

Reinforcements, Assurances, and Threats

1 June 2018

Al-Qamishli city has experienced great tensions after statements by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on handing over areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to the Syrian government, a security source in the SDF said. The source added that the city has witnessed Kurdish military reinforcements.

“People’s Protection Units (YPG) brought in big military reinforcements from the counterterrorism forces in al-Malkieh north-east of Hasakeh Governorate to al-Qamishli on Thursday evening because of security developments in the city and surrounding countryside,” the source, who asked not to be identified, said to a German news agency.

Syrian sources said that “one of the leaders of the SDF from Tal Hamis south of Qamishli defected and handed himself in to one of the Syrian army’s checkpoints in Thibbaneh village.”

“We will deal with the SDF in one of two options. The first, which is that we began to open doors to negotiations because these forces are made up of Syrians and because we are Syrians who will live with each other. The second option is that if there are no negotiations, we will resort to force because we don’t have any other option,” the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said in an interview with Russia Today channel.

The Pentagon warned the Syrian president not to use force against US-backed Arab and Kurdish fighters to restore areas controlled by them north-east of Syria.

“Any interested party in Syria should understand that attacking US Forces or our coalition partners would be a bad policy,” Lieutenant General Kenneth McKenzie said in a press briefing.

Pentagon spokeswoman Dana White said that the US army is deployed in Syria to fight ISIS. “Our desire is not to get involved in the Syrian civil war,” she said in a press conference.

 

The Lowest Toll

1 June 2018

The toll of civilians killed in May is the lowest since the onset of the conflict seven years ago despite the fact that there were about two hundred and fifty civilians killed, the AFP reported the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) as saying.

The SOHR said that the number of civilian deaths last month was two hundred and forty-four, including fifty-eight children and thirty-three women, which is “the lowest toll in civilian deaths since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution” in 2011.

This decrease in numbers compared with those of previous months comes after government forces controlled all of eastern Ghouta and several towns near Damascus in April.

This control was a result of a military offensive that coincided with fierce aerial and artillery bombardment that left hundreds of civilians dead.

The number of civilians killed in April was three hundred and ninety-five according to the SOHR.

Battle fronts were calm to a large extent last month as the fighting concentrated south of Damascus, where government forces were able to oust ISIS from the last enclave it was entrenched in, and thus Damascus and its countryside were declared as “safe” zones.

Of the civilians killed in May, there were seventy-seven killed in aerial and artillery bombardment by government forces and nineteen others killed as a result of airstrikes carried out by Russia which supports Damascus. Thirty-nine others were killed in airstrikes by the US-led international coalition that targeted pockets controlled by ISIS.

Syria in a Week (14 May 2018)

Syria in a Week (14 May 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

Iranian Nukes … From a Syrian Perspective

8-9 May 2018

Reuters and Al-Jazeera

President Donald Trump declared the US withdrawal from the 2015 Iranian nuclear dear on Tuesday.

The decision came after repeated threats from the US administration to abolish the deal, which it describes as “catastrophic.” Trump signed a presidential memorandum on Wednesday to start imposing strict economic sanctions on Iran, noting the gravity of the deal that allowed Iran to continue enriching uranium, thus increasing the potential of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. (Al-Jazeera)

US pressure failed to convince European partners in the deal to withdraw, as the European Union, Germany, France, and Britain declared that they will remain in the deal. However, the nature of US sanctions imposed on companies that maintain business dealings with Iran will put a lot of pressure on future economic cooperation between Iran and Europe.

Israel, the main beneficiary of sanctions on Iran, welcomed the US withdrawal, as did Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. On its part, Iran said that it would remain in the deal despite the US withdrawal, while Russia and China supported the continuation of the deal (Reuters), reflecting the evident scope of international and regional tensions, which possess great potential for deterioration.

These tensions were manifested on the ground in Syria as the battle between Iran and Israel started to evolve into a direct confrontation. After Israel declared, or leaked, that it attacked Iranian positions or forces in Syria numerous times, including the attack on the T-4 base in central Syria, Iran threatened that Israeli aggressions will not go unpunished.

 

Netanyahu in Moscow and Airstrikes in Syria

7 May 2018

Reuters and Al-Mayadeen

Al-Mayadeen TV channel said on Wednesday that the Resistance Axis carried out a rocket attack on four Israeli military positions in the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, making it the first military offensive in the area since 1974. This offensive came one day after President Trump declared the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal. No one has officially claimed responsibility for the attack. Israel said that Iran launched twenty Grad and Fajr missiles, which were intercepted by the Iron Dome anti-missile system or did not reach their targets in Golan, adding that the Quds Force, a special forces unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard responsible for external operations, is the party that launched the rockets. Israel also said that it carried out rocket attacks on Iranian bases in Syria in retaliation to the “Iranian attacks” on Golan, increasing the fears of deterioration into a large-scale regional conflict.

Syrian official media said that Israel carried out rocket aggressions in the early hours of Thursday, striking air defense positions and an ammunition depot. The Russian news agency reported that Syrian air defenses intercepted half of the Israeli missiles. Official Syrian media sources stated that Israel launched a rocket attack on a target near Damascus on Tuesday, a short time after President Trump’s announcement of the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal. The Israeli army said that after observing “irregular activities” of the Iranian forces in Syria, it issued orders for civil authorities in the Golan Heights to prepare shelters, in addition to deploying new defenses and calling reserve forces. (Reuters)

Russia, Germany, and France called for self-restraint and wisdom, whereas the US administration condemned the Iranian offensive. Trump’s administration portrayed its opposition to the nuclear deal by saying that the opposition, in one of its aspects, is a response to Tehran’s military intervention in the region.

The irony in the regional scene is that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was on a visit to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the eve of the large-scale Israeli offensive on Syria. Israel said that it informed Russia of the attack beforehand. This indicates the complexity of alliances and interests regarding the Syrian war.

The intensity of the escalating rhetoric decreased on Thursday, as Netanyahu considered the response adequate and the Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said that he hoped that the violence with Iran on the Syrian borders was over. It is worth mentioning that the Israeli Ministers for Defense and Energy had previously threatened the Syrian government in case it allowed for the continuation of Iranian presence on Syrian territories.

Regional powers do not seem to be ready to de-escalate as of yet, and there is increasing potential for new forms in the Syrian war with all the investment in arming, aggressions, violations, and incitement, especially when the conflict is linked to issues such as occupation, identity, hegemony, and tyranny.

 

Corrosion of al-Hajar al-Aswad (Black Rock)

13 May 2018

Reuters and Enab Baladi

Fierce battles between government forces and ISIS have continued in the neighborhoods of al-Hajar al-Aswad and Yarmouk Camp south of the capital Damascus. Although the Syrian army is advancing, it is a slow advance accompanied by huge human losses according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, due to the nature of street wars in residential areas and the use of tunnels by ISIS fighters in the battles. As of Sunday, the government holds control of eighty percent of the neighborhood with some parts of Yarmouk Camp still under the control of ISIS

The official SANA news agency said that there were two terrorist explosions, one in Maisat Square and the other in Damascus Tower which left two people dead and fourteen others injured. There were conflicting reports of whether the explosions were a result of a car bomb or rockets launched by ISIS fighters in Yarmouk Camp.

The government expanded their control to the neighborhoods of Yalda, Bibila, and Beit Saham that are adjacent to al-Hajar al-Aswad and Yarmouk Camp after an agreement between Russia and the Syrian government on one hand opposition factions on the other, which provided for the exit of eight thousand six hundred and thirty-two civilians and fighters towards northern Syria, who were distributed between the northern countryside of Aleppo and Idlib. (Enab Baladi)

 

The Last of Enclaves

13 May 2018

Reuters

The last besieged enclave of the opposition is taking the same course of Ghouta. The Syrian government army and opposition factions said that thousands of opposition fighters and civilians left the last main besieged enclave for the opposition in Syria after the factions handed in their heavy weaponry, and opposition fighters not willing to stay started getting ready to leave for areas controlled by opposition forces in northern Syria. This means that future fronts between government forces and opposition factions will be concentrated in the southern front, the north-western countryside of Aleppo, Idlib, and north-east of Syria with the Syrian Democratic Forces.

 

Syria in a Week (30 April 2018)

Syria in a Week (30 April 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

The Last Evacuation from Damascus

29 April 2018

Damascus reached an agreement with opposition factions that provides for the exit of opposition fighters from a site south of the Syrian capital that witnessed a military operation by government forces against ISIS fighters. This declaration came a week after the attack meant to oust ISIS fighters from the southern neighborhoods of the capital, including Yarmouk Camp for Palestinian refugees.

The official Syrian news agency (SANA) said that an agreement was reached on Sunday to evacuate opposition fighters and their family members from areas controlled by the opposition, east of Yarmouk Camp.

SANA cited information about an agreement being reached between the Syrian government and armed groups south of Damascus in the towns of Yalda, Bibeela, and Beit Sahem with guarantees from the Russian army, adding: “the agreement provides for the exit of fighters and their families who wish to leave, and settlement of the situation for those who wish to stay after they hand in their weapons.”

This agreement is the most recent in a series of similar agreements, in which the government took control over areas near the capital after the withdrawal of opposition fighters.

This agreement in Yalda allows the government to deploy forces on the eastern side of Yarmouk Camp, after other units advanced towards the camp from its western side, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR). The SOHR said that eighty-five fighters from government forces and seventy-four fighters from ISIS were killed during the ten-day battle south of Damascus.

 

The Three “Guarantors”

28 April 2018

The foreign ministers of Russia, Turkey, and Iran concluded a several-hour meeting on Saturday in Moscow, stressing the importance of the Astana talks to push for a political settlement for the conflict in Syria.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Jawad Zarif held bilateral and tripartite meetings in Moscow. In a joint press conference held at the end of these discussions, the three ministers stressed the consensus of their views on Syria.

Russia and Iran, which support the Syrian government, along with Turkey, which supports Syrian opposition factions, sponsored the Astana talks that led to the establishment of four de-escalation zones in Syria.

Lavrov said that “the political dialogue in Astana has achieved results” more than other negotiation processes, emphasizing that the Astana talks “stand firmly on their feet” thanks to the “unique” cooperation between the three countries. Lavrov stressed that “Despite some differences, Turkey, Russia, and Iran have a common interest in helping Syrians.”

 

S-300 and Pragmatism

28 April 2018

Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said on Friday in Washington that Israel is not concerned by Russia’s presence in Syria because Moscow is a “pragmatic” actor with whom deals can be struck.

“What is important to understand is that the Russians, they are very pragmatic players,” said Lieberman in response to questions regarding the current alliance between Moscow and Tehran in Syria, during a forum held by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Lieberman, who himself is of Russian origin, said: “At the end of the day they are reasonable guys, and it is possible to close deals with them and we understand what their interests are.” He added, “Their interest is very different from our interest but we respect their priorities. We try to avoid direct frictions and tensions.”

These statements came two days after an interview he made with the Ynet news website, in which he threatened to attack the Russian S-300 air defense system, which Moscow intends to supply Syrian forces with, in case it is used against Israeli targets.

Moscow signed an agreement with Damascus in 2010, in which the former delivers S-300 air defense batteries, however Damascus has not yet received these missiles primarily because of Israeli pressure, according to the Russian newspaper Kommersant.

 

A “Play” in The Hague

27 April 2018

Representatives of several Western countries in the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) denounced what they called a “blatant farce” prepared by Russia when the Syrian delegation in The Hague confirmed that there had been no chemical attack on the city of Douma near Damascus.

According to this delegation, which took the stand in front of representatives of the OPCW in The Hague, with the participation of the Russian Ambassador Alexander Shulgin, the supposed chemical attack in Douma on 7 April, was nothing more than a play.

Britain, followed by France, the United States, and a number of EU countries explicitly denounced the Syrian delegation’s briefing.

“The OPCW is not a theatre,” Peter Wilson, Britain’s envoy to the agency, said in a statement, adding “Russia’s decision to misuse it is yet another Russian attempt to undermine the OPCW’s work.” On his part, France’s Ambassador to the OPCW, Philippe Lalliot, called the Syrian briefing in The Hague an “obscene masquerade” prepared by the Syrian government “that has been killing and using gases against its own people for more than seven years.”

Footage from Douma was widely circulated, in which men, women, and children were sprayed with water after a supposed chemical attack.

In a press conference held in one of The Hague’s hotels, a Syrian man named Khalil, who presented himself as a doctor from Douma, said: “Unknown men created chaos and sprayed people with water … we clearly saw that there were not any symptoms from the use of chemical weapons.”

 

Confiscating Property of the Refugees

27 April 2018

A decree by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, which allows for the confiscation of Syrian refugees’ properties, was met with resentment by the German government.

The German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung, citing a statement from the German foreign ministry, said in its Friday issue that the German government intends to consult with partners in the European Union on “how to confront these treacherous plans.” The ministry’s statement said: “With deep concern, we are following attempts by the Assad government to question, through suspicious legal rules, the ownership of property belonging to numerous Syrians who fled the country.”

The ministry said that the Assad government is seemingly attempting “to radically change the situation in Syria in favor of the government and its supporters, making it difficult for a large number of Syrians to go back.” According to the newspaper’s report, the German government is calling on the United Nations to adopt this issue. The ministry’s statement said: “We call on the supporters of the Assad regime, especially Russia, to do what they can to prevent the implementation of these laws.”

Assad signed a decree this April that allows the Syrian government to put in place developmental property plans. The decree obliges house owners to present proof of ownership of their property within thirty days or else they will lose their entitlement for their property, which will be confiscated by the government. It is difficult for many Syrian refugees, who fled from the Assad government, to carry out these rules under the current circumstances.

 

A Decline in Aid

24-15 April 2018

UN Relief Coordinator Mark Lowcock said on Wednesday that donor countries pledged 4.4 billion dollars to help the Syrian people and the region in 2018, at a time when the UN is seeking to bridge the financial gap of more than six billion dollars.

More than eighty high-level delegations participated in the conference, which was hosted by the European Union and the United Nations in Brussels, with the aim of mobilizing financial support for Syria.

Lowcock said that several major donors, including the United States, had not yet confirmed their pledges for this year because of ongoing internal budget wrangling, adding that despite the shortage in funding “there is no doubt that without holding such conferences and without the funding we guarantee, things would have been much worse.”

The conference, which was attended by representatives from most of the global and regional powers, sought to revive the stalled UN-led peace process.

The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini called on Iran and Russia, the two main allies of the Syrian government, to “exercise pressure on Damascus so that it accepts to sit at the table under the UN auspices.”

The UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura, who is trying to mediate a political agreement to end the conflict, said that he also did not expect a breakthrough after the conference, noting that military gains of the Syrian government will not be politically reflected on the negotiation table.

 

“سوريا على طاولة “الكبار

“سوريا على طاولة “الكبار

الملف السوري يتصدر سلسلة من الاتصالات الدبلوماسية بين الدول الكبرى والإقليمية المنخرطة في هذا الملف، وسط توقعات منخفضة بتمكن المبعوث الدولي ستيفان دي ميستورا من إحياء مفاوضات جنيف، أو تشكيل اللجنة الدستورية «قبل انقشاع غبار» الضربات الثلاثية على مواقع حكومية سورية، وقبل تبلور نتائج هذه اللقاءات.

هذه الاتصالات تشمل اجتماعاً وزارياً للدول السبع الكبار في كندا، والمؤتمر الوزاري للمانحين في بروكسل اليوم وغداً، واجتماعاً خماسياً، أميركياً – بريطانياً – فرنسياً – سعودياً – أردنياً بعد غد، واجتماع ممثلي الدول الـ15 في مجلس الأمن في مزرعة سويدية، واجتماعاً وزارياً روسياً – تركياً – إيرانياً في الأسبوع الأول من الشهر المقبل، إضافة إلى قمة الرئيسين الأميركي دونالد ترمب والفرنسي مانويل ماكرون.

السبع الكبار

عقد ممثلو الدول السبع الكبار محادثات في تورونتو في كندا، تناولت كوريا الشمالية وسوريا وروسيا. وبحسب مسؤول أميركي، فإنه فيما يتعلق بروسيا «كانت ثمة وحدة بين دول مجموعة السبع على مواجهة سلوك روسيا الخبيث. وراجعت الدول الخطوات التي اتخذتها لمواجهة توجهات الكرملين السلبية التي تهدد السلام والأمن»، لافتاً إلى أن الدول السبع قالت إن روسيا هي «ضامن الأسلحة الكيماوية في سوريا، وفشلت في هذا الدور». وقال القائم باعمال وزير الخارجية الاميركي جون سوليفان ان موسكو «ستحاسب» اذا لم تغير سلوكها في سوريا.
وقال مسؤول غربي آخر لـ«الشرق الأوسط» أمس، إن روسيا أخذت على عاتقها في الاتفاق بين موسكو وواشنطن في عام 2013 «التخلص من الترسانة الكيماوية؛ لكن لم تفشل في فعل ذلك وحسب؛ بل إن استخدام الكيماوي كان يتم تحت أنظارها منذ نهاية 2015. الروس لم يفشلوا في الوفاء بالتزاماتهم؛ بل وفروا الحماية لاستخدام الكيماوي».

وتابع بأن «الضربات الثلاثية بهذا المعنى كانت محسوبة ومحددة الهدف، ولم تكن مفاجئة، ولم يكن هدفها تغيير الميزان العسكري على الأرض، إذ إن الدول الثلاث أعلنت أكثر من مرة ضرورة التزام الخط الأحمر بعدم استخدام الكيماوي. وهذه الدول ستبقى تحرس الخط الأحمر». ضمن هذا السياق، تدعم لندن وواشنطن مبادرة باريس لـ«الشراكة ضد التهرب من المحاسبة على استعمال الكيماوي»، إضافة إلى تأسيس «آليات للتحقيق في استخدامه» وطرح المحاسبة خارج اطار مجلس الأمن.

وتنفي دمشق وموسكو مسؤولية قوات الحكومة السورية عن قصف دوما ومناطق أخرى في البلاد. وتتراوح اتهامات دمشق وموسكو بين مسؤولية المعارضة أو «فبركة هذه الهجمات» من معارضين. وقال مسؤول أميركي: «لم يكن هجوم الحلفاء في 13 أبريل (نيسان) لمرة واحدة؛ بل كان جزءاً من حملة متواصلة للحلفاء لإعادة إرساء رادع ضد الأسلحة الكيماوية، ويتضمن ذلك استخدام الوسائل العسكرية مرة أخرى، إذا لزم الأمر». ويختلف موقف الدول السبع إزاء تقويم الدور الروسي. إذ قال المسؤول الغربي أمس، إن «روسيا لم تمارس أي ضغط على دمشق للانخراط في العملية السياسية؛ بل إنها قادت الهجوم على غوطة دمشق»، فيما قال وزير الخارجية الألماني هايكو ماس، الاثنين، إن وزراء خارجية مجموعة الدول السبع الكبرى، يدعون روسيا بشكل رسمي للمساعدة في حل الأزمة السورية. وأفاد بأن البيان الختامي «يقول إنه لن يكون هناك حل سياسي في سوريا دون روسيا وإن روسيا يتعين أن تقدم نصيبها من المساهمة في التوصل لهذا الحل».

إعادة الأعمار

وقال مسؤول أميركي في سياق تقويمه لنتائج الاجتماع السباعي: «لا تعتقد الولايات المتحدة بأنه ينبغي أن تصل أي مساعدة لإعادة الإعمار إلى أي منطقة تخضع لسيطرة النظام السوري»، لافتا إلى التمييز بين «إعادة الأعمار» التي تربط واشنطن ودول أوروبية المساهمة فيها بالحل السياسي، و«الاستقرار» الذي تقوم به واشنطن والتحالف الدولي في المناطق المحررة من «داعش».

وسيكون الموقف من المساهمة في إعادة الأعمار رئيسيا، في المؤتمر الوزاري الذي يبدأ اليوم في بروكسل. وقال المسؤول الغربي: «على روسيا أن تقرر: إما أن تدفع دمشق نحو حل سياسي، وإما أن تدعم العمليات العسكرية، بحيث ترث روسيا دولة فاشلة ومدمرة ومارقة… من دون إعادة إعمار».

وبالنسبة إلى لندن، التي قدمت 2.46 مليار جنيه إسترليني استجابة للأزمة السورية منذ عام 2012، هناك أولوية في مؤتمر بروكسل إزاء توفير دعم المانحين لدعم 13 مليون سوري، بينهم خمسة ملايين في أمسّ الحاجة للإغاثة، إضافة إلى التأكد من آليات صرف الأموال والضغط لتوفير خطوط الإمداد. ويتوقع أن تطالب وزيرة التنمية الدولية بيني موردنت في مؤتمر «دعم مستقبل سوريا والمنطقة» غدا «جميع الأطراف في الصراع السوري، بمن فيهم روسيا، بحماية المدنيين ووضع نهاية للمعاناة في سوريا».

الاجتماع الخماسي

اقترحت باريس عقد اجتماع خماسي لبحث الأوضاع السياسية والعسكرية، بعد عدم وفاء موسكو بالتزاماتها تنفيذ نتائج «مؤتمر الحوار الوطني السوري» في سوتشي، نهاية يناير (كانون الثاني) الماضي. ويتوقع أن يعقد الاجتماع بعد مؤتمر بروكسل، بحيث يدعو «روسيا لحمل النظام على المشاركة في المفاوضات، لوقف قتل المدنيين الأبرياء، والدفاع عن القواعد والمعايير العالمية التي تحافظ على سلامتنا جميعاً، والسعي للتوصل إلى تسوية لإنهاء الصراع». لكن بحسب دبلوماسيين التقوا وزيري الخارجية والدفاع الروسيين سيرغي لافروف وسيرغي شويغو، فإن موسكو «ليست في مزاج البحث عن مسار سياسي حالياً، خصوصاً بعد الضربات الثلاثية؛ بل هي متفرغة للموضوع العسكري ولا تريد للدول الغربية أن تستفيد سياسياً من الضربات». وقال دبلوماسي: «بعدما كانت موسكو تتحفظ على عملية غوطة دمشق، باتت الآن تقود العمليات، الأمر الذي يمكن أن يحصل في هجوم آخر على ريف حمص ومناطق أخرى»؛ لافتاً إلى أن «خلوة السويد» لم تؤد إلى اختراق؛ بل إنها زوت بعض الجليد، إلى حد لا يصل إلى موافقة روسيا على مسودة قرار دولي فرنسية عن الكيماوي والمساعدات الإنسانية واللجنة الدستورية. وابلغ الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين نظيره الفرنسي ايمانويل ماكرون امس ان الضربات «عقدت التسوية السياسية».

وتسعى موسكو إلى التركيز على مسارها السياسي – العسكري، عبر عقد اجتماع وزاري للدول الضامنة لعملية آستانة، لبحث اتفاقات خفض التصعيد، والمقايضات المتعلقة بتهجير معارضين من ريف دمشق إلى مناطق سيطرة فصائل تدعمها أنقرة، إضافة إلى تفاهمات لنشر نقاط مراقبة تركية في إدلب، وإمكانية التفاهم لتمركز قوات الحكومة السورية في جسر الشغور وسهل الغاب، وترك إدلب للتفاهمات الثلاثية. وسيكون هذا ضمن محادثات وزير الخارجية التركي مولود جاويش أوغلو في لندن، بين 11 و13 الشهر المقبل.
في المقابل، فإن حلفاء واشنطن، الذين لاحظوا أن عملية الجيش التركي في عفرين شتتت قوى «قوات سوريا الديمقراطية» والأكراد، يركزون على بحث مستقبل الوجود الأميركي شرق نهر الفرات وشمال سوريا. وسيكون هذا بنداً أساسياً في محادثات ترمب – ماكرون؛ إذ إن الجانب الفرنسي يقترح دوراً ميدانياً ونشر قوات فرنسية على الأرض، مقابل الحصول على غطاء جوي من التحالف الدولي بقيادة أميركا.

البعد العسكري الآخر، يتعلق بإمكانية حصول مواجهة إيرانية – إسرائيلية في سوريا. وقال المسؤول الغربي: «فشل الروس في الوفاء بالتزاماتهم بإبعاد (حزب الله) وفصائل إيرانية من حدود الأردن والجولان من جهة، وتعزيز (حزب الله) وإيران وجودهما في الجنوب السوري ووسط البلاد من جهة ثانية، يدفعان إسرائيل إلى إمكانية التحرك». وأضاف: «إسرائيل لا تريد الجلوس ومراقبة هذه التطورات، لذلك فإن إمكانية الحرب واردة؛ خصوصاً أن إيران تربط ذلك بمستقبل الاتفاق النووي» الذي يقرر ترمب في شأنه، منتصف الشهر المقبل.

تم نشر هذا المقال في «الشرق الأوسط»