بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | يوليو 10, 2019 | Syria in a Week, غير مصنف
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Germany Welcome
8 July 2019
Despite the explicit rejection of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) – member of the ruling coalition in Germany – to the United States’ demand to send German ground troops to Syria, there is preliminary openness to Germany’s role in the Syrian mission on other levels.
Fritz Felgentreu, a defense affairs expert in the party’s parliamentary bloc, told the German newspaper Rainersche Post on Monday that continuing to support the elimination of ISIS is in Germany’s interest, “however, we certainly cannot send soldiers to Syria for legal reasons.”
The United States asked Germany to support the war against ISIS remnants by sending ground troops to help the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in north-east Syria.
The US Special Envoy to Syria James Jeffrey and the International Coalition Against ISIS want the German government to send training troops, logistic experts, and technicians from the German army.
Iraq Wants a Settlement
8 July 2019
Iraqi President Barham Salih called on Sunday for a political settlement to the Syrian crisis to end the suffering of the Syrian people.
During a meeting with US Special Envoy to Syria James Jeffrey and US Ambassador to Iraq Matthew Tueller, the Iraqi president stressed “the importance of finding a political settlement for the situation in Syria and ending the suffering of our Syrian brothers and helping them confront terrorism, while emphasizing that our priority is protecting Iraq’s security, stability, and sovereignty.”
Jeffrey reiterated “the United States’ keenness to strengthen its relations with Iraq in all areas and its desire to expand joint cooperation and coordination on emerging issues at the regional and international levels.”
Airstrikes Against Idlib
7 July 2019
At least twelve civilians, including three children, were killed on Sunday as a result of government strikes on areas in northwest Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
Idlib and neighboring areas, which are controlled by Tahrir al-Sham (previously Nusra) and home to three million people, have been subject to an escalation of bombardment for more than two months accompanied by fierce battles concentrated in the northwestern countryside of Hama.
The SOHR registered the death of six civilians as a result of shells fired by government forces while they were working in farms in the village of Qastoon in the northwestern countryside of Hama.
It also reported the death of a child as a result of airstrikes on the village of al-Ziyadiyeh in the countryside of Hama.
Four other civilians, including a man and his child, were killed in an airstrike on the countryside of Ma’eret al-No’man in the southern countryside of Idlib.
A child was killed in a missile attack on a farm in the village of Jadariya in the western countryside of Idlib.
This toll comes after the SOHR said that twenty civilians had been killed, including six children, as a result of Syrian-Russian shelling of the area since late Friday.
Since the beginning of the escalation in late April, at least five hundred and forty civilians have been killed as a result of Syrian and Russian airstrikes and bombardment, in addition to eight hundred and fifty-nine people from jihadist factions and seven hundred and forty-eight people from government forces and allied militants, according to the SOHR.
The bombardment and shelling have damaged at least twenty-five medical facilities and forty-five schools in the southern countryside of Idlib and northern countryside of Hama, according to the United Nations.
Oil Tanker Seized
7 July 2019
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghachi said on Sunday that the Iranian oil tanker intercepted by British authorities in Gibraltar was not destined to Syria, contrary to what authorities in London confirm.
In a press conference in Tehran, Araghachi said that the Grace 1 tanker was carrying “Iranian oil” and that “contrary to what the British government alleges, the tanker was not heading toward Syria… it was going somewhere else,” without saying where the vessel was going.
“The name of the Syrian port mentioned by the British (Banias) does not have a dock capable of receiving such a large tanker.”
Araghachi said that the vessel “is a super tanker able to haul two million barrels… and therefore it cannot pass through the Suez Canal,” to go to the Mediterranean.
British forces had earlier arrested the Iranian vessel near Gibraltar, south of Spain, in an operation considered by Tehran as an act of piracy.
According to authorities in Gibraltar, the ship was seized in British waters in an area claimed by Spain as part of its kingdom.
Iran called for the “immediate” release of the ship, however, British courts ruled that it can be seized until 19 July.
A Gulf Guest to Assad
7 July 2019
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad received on Sunday Oman’s Minister Responsible for Foreign Affairs Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah.
Developments on the regional and international fronts were discussed during the meeting, especially attempts to obliterate Arab historical rights in light of the current crises and difficult circumstances in the area, Syrian news agency SANA said.
Al-Assad and bin Alawi also discussed the political and economic challenges imposed on the whole area and how to confront them in various arenas.
Return to al-Qsair
7 July 2019
A local Syrian official said on Sunday that around one thousand people from the city of al-Qsair in the western countryside of Homs have returned to their city after being displaced for more than seven years.
“Nine hundred and sixty-nine people from four hundred and forty-two families returned to their homes in al-Qsair. These families lived in Hissyeh, al-Braij, and al-Qalamon after their displacement, which has lasted more than seven years,” Tony Kasuhah, a member of the city council in al-Qsair, told a German news agency.
Kasuhah said that another patch of the city’s inhabitants would be returning in the upcoming days after rehabilitating basic services in the city.
A source in the Syrian opposition said that the return of the city’s inhabitants was “ceremonial and a media stunt on part of the Syrian government,” adding that “most of those who returned are employees in the Syrian government and were forced to return to send a message to the world that the government is working on bringing displaced people back to their areas.”
Al-Qsair, located near the border with Lebanon, is considered one of the major cities in the governorate of Homs. It has a population of around fifty thousand people and more than eighty villages are associated with it.
“Pressuring” Syrians in Lebanon
5 July 2019
Human Rights Watch on Friday condemned the Lebanese authorities’ order to tear down cement rooms built by Syrian refugees in unofficial camps, considering it “illegitimate pressure” on them to return to their county.
The Lebanese army started on Monday to demolish cement rooms in the camps in eastern Lebanon, after the authorities gave refugees living in the border town of Arsal a deadline to demolish the room that are considered “illegitimate” by the authorities and raise the fears of officials that these camps may turn into permanent settlements.
“This crackdown on housing code violations should be seen for what it is, which is illegitimate pressure on Syrian refugees to leave Lebanon,” Human Rights Watch refugee rights director Bill Frelick said.
“Many of those affected have real reasons to fear returning to Syria, including arrests, torture, and ill-treatment by Syrian intelligence branches,” he said
The demolition order affects around thirty-five thousand Syrian refugees living in various areas in Lebanon, according to the UN High Commission for Refugees. Between twelve thousand and five hundred to fifteen thousand of them live in Arsal, including at least seven thousand and five hundred children, according to human rights groups, which said earlier that less than half of the rooms that should have been demolished in Arsal were actually brought down by the refugees themselves.
Lebanese authorities estimate the number of current Syrian refugees in Lebanon at around one and a half million, whereas data from the UN refugee agency puts the number at less than one million.
Explosion in Sweida
3 July 2019
Five civilians were killed on Wednesday in a suicide explosion in the predominantly Druz city of Sweida south of Syria, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
“The suicide explosion used a motorcycle and targeted a street in the Qanawat area northeast of Sweida city… this resulted in the death of five civilians and the injury of thirteen others,” head of the SOHR Rami Abdul Rahman told the AFP.
The official Syrian news agency SANA said that “a number of martyrs” fell in the explosion and posted photos showing a burned motorcycle and blood stains on the ground.
This is the first suicide attack in the governorate after the large-scale attack about one year ago on 25 July, which was claimed by ISIS and left more than two hundred and sixty people dead.
At the time, ISIS kidnapped thirty Druz women and children, most of whom were freed after three and a half months of their kidnap. ISIS executed a number of the abductees as well.
200 Corpses in a Cemetery in Raqqa
2 July 2019
A specialized local team in northern Syria found at least two hundred corpses, some of them believed to belong to victims of ISIS, inside a new mass grave in Raqqa city, a local official told the AFP on Wednesday.
Yaser al-Khamis, head of the first response team in Raqqa, said, “the grave includes dozens of holes, each one has five corpses.” He also mentioned finding the corpses of five people wearing orange uniforms, which is what the radical group forced its hostages to wear. The SOHR confirmed the same number of corpses inside this graveyard.
New Strikes
2 July 2019
Syria on Tuesday accused Israel of committing “state terrorism” after Israeli airstrikes which targeted several military positions and killed fifteen people including six civilians, according to the SOHR.
“Israeli authorities are increasingly practicing state terrorism,” the Syrian foreign ministry said in a statement carried by the official SANA news agency.
“The latest heinous Israeli aggression falls within the framework of ongoing Israeli attempts to prolong the crisis in Syria,” it added.
Israeli missiles targeted late Sunday military positions near Damascus and in the governorate of Homs. Damascus said its air defenses downed a number of these missiles, without specifying the targeted positions. The SOHR, however, said the missiles hit several military positions where Iranian and Hezbollah fighters are deployed, including a center for scientific research and a military airport.
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | يونيو 26, 2019 | Syria in a Week, غير مصنف
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Appeal for Calm in Idlib
Reuters
18 June 2019
UN chief Antonio Guterres appealed to Russia and Turkey on Tuesday to stabilize northwest Syria “without delay.” UN aid chief Mark Lowcock said that some hospitals were not sharing their locations with the warring parties because that “paints a target on their back.”
Russia and Turkey co-sponsored a de-escalation pact for the area that has been in place since last year. But the deal has faltered in recent months, forcing hundreds of thousands of civilians to flee.
“I am deeply concerned about the escalation of the fighting in Idlib, and the situation is especially dangerous given the involvement of an increased number of actors… even in the war on terrorism, there should be full compliance to international law on human rights and international humanitarian laws,” Guterres told reporters.
Lowcock told the UN Security Council later on Tuesday that since late April the World Health Organization had confirmed twenty-six incidents affecting healthcare facilities in northwest Syria. He said two of the facilities were located in areas controlled by the Syrian government. “Hitting a facility whose coordinates were shared as part of the UN’s deconfliction system is simply intolerable. A number of partners now feel that supplying geographical coordinates to be given to the warring parties effectively paints a target on their backs,” he said.
The UN was reconsidering its deconfliction system and would inform the Security Council next week of its conclusions, Lowcock added.
Avoiding Confrontation with Turkey
Reuters
18 June 2019
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem said that Syria does not want to see fighting with Turkey after the latter said one of its observation posts in Idlib was attacked from an area controlled by the Syrian government forces.
“We hope that our military and the Turkish military do not fight. This is our principled stance,” Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem told reporters in Beijing, standing alongside the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. “What we are fighting is terrorists, especially in Idlib, which is a Syrian territory, and part of our country,” al-Moualem said.
The dominant force in the Idlib region is Tahrir al-Sham, which was previously known as Nusra Front that was part of al Qaeda until 2016. Others, including some with Turkish backing, also have a presence.
“The question now is, what is Turkey doing in Syria? Turkey is occupying part of Syrian soil, and has a military presence in certain parts of Syria,” al-Moualem added. “Are they protecting the Nusra Front? Are they protecting certain terrorist forces including the East Turkestan Islamic Movement?” he added, referring to an extremist group China blames for attacks in far western Xinjiang with operations elsewhere.
“This question needs to be asked of Turkey, what are their actual aims? We are fighting those terrorist groups and organizations. The whole world believes those people we are fighting are terrorists,” he added.
Since April, Syrian government forces have stepped up shelling and bombing of the area, killing scores of people. The opposition says the government action is part of a campaign for an assault that would breach the de-escalation pact. The government and its Russian allies say the action is in response to rebel violations, including the presence of fighters in a demilitarized zone.
China has long urged that a diplomatic resolution to the Syrian civil war be found and has hosted Syrian government and opposition figures. Wang said that China will continue to support Syria to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity and fight against terror, and will help with Syria’s economic reconstruction efforts.
Explosions in the Eastern Countryside of Aleppo
Enab Baladi
23 June 2019
Three explosions were reported in the opposition-controlled eastern countryside of Aleppo in the last twenty-four hours, killing and injuring civilians and military personnel. An explosive device went off as it was being dismantled in the city of al-Bab in the eastern countryside of Aleppo last night. The explosive device was planted in an SUV for Failaq al-Sham. The explosion killed two members of the engineering and police teams of the National General Security.
This was preceded by a motorcycle bomb on the Raii road in the northern side of al-Bab on Saturday, which injured fifteen civilians including two children. In the city of Jarablus, which is under the control of the ‘National Army’, a motorcycle bomb exploded in the city center on Saturday, injuring a number of civilians and causing material damage. The cities and towns of the northern and eastern countryside of Aleppo have repeatedly witnessed explosions caused by explosive devices and motorcycle bombs, killing civilians and military personnel, in addition to vast material damage. The majority of the explosions occurred near popular markets and civilian gatherings.
Opposition factions accused the People’s Protection Units (YPG) of carrying out these explosions. Whereas the YPG accused opposition factions of smuggling explosive devices into the areas they control.
Law of Military Conscription in the Self-Administration
Enab Baladi
23 June 2019
The Self-Administration in northeast Syria indorsed a conscription law dubbed the “Self-Defense Law,” which contains thirty-five articles identifying the conditions for service in its military forces. The official website for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the military arm of the Self-Administration, said on Saturday that the general council in the administration “indorsed the law of the Self-Defense duty and the rules of procedure for the defense office.” The new law for military service includes thirty-five provisions that stipulate the terms for the service, postponement, and exemption, in addition to all laws in regard to those subject to conscription in the Self-Administration areas. The council set the period for compulsory service at twelve months. All males between the ages of eighteen and forty are subject to this law.
The Self Defense law obliges individuals in the Self-Administration areas to join the military and security forces to defend areas under its control and the border, just like compulsory service in regular armies. The law stipulates that those subject to compulsory service are the ones who have reached the legal age, resided in that area for more than five years, and hold Syrian citizenship, in addition to foreigners and those who do not possess birth certificates. In regards to women, the new law allowed them to join the duty of self-defense on a voluntary basis, according to the statement.
The new law is part of a series of political and military procedures taken by the Self-Administration in the areas it controls, months after eliminating the influence of the Islamic State in those areas with support from the US-led international coalition.
US-Iranian Escalation
Reuters
22, 24 June 2019
United Nations chief Antonio Guterres warned on Sunday that it is essential to avoid “any form of escalation” in the Gulf as tensions continue to rise following the shooting down of an unmanned US drone this week by Iran. “The world cannot afford a major confrontation in the Gulf… Everybody must keep nerves of steel,” Guterres said on the sidelines of a world conference.
Iran said on Saturday it would respond firmly to any US threat amid escalating tension between Tehran and Washington over the shooting down of an unmanned US drone by Tehran. An Iranian missile destroyed a US Global Hawk surveillance drone on Thursday. Tehran said that the drone was shot down over its territory, whereas Washington said the incident happened in international airspace.
US President Donald Trump said on Friday he called off a military strike to retaliate because it could have killed one hundred and fifty people, and signaled he was open to talks with Tehran.
Speaking in Washington on Saturday before heading to the US presidential retreat at Camp David, Trump said the US government was imposing new sanctions on Tehran. “We are putting additional sanctions on Iran,” Trump told reporters. “In some cases we are going slowly, but in other cases we are moving rapidly.”
Military action was “always on the table,” the president added, but he said he was open to reversing the escalation and could quickly reach a deal with Iran that he said would bolster the country’s flagging economy.
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | أكتوبر 9, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Change in Discourse: Temporary or Permanent?
Will the fate of the settlement in Idlib be different from those in other areas that preceded it in the Syrian war, especially with all actors insisting on their strategies and Russia and the Syrian government affirming their goal in having the Syrian army regain control over all the country? Will the Russian-Turkish negotiations determine the “price” for the agreement on Idlib’s fate, including their position regarding the Kurdish issue in Syria?
Russian “Keenness”: No Major Operations in Idlib
2 – 3 October 2018
Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that the de-escalation zone in Idlib was effective and that there are no plans for major military operations in the area. “And that means, no large scale military actions are expected there … Military action for the sake of military action is unnecessary,” he said. However, Putin added that Moscow wants to see all foreign troops withdraw from Syria eventually, including Russian forces. He also said that the presence of US forces in Syria is “a breach of the UN charter.”
It is noteworthy that the Syrian government, through a statement by Foreign Minister Walid Moulem, confirmed that Turkey is capable of carrying out its obligations under the Idlib agreement.
Turkish Keenness … Withdrawal and Elections
2, 4, 6 October 2018
Reuters
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday that Turkey would not leave Syria until the Syrian people hold elections. “Whenever the Syrian people hold an election, we will leave Syria to its owners after they hold their elections,” Erdogan said at a forum in Istanbul. He also said that Turkey is not experiencing difficulty in conducting talks with radical groups in Idlib, the last major area still under the control of armed opposition.
Erdogan pledged to strengthen Turkish observations posts in Idlib.
The Turkish role was manifested in armed opposition groups withdrawing their heavy weaponry from the demilitarized zone agreed upon by Turkey and Russia in north-west of Syria. The National Front for Liberation said in a statement that the process of withdrawing heavy weapons had begun, but the fighters would remain in their positions within the demilitarized zone. Opposition forces in northern Syria said on Tuesday that Tukey had confirmed that Russian forces would not deploy in the area.
On the other hand, Erdogan said on Monday that Turkey is seeking to secure the area east of the Euphrates in northern Syria by eliminating the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, in continuation of the Turkish strategy towards the Kurds.
Iranian Keenness … Response to Ahwaz in Boukamal
2 October 2018
Reuters
Iranian “rage” over the Ahwaz attack burst in Syria as Iran said that the missile attack it carried out in Syria on Monday had killed forty “top leaders” in ISIS.
Iran fired six missiles at targets in Boukamal and Hajin regions in eastern Syria, in retaliation for the attack on a military parade in Iran on 22 September that killed twenty-five people, nearly half of them members of the Revolutionary Guard.
Israeli Keenness
3, 4, 5 October 2018
Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday he will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin soon to discuss security coordination over Syria, amid friction with Moscow over Israel’s air operations.
On Tuesday, Russia said it had upgraded Syria’s air defenses with the S-300 missile system, after accusing Israel of indirect responsibility for the downing of a Russian spy plane by Syrian forces as they fired on attacking Israeli jets last month. There have been no reports of Israeli air strikes in Syria since the Russia plane was shot down.
The French foreign ministry said on Friday that Russia’s deployment of the S-300 system in Syria risks fueling military escalation and hindering prospects for a political solution to the seven-year civil war.
General Joseph Votel, who oversees US forces in the Middle East, said that the deployment seemed to be an effort by Moscow to help shield “nefarious activities” by Iranian and Syrian forces in the country.
German Keenness Against Chemical Weapons
3 October 2018
Reuters
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Wednesday that his country and the United States agreed on the need to do everything possible to prevent the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Maas comments came after a meeting with his US counterpart Mike Pompeo in Washington. He also said that Pompeo understood the scope of the political debate in Germany concerning the potential participation in any US-led military response in the event of a chemical attack.
Aid Keenness and Economies of War
4 October 2018
Reuters
The Unites States Agency for International Development and the British Department for International Development found out that Bab al-Hawa border crossing in north-western Syria is being used by extremist groups to collect taxes from aid trucks. Therefore, they directed their partners to stop all use of the border crossing starting from 26 September.
Tahrir al-Sham, the main Islamic group in Idlib governorate, is designated a terrorist organization by the United Nations, the United States, and Turkey. Bab al-Hawa is the only official border crossing connecting Turkey to the Idlib governorate, where an estimated 2.1 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance. Around two thousand and two hundred and eighty-four trucks carrying aid went through the crossing in the first eight months of this year, according to David Swanson of the United Nation’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
US Keenness for the Kurds!
2 & 3 October 2018
Reuters
Kurdish officials said that a series of visits by US diplomats to Syria in the last two months to renew preparations to discuss the future of the country indicate a long-term commitment. US forces are seen as a shield against Turkish attacks from the north and any attempt by the Syrian government to seize the region’s wheat and oil fields.
The number of US diplomats in Syria has doubled as ISIS fighters near a military defeat, US Defense Secretary James Mattis said on Tuesday. “Our diplomats there on the ground have been doubled in number. As we see the military operations becoming less, we will see the diplomatic effort now able to take root,” Mattis said.
بواسطة Abdullah Al Hassan | أكتوبر 5, 2018 | News, غير مصنف
بدأ اختلاف وجهات النظر حول التعاطي مع قضية الشمال السوري يظهر بين الدول الثلاث الضامنة للقاء أستانا (روسيا وتركيا وإيران) بعد اجتماع طهران الأخير، جاء ذلك بعد تنسيق وتعاون كبير بين هذه الدول نتج عنه نجاح الخطة الروسية لوقف إطلاق النار في مناطق خفض التصعيد، ثم مساعدة الجيش السوري للسيطرة عليها، في الغوطة الشرقية وجبال القلمون الشرقية، ثم جنوب دمشق ومخيم اليرموك، وبعدها في ريف حمص الشمالي، وأخيراً في درعا في الجنوب السوري. إلا أن مصالح وأولويات هذه الدول بدأت تتعارض فيما بينها عندما وصل الأمر إلى محافظة إدلب، وخاصة بعد أن تراجعت الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية عن نيّتها سحب قواتها من منطقة شرق الفرات في الوقت الراهن.
معادلة معقدة من المصالح والرغبات تدير علاقات الدول الثلاث، إضافة إلى الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، ورغم أن الحكومة الروسية تدير الحل في سوريا، إلا أنها لا تستطيع الاستغناء عن التعاون والتنسيق مع هذه الدول، فكل منها تملك أدوات مؤثرة قادرة على تعطيل الحل، وبالتالي يتحتم على روسيا المساومة وفي بعض الأحيان تقديم المكاسب لتلك الدول، مقابل تحقيق التقدم على مسار الحل في سوريا.
فلولا التعاون مع تركيا لما تمكنت روسيا من تحقيق التقدم في خطتها للحل منذ تدخّلها في سوريا، في نهاية سبتمبر/أيلول ٢٠١٥، إذ تملك تركيا العديد من المفاتيح الهامة في الداخل السوري، وخاصة في الشمال، كما ظهر واضحاً في إعادة سيطرة الجيش السوري على مدينة حلب في ديسمبر/كانون الأول ٢٠١٦. بدا أيضاً التأثير التركي في جولات محادثات أستانا العشر ومناطق خفض التصعيد، وكان واضحاً في عملية ”غصن الزيتون“ في مدينة عفرين السورية، وكذلك الأمر في إنجاح ”مؤتمر الحوار الوطني السوري“ في سوتشي، والذي نتج عن كواليس تحضيره توافق دولي بشأن اللجنة الدستورية السورية.
أما تركيا فلديها مخاوف على أمنها القومي بعد تعاظم قوة حزب الإتحاد الديمقراطي PYD الكردي في الشمال السوري، والذي تضعه على قائمة المنظمات الإرهابية، ولتأمين حدودها والدخول بجيشها للشمال السوري كان عليها أن تتعاون مع الحكومة الروسية، فجرت المقايضة على تسليم مدينة حلب للنظام السوري، مقابل عملية ”درع الفرات“ التركية في مدينتي الباب وجرابلس، ومن ثم عملية ”غصن الزيتون“ في مدينة عفرين. كذلك استطاعت تركيا نشر قواتها في اثنتي عشرة نقطة مراقبة على كامل حدود سيطرة المعارضة السورية في محافظة إدلب بعد اتفاق أستانا ٤، مما جعل المنطقة بما فيها من فصائل المعارضة تابعة بشكل كامل ومباشر للمخابرات التركية، وهذا أعطاها مزيداً من أوراق القوة لتحقيق مصالحها، وربما أصبحت تهدد وحدة الأراضي السورية خاصة في مناطق سيطرة ”درع الفرات“ و ”غصن الزيتون“.
أما التنسيق الروسي – الأمريكي، فبدأ مع التدخل الروسي في سوريا بعيداً عن وسائل الإعلام، إلا أن نتائجه ظهرت مع سيطرة الجيش السوري على مدينة درعا والجنوب السوري بعد تخلي الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية عن فصائل المعارضة هناك.
جاءت هذه السيطرة بعد تفاهمات ثلاثية روسية – أمريكية – أردنية وثنائية بين روسيا واسرائيل، حيث ضمن الجانب الروسي الحفاظ على أمن إسرائيل من خلال إعادة العمل باتفاق ”فك الإشتباك“ بين سوريا وإسرائيل لعام ١٩٧٤، وإبعاد ميليشيا تدعمها إيران إلى ما وراء محور دمشق – السويداء، إضافة إلى منح إسرائيل ضوءاً أخضر لشن عمليات عسكرية داخل الأراضي السورية على مصادر الخطر المحتملة عليها.
بكل الأحوال أبقت الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية قاعدة ”التنف“ جنوباً في زاوية الحدود السورية الأردنية العراقية بحجة مراقبة تنفيذ ما اتفقت عليه هذه الأطراف. وبالعودة للشمال، سارع ”مجلس سوريا الديمقراطية“ -والذي يشكل ”حزب الاتحاد الديمقراطي“ الكردي عموده الفقري،- لعقد لقاء في دمشق مع ممثلي النظام السوري في نهاية يوليو/تموز ٢٠١٨.
وجاء هذا اللقاء بتسهيل روسي ومباركة أمريكية، بعد إعادة سيطرة النظام السوري على كامل مناطق المعارضة في وسط وجنوب البلاد، وإثر حديث سابق للرئيس الأمريكي دونالد ترامب أوضح فيه نيته سحب قواته من شمال شرقي سوريا بعد القضاء على “داعش،” أما ما نتج عنه فهو تشكيل لجان بين الطرفين لحل القضايا العالقة.
في ظل كل هذه الظروف المواتية، حشد النظام السوري وحلفاؤه الروس قواتهم لحصار محافظة إدلب، آخر معقل للمعارضة في سوريا، بهدف استرجاعها، لكن الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية خلطت الأوراق و ظهرت تسريبات تفيد بأن الحكومة الأمريكية حسمت قرارها بالإبقاء على جنودها شمال شرقي سوريا، لمحاربة ”داعش“ ومنع تشكيلها من جديد، إضافة لمراقبة الوجود الإيراني في سوريا والضغط لسحب هذه الميلشيات وعودتها إلى بلادها. كما يمكن أن يستخدم التواجد الأمريكي شرق نهر الفرات للضغط نحو تحقيق حل سياسي في سوريا وتنفيذ القرار ٢٢٥٤ وإجراء إصلاحات دستورية.
أفزع هذا القرار الأمريكي الحكومة التركية، وأصبحت المصلحة التركية تقتضي التمسك بمحافظة إدلب والحفاظ على فصائل المعارضة المتواجدة فيها لحماية الأمن القومي التركي، وهذا ما عبّر عنه الرئيس التركي رجب طيب أردوغان في كلمته الافتتاحية في قمة طهران حين قال ”إن مستقبل منطقة إدلب لا يتعلق بمستقبل سوريا فقط، وإنما يتعلق بمستقبل تركيا أيضاً، وبالأمن والاستقرار في تركيا“. ويبدو أن موقف إيران تماشى مع الموقف التركي، فمن مصلحة إيران أيضاً التخلص من التهديد الأمريكي في المنطقة، والذي يرصد كامل الحدود الشرقية لسوريا، كاشفاً الكثير من نقاط العبور والانتشار الإيراني في الداخل السوري، مما يمّكن إسرائيل من تحديد تلك الأهداف وضربها.
وهكذا اتفق الجانبان التركي والإيراني على أن تكون الأولوية لشرق نهر الفرات وليس لغربه، على الرغم من أن ذلك يتعارض مع خطة الحل الروسي في سوريا، والتي تهدف لإعادة السيطرة على كافة مناطق وجيوب المعارضة السورية بحجة القضاء على جبهة النصرة (هيئة تحرير الشام) قبل نهاية عام ٢٠١٨. أما مشكلة الأكراد شمال شرق سوريا، فتعتبر موسكو أنها قابلة للحل عبر الحوار بين ”مجلس سوريا الديمقراطية“ والنظام السوري، خاصة بعد الدرس القاسي الذي تلقاه الأكراد في مدينة عفرين، حين تخلّت الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية عنهم، كذلك فعلت روسيا، بعد أن رفض الأكراد مقترحاً روسياً يقضي إلى دخول الجيش السوري إلى المدينة لحمايتها من تقدم الجيش التركي وحلفائه في المعارضة السورية ضمن عملية “غصن الزيتون.”
الآن، وبعد الاتفاق التركي – الروسي الأخير حول إدلب، تتجه الأنظار نحو مناطق سيطرة القوات الكردية، ومن المتوقع أن تكون البداية من مدينة تل رفعت لاختبار مدى تجاوب الأكراد مع دمشق، وحتى اللحظة يبدو أن كفة سيطرة الجيش السوري على المدينة هي الراجحة، وذلك مع تواتر تقارير عن وصول تعزيزات للجيش السوري إلى بلدة دير جِما غرب تل رفعت، فيما تقوم فصائل المعارضة السورية التابعة لعملية ”غصن الزيتون“ بمدينة اعزاز برفع سواتر ترابية على طول الخط الفاصل بين المدينتين بغاية الحماية، فيما يبدو أنه تحضير لسيطرة قوات النظام السوري على تل رفعت.
من جهة ثانية، تعمل تركيا على استبدال عناصر جبهة النصرة بآخرين من الفصائل المعتدلة على طول حدود المنطقة الفاصلة بين سيطرة المعارضة وسيطرة النظام السوري في محافظة إدلب حتى عمق ١٥ إلى ٢٠ كم، وذلك بناء على الاتفاق المبرم مع روسيا، مما يعني هدنة طويلة الأمد في محافظة إدلب حتى تنتهي قضية شرق الفرات على الأغلب، أو يحدث أمر يُغيّر قواعد المعادلة من جديد.
يبدو أن حديث وزير الخارجية الروسي سيرغي لافروف هو الأكثر وضوحاً في هذا الشأن، فخلال مؤتمر صحفي مشترك عقده في ساراييفو مع وزير خارجية البوسنة والهرسك، قال لافروف “أما بخصوص الاتفاق الروسي التركي بشأن إدلب فهو يهدف بالدرجة الأولى إلى القضاء على تحدي الإرهاب، وهو خطوة مرحلية من دون أدنى شك، لأن الحديث يدور فقط عن إنشاء منطقة منزوعة السلاح، لكنها خطوة ضرورية لأن ذلك سيتيح منع القصف المتواصل من منطقة خفض التوتر في إدلب لمواقع القوات السورية وقاعدة حميميم” الروسية وأضاف بأن أكبر تهديد لسيادة سوريا ووحدتها “يأتي من شرق الفرات” وهي المناطق الخاضعة لسيطرة قوات سوريا الديمقراطية المدعومة من قبل التحالف الدولي الذي تقوده واشنطن، حيث تُقام تحت إشراف أميركا هياكل تتمتع بحكم ذاتي.
يبقى أن نذكر بأن مصير هذه المناطق مرتبط أيضاً بمدى تجاوب النظام السوري مع اللامركزية التي يطمح إلى تحقيقها الأكراد ومن معهم في الشمال السوري، ففي حين أن النظام السوري يرى ذلك محققاً من خلال المرسوم التشريعي رقم ١٠٧ للعام ٢٠١١ المتضمن قانون الإدارة المحلية الجديد، إلا أن المرسوم لم يُطبَّق في مناطق سيطرته حتى الآن.
وهكذا تنتقل عملية التوازن في الشمال السوري من كفة لأخرى، وتبقى الأمور معلّقة برغبة ومصالح اللاعبين الأساسيين، فيما يستمر كل منهم بترديد عبارة “الشعب السوري وحده من يقرر مصيره بنفسه.”
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | أكتوبر 3, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Third Anniversary of “Russian Syria”
30 September 2018
On Sunday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said that more than eighteen thousand people, half of which are civilians, were killed in Russian airstrikes in Syria since Moscow started its military intervention three years ago.
Russia, a strong ally for President Bashar al-Assad’s government, started launching airstrikes in Syria on 30 September 2015, four years after the onset of the destructive conflict in the country.
Since then, eighteen thousand and ninety-six people have been killed, including seven thousand nine hundred and eighty-eight civilians or about half of the death total, according to the SOHR.
Five thousand two hundred and thirty-three ISIS militants have also been killed in these airstrikes, while the remaining number belongs to other Islamist and Jihadist factions, according to the SOHR.
Human rights groups and western governments have criticized the Russian airstrikes, saying that the bombardment has been indiscriminate and targeted civilian infrastructure, including hospitals.
The White Helmets, the Syrian civil defense in opposition areas, said in a report on Sunday that they have carried out dozens of rescue operations in bombarded building since 2015. They mentioned Russian airstrikes on nineteen schools, twelve open markets, and twenty medical facilities in the last three years, in addition to twenty-one of their rescue centers.
A US Invitation for France to Syria
30 September 2018
US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis heads to Paris on Tuesday to discuss the issue of fighting terrorism and French presence in Syria with President Emmanuel Macron and Minister of Armed Forces Florence Parly.
During the one-day visit, the first after taking office in 2017, Mattis will thank “France and congratulate it on its fighting terrorism campaigns, which are going on pretty well in west Africa and the East,” said Pentagon Spokesman Erik Pahon on Sunday.
While the Syrian government is asking US, Turkish, and French forces to leave Syria “immediately”, Washington hopes that Paris will keep special forces in the north of the country controlled by Syrian Democratic Forces, allies with the anti-jihadist international coalition.
“We will stay in Syria as long as necessary” so that the jihadists cannot re-locate there, the spokesman said. “The coalition will stay in Syria and it is the coalition that will decide whether France, Germany or another country will stay there,” he said. “But France is one of the few member countries of the coalition to assist us in Syria. We hope that it will stay there.”
France is taking part in the battles against ISIS in Iraq and Syria along with the US-led international coalition, which includes fighter jets, artillery, and special forces advising Kurdish fighters.
No figures were given on these special forces, whose presence on the ground is rarely recognized by French authorities. But last April, Mattis revealed that “the French have reinforced us in Syria with special forces in the last two weeks.”
On Saturday, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem demanded the departure of the French, US, and Turkish troops from Syria, denouncing “the illegitimate international coalition led by the United States,” deployed in Syria “under the pretext of fighting terrorism.”
After Paris, Mattis will head for Brussels to participate in a ministerial meeting of NATO on Wednesday and Thursday.
James Jeffery, the US Special Representative for Syria Engagement, said that the United States would maintain a presence in Syria as long as Iran is present there, however, he said that the United States’ role would not necessarily involve boots on the ground.
Jeffery was clarifying a recent comment by a senior official who appeared to suggest that troops would stay indefinitely to counter Iran.
Such an objective would drastically alter the mission in Syria first authorized by President Barack Obama, who set a goal of defeating ISIS, which also considers Iran a foe.
“Boots on the ground have the current mission of the enduring defeat of ISIS,” Jeffery said.
“Changing Assad … Through the Constitution”
28 September 2018
The Small Group on Syria, which includes the United States, France, Britain, Germany, Saudi Arabi, Egypt, and Jordan, called on UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura to urgently set up the first meeting of the committee commissioned with drafting the constitution in order to hold elections in the country.
In a joint statement, the ministers stressed that “there is no military solution for the war,” saying that there is “no option other than the political solution.”
They warned that “those who seek a military solution will only succeed in increasing the risk of a dangerous escalation and wider conflagration of the crisis to the region and beyond.”
In an interview with Asharq al-Awsat, the new US envoy to Syria James Jeffery said that his country’s goal was not to remove Assad. “We will be happy if he leaves and declares his departure voluntarily. But this is not our goal. Our goal is a different Syria that does not threaten its people or neighbors, does not use chemical weapons, does not expel refugees and displace people from its territory, and does not provide Iran with a platform to launch rockets against Israel. Our goals include holding those who committed war crimes accountable. Assad’s fate is something that Syrians will decide. If Assad is able to lead Syria in this direction then this a matter that Syrians should consider,” he said.
“Nouri al-Maliki (former Iraqi Prime Minister) was removed from office through the constitution because he could not prevent ISIS from taking control of areas in Iraq. No country in the Middle East had removed a leader because he did not meet the expectations of his people… I was present when the Iraqi constitution was drafted, and I was skeptical; but the Iraqis believed in the constitution, and I do not know what prevents Syria from moving in this direction,” the US envoy added.
The Heavy Weaponry in Idlib
1 October 2018
There have been conflicting reports on Syrian opposition factions withdrawing their heavy arms from the “demilitarized zone” in northern Syria as per the agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi on 17 September.
“There have been no withdrawals of heavy weapons from any area or any front. This report is denied, completely denied,” said Naji Mustafa the spokesman for the National Front for Liberation (NLF), after the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported the day before on the first withdrawal of heavy weaponry by al-Sham Corps.
The Russian-Turkish agreement, which was reached in the Russian city of Sochi, provides for the establishment of a fifteen to twenty kilometer demilitarized zone between the frontlines of government forces and opposition factions on the outskirts of Idlib and parts of the adjacent governorates, specifically in the northern countryside of Hama, the western countryside of Aleppo, and the northern countryside of Lattakia.
The agreement, which spared the last opposition stronghold an all-out offensive by Damascus, stipulates that all factions in the buffer zone must hand in their heavy weapons by 10 October and radical groups must withdraw by 15 October, while Turkish forces and Russian military police would be deployed in the area.
Al-Izza Army, a Syrian opposition faction active in the northern countryside of Hama, announced its rejection of the agreement in a statement, the first public rejection by a non-radical organization. This comes after the National Front for Liberation, a coalition of opposition factions that includes Ahrar al-Sham, welcomed the agreement last week, affirming its distrust of the Russian side.
There has been no official public position from Tahrir al-Sham (previously Nusra), which controls more than half of Idlib and had previously said that it refuses to negotiate its weapons. However, it held intensive internal talks on Sunday to take a final decision regarding the agreement, according to the SOHR.
The Guardians of Religion organization expressed its refusal of “these conspiracies and all these steps,” in a statement circulated on social media last week.
Disputes Surrounding the Interpretation of Idlib
29 September 2018
Four points of dispute have emerged regarding the interpretation of the Sochi agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Idlib.
The agreement provided for a demilitarized zone in opposition areas, north of Syria and not between front lines between government and opposition forces. It also included a timetable to withdraw heavy arms by 10 October and “getting rid of fanatics” by 15 October. Sources said that Moscow has informed Tehran, Damascus, and Ankara that “in case the dates were not fully implemented, military operations and airstrikes against Idlib would be launched immediately.”
According to the sources, the first dispute revolves around the depth of the demilitarized zone, between fifteen and twenty kilometers. Moscow is seeking to include Idlib and other major cities in this zone, but Ankara refuses. The second dispute is related to the Aleppo-Lattakia road and Aleppo-Hama road. Russia wants to see Damascus control these two roads before the end of the year, while Ankara insists that they be monitored by Russia and Turkey.
The third dispute is over the fate of the fanatics, as Ankara wants to see them transferred to Kurdish areas while Moscow insists on “terminating foreign fighters”. The two sides also disagree on the range of the Sochi agreement. Sources said that “Moscow wants a temporary agreement similar to the ones implemented in the de-escalation areas of Daraa, Ghouta, and Homs, while Ankara wants to have it permanent, similar to the one implemented in the areas of the Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch operations.
Opening of Nassib Border Crossing is Postponed
29 September 2018
Reuters
Official Syrian media said on Saturday that Nassib border crossing with Jordan will be reopened on 10 October, three years after the trade route was closed by opposition fighters. A previous statement from the Ministry of Transportation had announced that the movement of trucks and goods through the crossing had already been restored. However, the Jordanian government denied that, saying that “the two sides are still studying the reopening of the border.”
Following the denial by Amman, Syrian state media ran a new statement by the transportation ministry saying that “logistic preparations to reopen the crossing are now complete, so that the Nassib border crossing with Jordan will reopen on the tenth of October and start receiving truck and transit traffic.” The crossing is considered a vital economic artery for Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon.
S-300 and the Iranian Presence!
27-29 September 2018
Reuters
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Friday that the delivery of the S-300 missile defense system to Syria had already begun, and warned Western powers of attempting to undermine UN-led efforts to end the seven-year conflict.
Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said on Monday the system would be delivered to Syria in two weeks despite strong Israeli and US objections. A week prior, Moscow accused Israel of indirectly causing the downing of a Russian military jet in Syria.
Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of Supreme National Security Council in Iran, said Israel will be sorry if it continues to attack the Syrian army and its allies. Shamkhani made the comments during a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Nikolai Patrushev, in Tehran.
On Tuesday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would continue its military operations in Syria, after Russia announced it would supply an advanced anti-aircraft system to its Syrian ally. “We will continue to act to prevent Iranian military entrenchment in Syria and we will continue the military coordination between the Israel Defense Forces and the Russian army,” said Netanyahu.
The White House said it hoped Russia would reconsider the move, which US National Security Adviser John Bolton called a “significant escalation” of Syria’s seven-year war. Bolton said a political process was needed to end Syria’s war but that Russia’s plans with the S-300 made that difficult. He said US troops would stay in Syria. “We are not going to leave as long as Iranian troops are outside Iranian borders, and that includes Iranian proxies and militias.”
Dispute Surrounding the Endowments
30 September 2018
Decree Number 16 of 20 September 2018 regarding the work of the ministry of endowments has stirred a lot of controversy because it was issued before its draft was distributed and discussed transparently. The most important thing is that it expands the powers of the ministry and the minister, including restricting the term of mufti to three years instead of for life, based on a proposal by the minister of endowments. There are other controversial issues as well such as the formation of a religious youth group.
