بواسطة Ibrahim Hamidi | مارس 29, 2018 | News, غير مصنف
المفاوضات المباشرة بين الجيش الروسي و«جيش الإسلام» محتدمة لمستقبل دوما في غوطة دمشق. كما أن المحادثات بين الجيشين الروس والتركي مكثفة لتقرير مستقبل تل رفعت في ريف حلب، ما ذكر بالمفاوضات غير المباشرة سابقاً لتقرير مستقبل القطاع الجنوبي من الغوطة بالتزامن مع تقدم قوات «غصن الزيتون» التركية من مركز عفرين، شمال حلب، الأمر الذي أوحى بأن عمليات توزيع قطع سوريا بين القوى الخارجية مستمرة.
وإذ تجري مفاوضات مستقبل دوما على وقع تعزيز الحكومة السورية قواتها حول المدينة مع أنباء عن نية روسيا قيادة هذه العملية، فإن الحديث بات يتناول «مرحلة ما بعد الغوطة» وما إذا كانت ستنتقل قوات الحكومة وروسيا أولاً للهجوم على «الجيب المعزول» في ريف حمص أولاً أم إلى «هدنة الجنوب» حيث تقوم ترتيبات روسية – أميركية – أردنية، مع وجود قناعة بأن مرحلة شرق نهر الفرات مؤجلة إلى مرحلة بعيدة، بسبب القرار السياسي الأميركي بـ«البقاء إلى أجل مفتوح».
وتحت وطأة خسارة القطاع الجنوبي وتهجير آلاف المقاتلين من «فيلق الرحمن» و«أحرار الشام» من شرق دمشق إلى الشمال، دخل «جيش الإسلام» مفاوضات مباشرة مع الجيش الروسي لتقرير مصير آخر جيب للمعارضة شرق العاصمة. وبحسب المعلومات، فإن هناك الكثير من التعقيدات في هذه المفاوضات حيث سعى ضباط مصريون للوصول إلى تسوية ما استكمالاً لدورهم في عقد اتفاق «خفض التصعيد» صيف العام الماضي.
«جيش الإسلام» يريد البقاء في دوما بسلاحه ومؤسساته المدنية مع وقف للنار مع دمشق، مقابل السماح بوجود رمزي لمؤسسات الدولة وصولاً إلى تحول مقاتلين معارضين إلى قوات شرطة والتخلص من السلاح الثقيل وإيجاد صيغة للتعاطي مع الخدمة الإلزامية للشباب في دوما بـ«حماية روسية» مع «إصدار عفو عام»، والسماح بحرية الحركة من وإلى المنطقة.
لكن الجانب الروسي، الذي كان يبدي بعض المرونة، بات ميالاً إلى التشدد والاقتراب من موقف دمشق وخيّر «جيش الإسلام» الذي يضم نحو ثمانية آلاف مقاتل بين «الهجوم العسكري أو اللحاق بركب المناطق الأخرى والموافقة على الإجلاء».
وبرزت عقدة أخرى هنا، هي الوجهة التي يمكن أن يذهب إليها بعض قيادات «جيش الإسلام»، ذلك أنهم يرفضون الذهاب إلى إدلب بسبب المعارك السابقة بين «جيش الإسلام» و«جبهة النصرة» التي تلعب دوراً أساسيّاً في «هيئة تحرير الشام» في إدلب. كما أن أنقرة وفصائل متحالفة معها رفضت استقبال قيادات من «جيش الإسلام» بسبب اعتراض تركي على عقد فصائل اتفاقات عقد التصعيد مع روسيا برعاية مصرية.
عقدة وجهة المقاتلين المهجرين من الغوطة برزت قبل يومين، إذ إن فصائل «درع الفرات» التي تسيطر بدعم تركي على مناطق بين الباب وجرابلس في ريف حلب، رفضت استقبال «فيلق الرحمن» الذي كان ينسق مع «النصرة» في وسط وجنوب الغوطة. ونقل عن قيادي معارض قوله: «يجري الحديث عن استقبال ألفي مقاتل وعائلاتهم في درع الفرات، لكن التخوف أن يدعو فيلق الرحمن موالين من إدلب إلى مناطق درعا الفرات لاحقاً».
كما تخوفت فصائل إسلامية و«معتدلة» من انتقال مقاتلين من «فيلق الرحمن» و«النصرة» إلى إدلب لاعتقاد هذه الفصائل أن وصول مقاتلين جدد سيرجح الكفة لصالة «هيئة تحرير الشام» في أي مواجهة مقبلة بين فصائل إسلامية في ريف إدلب. وخرج أكثر من 19 ألف شخص من البلدات الجنوبية للغوطة فقط، بعدما كان تم إجلاء أكثر من 4500 من حرستا. وهناك توقعات بأن يصل العدد إلى 30 ألفاً.
وأمام هذا الواقع بدا أن إحدى المناطق التي يمكن أن يذهب إليها قياديون أو مقاتلون من «جيش الإسلام» هي زاوية أرياف درعا – السويداء – القنيطرة التي تسود فيها اتفاقية «خفض التصعيد» بتفاهم أميركي – روسي – أردني.
ويتزامن هذا الخيار مع بدء إرسال قوات الحكومة بعض التعزيزات إلى الجنوب للتلويح بإمكان الذهاب إليه بعد الغوطة. لكن مسؤولين غربيين ودوليين قالوا: «دمشق تضغط على موسكو للذهاب إلى شن هجوم على جيب ريف حمص في الرستن وتلبسية»، وهي المنطقة التي كان جرى التوصل في القاهرة مع روسيا لاتفاق «خفض التصعيد». وأوضح دبلوماسي: «معركة حمص سهلة وتقع ضمن سوريا المفيدة لدمشق، على عكس جنوب البلاد».
وكانت أميركا وروسيا والأردن توصلوا إلى «هدنة الجنوب» نصت على التزام أميركا بأن تقاتل فصائل «الجيش الحر» التي تضم 35 ألف مقاتل «جبهة النصرة» و«جيش خالد» التابع لـ«داعش» مقابل التزام روسيا بإبعاد «قوات غير سورية» في إشارة إلى «حركة النجباء» و«حزب الله» عن الجنوب في مرحلتين: الأولى بين 5 و15 كيلومتراً والثانية وراء 20 كيلومتراً.
وبحسب مسؤول غربي: «كلما راجعت أميركا روسيا إزاء تنفيذ التزاماتها لإبعاد ميلشيات إيران تطالب موسكو واشنطن بقتال (النصرة)».
عليه، بقي الموضوع معلقاً مع التزام الأطراف وقف النار. وتم خرق الهدنة مرات عدة الأسبوع الماضي من قوات الحكومة. وجرت لقاءات أميركية – روسية في عمان لعودة الأطراف إلى التزام الهدنة. وهناك اعتقاد بأن دمشق تضغط لتحسين الموقف التفاوضي للوصول إلى ترتيبات جديدة، خصوصاً وسط رغبة الأردن بإعادة تشغيل معبر نصيب ورفع العلم الرسمي.
عليه، فإن المرجح هو أن تكون المعركة المقبلة في «جيب» حمص. واستعجل «جيش التوحيد» و«هيئة التفاوض» في حمص الاتصال بأنقرة للوصول إلى تسوية تبعد ريف حمص عن المعارك ونشر نقاط مراقبة تركية شمال حمص. لكن أنقرة لا تزال إلى الآن تعطي أولوية لقضم ريف حلب بعد عفرين.
وبحسب المعلومات، فإن المفاوضات جارية بين الجيشين الروسي والتركي للاتفاق على آلية تسليم تل رفعت إلى أنقرة والاتفاق على خرائط انتشار فصائل معارضة والجيش التركي هناك. وقال مصدر مطلع: «هناك اتفاق على تسليم تل رفعت إلى تركيا، وإن قوات النظام انسحبت من أطراف مطار منغ ومناطق في تل رفعت، وإن الخلاف هو حول مستقبل وحدات حماية الشعب الكردية». ونفى مصدر كردي حصول أي تقدم للجيش التركي في تل رفعت، قائلاً: «الأمر على حاله هي في أيدي النظام وليس الوحدات الكردية التي تركز على حرب كر وفر في عفرين».
وبعد سيطرتها على 2100 كيلومتر مربع في مناطق «درع الفرات» وألف كيلومتر في مناطق عفرين، ترتفع مناطق سيطرة تركيا بعد القبض على تل رفعت لتضاف إلى مناطق أخرى في ريفي إدلب وحماة، حيث نشر الجيش التركي 13 نقطة مراقبة. في المقابل، تسيطر قوات الحكومة على نصف مساحة سوريا مقابل سيطرة حلفاء واشنطن على ثلث سوريا شرق نهر الفرات.
تم نشر هذا المقال في «الشرق الأوسط»
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | مارس 28, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Afrin in Turkey’s Hand
18 March 2018
Turkish Forces and Syrian armed opposition factions allied to them were able to enter Afrin after launching the Olive Branch Operation, which lasted for eight weeks and led to the withdrawal of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the displacement of nearly two-thirds of the city’s population.
“The estimate now is one hundred and sixty-seven thousand people have been displaced by hostilities in Afrin district,” spokesman of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance Jens Laerke said in a Geneva briefing. According to Laerke, there are around fifty to seventy thousand civilians inside the city, where health conditions are extremely difficult. The World Health Organization said that there is just one operational hospital out of four located in the city.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimated the number of displaced people from Afrin to be around two hundred and fifty thousand people. It also reported the deaths of two hundred and eighty-nine civilians including forty-three children, in addition to one thousand and five hundred Kurdish fighters. At least four hundred and ninety-six fighters from Turkish forces and opposition factions were killed, including seventy-eight Turkish soldiers.
Reports and photos from the Kurdish city and other villages show a great number of public and private property being subject to systematic looting carried out by factions of the Free Syrian Army, which participated in the operation. The looting included vehicles, houses, agricultural machines, and commercial shops. Leaked videos revealed human rights violations, field executions of Kurdish civilians and prisoners of wars, and humiliation of citizens and insult to their beliefs, as in the destruction of the statue of Kawa the Blacksmith which symbolizes the oppression and injustice Kurds faced at the hands of a Persian king, according to a local legend, and is linked to the Nowruz festival, the Kurdish New Years’ Eve which is celebrated on the twenty-first of March.
Several opposition members condemned these acts by the factions. The Turkish army has deployed military police in Afrin.
The issue of civilians in Afrin has created a crisis between Ankara, on one hand, and Paris and Berlin, on the other, after sharp criticism by the French President Emmanuel Macron and the German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Salih Muslim, the former co-chairman of the Democratic Union Party, which is considered the main Syrian Kurdish political movement, said that Turkey would not have succeeded in its operation without Russian support. “We are disappointed by the Russians because they had some obligations when they came to Syria… they promised that they were going to protect the Syrian territory,” Muslim said in a press conference in Stockholm. “Russia did not do anything (about the Turkish incursion), they gave the green light to Turkey and everybody is sure that if Turkey did not have the green light from Russia then they would not have done it,” he added.
Mobile Massacres
20 March 2018
A rocket launched Tuesday by opposition factions on a crowded popular market in Kashkool neighborhood, between Dwailaa and Jarmana neighborhoods in the outskirts of Damascus, has led to the deaths of at least thirty-five people, most of whom were civilians. The toll is likely to increase with tens of casualties in critical conditions. Local residents in the neighborhood said that the rocket hit a street known for its cheap prices, which gave people a chance to go shopping ahead of Mother’s Day in Syria, which is celebrated on 21March.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), the number of civilian casualties from mortar shells has risen to one hundred and seventy-nine, including twenty-five children and twenty-four women. The SOHR also documented the injury of more than eight hundred and fifteen people as a result of daily targeting in more than four consecutive months.
The intense shelling carried out by Syrian government forces with Russian aerial support on eastern Ghouta has left at least twenty-nine civilians dead in Douma, raising the toll of casualties since the start of military operations in Ghouta to one thousand and five hundred and seventeen civilians including three hundred and eleven children. Military air jets, most likely to be Syrian, targeted a bunker beneath a school in the city of Arbin in eastern Ghouta, resulting in a massacre that killed fifteen children and two women, in addition to fifty-two wounded civilians. Evacuation of medical cases along with members of their families continued in the city of Douma under an agreement between Jaish al-Islam (Islam Army) and Russia. “One thousand and eight hundred people, including three hundred and seventy-five sick people were evacuated in one week,” according to a medical source of the AFP. On 21 March, sixteen children were killed in an air raid carried out by planes, which could not be identified as Syrian or Russian, near a village school in Idlib governorate, according to the SOHR. “The aerial bombardment of the village of Kafr Battiekh in the eastern countryside of Idlib happened near a school while students were leaving for homes,” the SOHR added, noting that the children who died were less than eleven years old.
The bombardment left four other civilians dead according to the SOHR, adding that among those killed, there were fifteen people from the same family.
The “Victory” in Ghouta?
20 March 2018
With the start of the attack by Syrian government forces on eastern Ghouta on 18 February, a rivalry between Damascus and Moscow emerged over claiming the expected “victory” in Ghouta.
Pro-Syrian sources leaked a list of five hundred and forty-five military personnel of government forces, including thirty-five Russian servicemen, who were killed in the fighting. The Facebook page of the Russian base in Hmeimim said that “Russian forces provided aerial and ground support during the battles that led to achieving victory in a short period of time, and servicemen have sacrificed their lives.”
According to this same page, President Bashar al-Assad spoke during his visit to Ghouta to members of the Republican Guard and did not meet with forces of Brigadier Suhail al-Hasan, a.k.a. the Tiger, who enjoys special Russian support. Hmeimim base said “In this war, there are names that will be written down in history. Russian President Vladimir Putin has emphasized this during his meeting with al-Hasan.” It also added that Putin demanded that Russian units provide “special protection” for the “Tiger”. Reports say that Putin is preparing a “pleasant surprise” for the “Tiger”.
Al-Assad has been on a tour in Ghouta of Damascus. Opposition members pointed to the photos of destruction and the absence of civilians in the towns and cities of Ghouta.
Tal Rafaat Before Manbij
21 March 2018
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Wednesday that Turkey and the United States have come to an understanding and not a full agreement on achieving stabilization in the city of Manbij and other areas in northern Syria under Kurdish control. Turkey repeatedly threatened to extend its operations further east to Manbij, where US forces are stationed. The expansion of the Turkish army’s operations to wider areas in the east under Kurdish control threatens a confrontation between the two NATO members. Cavusoglu denied that Ankara and Washington reached an agreement on the fate of Manbij, which is located one hundred kilometers east of Afin. “We said we have reached an understanding, which is mainly that Syria’s Manbij and the east of the Euphrates are stabilized. We said we have reached an understanding, not an agreement,” he added.
He went on to say that Ankara has been seeking an agreement with Washington on who will provide security in Manbij after the withdrawal of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, which Turkey considers a “terrorist organization,” stressing that the withdrawal from Manbij will not be enough. “First, the People’s Protection Units will leave, and the people of Manbij will govern the city. The security of the area will be ensured. We will apply the Manbij model to other areas controlled by the People’s Protection Units as well,” he said. This has resulted in a crisis between the two countries. Outgoing US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson took a leading role in recent weeks to resolve the dispute, promising to find a solution for Manbij during a visit to Turkey last month. Cavusoglu’s talk came after a meeting between senior officials from the two countries on 21 March to follow up on the issue of Manbij. Turkey said that US President Donald Trump’s decision to sack Tillerson may delay the potential agreement between the two countries.
The next day, a US military and political delegation, which included Maj. Gen. Jamie Jarrard and US Ambassador William Roebuck, visited Manbij to reassure both Kurdish and Arab allies, in a step that challenges the position of Turkey, which signaled a military operation in Manbij if Kurdish fighters did not withdraw.
Turkey later announced that it would not enter Manbij until the United States fulfills its commitments, however, Ankara has focused its efforts on controlling Tal Rafaat according to an understanding with Russia.
Settling, Displacement, and Cheering for Al-Assad
24 March 2018
Ahrar al-Sham fighters and their families have left Harasta in Ghouta and headed for Idlib, after that, al-Rahman Corps fighters left Jobar, Ain Tarma, Arbin, and Zamalka, in conjunction with negotiations between Jaish al-Islam (Islam Army) and the Russian army to establish a “special status” for the city of Douma.
An agreement between the Representative of Russian Defense Minister Alexander Zwein and al-Rahman Corps provided for the deployment of the Russian army in areas the opposition leaves, and treatment of the injured in Russian hospitals in Syria, emphasizing Russia’s role in the agreement at the expense of Iran and the Syrian government.
A mass exodus from the city of Douma continued in the last few days through al-Wafideen crossing in northern Ghouta, which is one of three crossings set by government forces for those wishing to exit areas controlled by the opposition.
The bombardment and fighting have forced more than eighty-seven thousand civilians to flee the city since 15 March and head towards government controlled areas. More than thirty thousand stayed in their homes in towns south of Ghouta, which were taken over by the government army, according to the SOHR. During more than one month of fighting, around one thousand and six hundred and thirty civilians were killed, including around three hundred and thirty children. On Thursday, the first installment of one thousand and five hundred and eighty people, including four hundred and thirteen fighters, left Harasta and reached Idlib governorate after a very long trip. Opposition fighters agreed to hand the city to the government in exchange for providing safe passage and pardons for civilians who decided to remain there.
In a related context, social network activists circulated a video published by Enab Baladi website in which Mohammed Qabannadh, a member of the Syrian Parliament and a television producer, demanded that displaced people from eastern Ghouta cheer for President Bashar al-Assad in order to get water. The parliamentarian repeated his demands for the displaced to “glorify al-Assad and his wise leadership and to cheer for his life,” in addition to insulting Saudi Arabia and the United States, who are presumed to be supporters of the opposition. This was condemned by many Syrians.
During years of conflict, several Syrian areas, including cities and towns near Damascus, witnessed the evacuation of thousands of opposition fighters and civilians under agreements with government forces, following sieges and violent attacks, the most prominent of which were in Aleppo at the end of 2016.
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | مارس 20, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Prelude to Fierce Battles on the Seventh Anniversary
This week coincided with the seventh anniversary of the start of the Syrian movement for freedom, dignity, and justice, which turned into a fierce war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions of others, ripped society, and destroyed the economy, rendering the country a space to settle scores among regional and international powers, with no prospect for any political solutions.
The fiercest battles are taking place on two main fronts: eastern Ghouta, where government forces are attacking the besieged enclave, and Afrin, where Turkish forces backed by armed opposition factions are carrying out the attack.
Syria could face “fierce battles” in Idlib and Daraa after the offensive on eastern Ghouta, according to UN adviser Jan Egeland. The Turkish government also threatened to expand the attack on Afrin to include the city Manbej, east of the Euphrates, and northern Iraq.
This week also witnessed a new international escalation relevant to this issue, as the United States declared on Monday in the Security Council its readiness to intervene militarily in response to a presumed chemical attack in Ghouta. “There has been no cessation of hostilities,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in the meeting. “Violence continues in Ghouta and beyond – including in Afrin, parts of Idlib, and into Damascus and its suburbs.” (Reuters)
In an unprecedented escalation, Russia threatened that in the event of a threat to the lives of its servicemen, it will take retaliatory measures against missiles and launchers used. (Reuters)
This escalation comes as political tension between Russia and the West worsens, most recently with the diplomatic crisis over the attempted assassination of the Russian spy Sergey Scrippal in the UK, which led to the expulsion of twenty-three Russian diplomats from the UK on Wednesday, to which Russia retaliated in a tit-for-tat response on Saturday. (Reuters)
On the level of regional powers that are directly involved in Syria, the Saudi-Iranian escalation is heading towards new levels after the Saudi crown prince Muhammad bin Salman threatened to develop a nuclear bomb in case Iran takes that step. (Reuters)
Ghouta: Time for Displacement
13-18 March 2018
Government forces were able to take control of two-thirds of the besieged Ghouta this week and managed to split the remaining area into three isolated sectors: Duma which is controlled by Jaish al-Islam (Islam Army), Harasta which is controlled by Ahrar al-Sham, and Arbin and Ain Tarma which are controlled by Failaq al-Rahman (al-Rahman Corps).
After government forces reached Hamorieh, thousands of civilians moved from inside the besieged Ghouta to areas controlled by the government. The intensity of battles and artillery and aerial bombardment have not subsided. Government forces continue to advance taking control of the towns of al-Rihan, Jisreen, Saqba, Kafr Batna on Friday and Saturday (AFP), with battles entering a decisive stage.
The offensive led to the deaths of more than one thousand and four hundred civilians and thousands of casualties inside Ghouta, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Shells launched by opposition factions continued to fall on Damascus killing two hundred and forty-two civilians and injuring hundreds of others.
Afrin: Siege and Diaspora
13-18 March 2018
Turkish forces and opposition factions allied to them continued their military operation in Afrin, surrounding the city and cutting off water supplies amid fierce aerial and artillery bombardment, effectively controlling eighty-seven percent of the area of Afrin.
More than one hundred and fifty thousand residents in Afrin moved towards areas controlled by government forces in Aleppo, amid tragic humanitarian conditions. (Reuters) The Turkish army called on Kurdish fighters to surrender.
The Olive Branch operation has left two hundred and eighty-nine civilians dead, including forty-three children, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Four hundred and eighty-one soldiers from the Turkish forces and allied opposition factions were killed, while four hundred and sixty-nine soldiers from the People’s Protection Units (YPG) were killed, in addition to ninety-one soldiers from the government popular forces that entered the city. (SOHR)
The Turkish president said on Friday that the United States has to withdraw militants from east of the Euphrates if it wants to cooperate with Ankara (Reuters), which indicates that the Turkish operation may expand beyond Afrin to other areas in northern Syria.
Rape: A Weapon of War
15 March 2018
A report by UN investigators revealed on Thursday that Syrian government forces and forces allied to them used rape and sexual violence against women, girls, and men in a campaign to punish opposition areas. These actions constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity. The report also revealed opposition groups committed sexual violence and torture crimes as well, although they were “considerably less prevalent”.
“It is utterly repugnant that brutal acts of sexual and gender-based violence continued to be perpetrated throughout Syria for seven years by most warring parties,” said Paulo Pinheiro, chairman of the UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria. The report is based on four hundred and fifty-four interviews with survivors, relatives of survivors, eyewitnesses, defectors, lawyers, and medical personnel. (Reuters)
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | مارس 19, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week, غير مصنف
مقدمات لحروب طاحنة في الذكرى السابعة
صادف هذا الأسبوع الذكرى السابعة لانطلاق الحراك السوري في سبيل الحرية والكرامة والعدالة، الذي تحول إلى حروب طاحنة قتلت مئات الآلاف وشردت الملايين ومزقت المجتمع ودمرت الاقتصاد وغدت البلاد فضاء لتصفية الحسابات بين القوى الدولية والإقليمية في ظل غياب لآفاق الحلول السياسية.
وتستعر المعارك في جبهتين رئيسيتين: الغوطة الشرقية حيث تقوم قوات النظام بالهجوم على الجيب المحاصر، وعفرين حيث تقوم القوات التركية المدعومة من فصائل معارضة مسلحة الهجوم.
لكن يان إيغلاند مستشار الأمم المتحدة قال إن سوريا قد تشهد “معارك طاحنة” في إدلب ودرعا بعد انتهاء الهجوم على الغوطة الشرقية. كما أن الحكومة التركية تستمر في التهديد بتوسيع الهجوم على عفرين ليشمل منبج وشرق الفرات وشمال العراق.
وشهد هذا لأسبوع تصعيداً دولياً جديداً مرتبطاً حيث أبدت الولايات المتحدة الاثنين الماضي، استعداداً للتدخل العسكري رداً على هجوم كيماوي مفترض في الغوطة، في جلسة لمجلس الأمن. وقال الأمين العام للأمم المتحدة أنطونيو غوتيريش في الاجتماع: “لم تتوقف الأعمال القتالية … العنف مستمر في الغوطة الشرقية ومناطق أخرى- منها عفرين، وأجزاء من إدلب وفي دمشق وضواحيها”(رويترز).
وفي تصعيد غير مسبوق، هددت روسيا بأنها سترد على أي هجمات تستهدف قواتها أو مستشاريها باستهداف الصواريخ ومنصاتها. (رويترز)
ويترافق هذا التصعيد مع تفاقم حدة التوتر السياسي بين روسيا والغرب وآخرها الأزمة الدبلوماسية على خلفية محاولة اغتيال العميل الروسي سيرجي سكريبال في بريطانيا، والتي تطور إلى تطرد 23 دبلوماسياً روسياً من بريطانيا يوم الأربعاء والذي ردت عليه روسيا بالمثل السبت. (رويترز)
أما على المستوى القوى الإقليمية المتدخلة مباشرة في سوريا يتجه التصعيد السعودي الإيراني إلى مستويات جديدة بعد تهديد ولي العهد السعودي الأمير محمد بن سلمان بتطوير قنبلة نووية إذا أقدمت إيران على تلك الخطوة. (رويترز)
الغوطة… زمن النزوح
١٨-١٣ آذار/ مارس
شهد هذا الأسبوع سيطرة قوات النظام على ثلثي الغوطة الشرقية المحاصرة، وتمكنت من تقسيم المنطقة المتبقية إلى ثلاث مناطق منعزلة، دوما الذي يسيطر عليها “جيش الإسلام” وحرستا التي تسيطر عليها “أحرار الشام” وعربين وعين ترما التي يسيطر عليها “فيلق الرحمن”.
وبعد وصول قوات النظام إلى حمورية نزح آلاف المدنيين من داخل الغوطة المحاصرة إلى مناطق سيطرة النظام. ولم تتراجع حدة المعارك والقصف العنيف الجوي والمدفعي مع استمرار تقدم قوات النظام التي سيطرت على بلدات الريحان وجسرين وسقبا وكفربطنا يومي الجمعة والسبت (فرانس برس)، حيث دخلت المعركة مرحلة حاسمة.
وأدى الهجوم بحسب المرصد السوري لحقوق الإنسان لمقتل أكثر من 1400 مدني ضمن الغوطة وآلاف الجرحى. كما استمر إطلاق القذائف على دمشق من قبل فصائل المعارضة الذي أدى إلى مقتل 242 مدنياً وجرح المئات.
عفرين… حصار وشتات
١٨-١٣ آذار/ مارس
واصلت القوات التركية والفصائل المعارضة المتحالفة معها عمليتها العسكرية في عفرين وحاصرت مركز المدينة وقطعت عنها المياه وسط قصف جوي ومدفعي عنيف حيث سيطرت على 87 بالمئة من منطقة عفرين.
ونزح أكثر من 150 ألف من أهالي عفرين باتجاه المناطق التي يسيطر عليها قوات النظام في حلب في ظروف إنسانية مأساوية. (رويترز)
ودعا الجيش التركي المقاتلين الأكراد في عفرين للاستسلام.
وتسببت عملية غصن الزيتون في مقتل 289 مدنياً بينهم 43 طفلاً بحسب المرصد السوري لحقوق الإنسان. وقتل في العملية 481 مقاتلاً من القوات التركية والفصائل المعارضة المسلحة المتحالفة معها بينما قتل من قوات حماية الشعب 469 مقاتلاً بالإضافة إلى 91 من عناصر قوات النظام الشعبية التي دخلت المدينة. (المرصد)
وصرح الرئيس التركي الجمعة أن على أمريكا سحب المسلحين من شرق الفرات إذا أرادت التعاون مع أنقرة (رويترز) ما يشير إلى احتمال توسع العملية التركية بعد عفرين إلى مناطق أخرى في الشمال السوري.
الاغتصاب… سلاح حرب
١٥ آذار/مارس
كشف تقرير لمحققين تابعين للأمم المتحدة الخميس أن قوات الحكومة السورية والقوات المتحالفة معها استخدمت الاغتصاب والاعتداء الجنسي على النساء والفتيات والرجال في حملة لمعاقبة مناطق المعارضة وهي أفعال تشكل جرائم حرب وجرائم ضد الإنسانية. كما كشف التقرير أن جماعات المعارضة ارتكبت أيضاً جرائم عنف جنسي وتعذيب رغم أنها “أقل شيوعا بشكل كبير.”
وقال باولو بينيرو رئيس لجنة التحقيق التابعة للأمم المتحدة بشأن سوريا “إنه أمر شنيع للغاية أن تستمر الأعمال الوحشية من الاعتداءات الجنسية والعنف على أساس النوع من معظم أطراف الحرب على مدى سبع سنوات.” ويستند التقرير إلى 454 مقابلة مع ناجين وأقاربهم وشهود ومنشقين ومحامين وعاملين بالقطاع الطبي. (رويترز)
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | مارس 13, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Ghouta, Death, and a “New Aleppo”
9-10 March 2018
The UN Security Council Resolution 2401, which calls for a thirty-day truce, has not eased the battle for Ghouta in Damascus, but rather, aerial and artillery bombardment have intensified as the ground offensive of government forces expands, capturing about fifty percent of the area of the besieged Ghouta.
Government forces, with Russian support, were able to split the enclave into two halves after they captured the town of Misraba near the center of Ghouta, effectively surrounding the towns of Douma and Harasta on Saturday. (Reuters)
The “Scorched Earth” policy led to the death of nine hundred and fifty-seven civilians, including one hundred and ninety-nine children and one hundred and thirty-one women, from 18 March up to last Saturday, with rescuers unable to pull bodies out of the rubble. It also led to four thousand and three hundred and twenty civilian casualties, with an acute shortage of food and health care, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
Doctors Without Borders reported the bombardment of fifteen medical facilities out of twenty hospitals and clinics that it provides support for in eastern Ghouta. (AFP) The World Health Organization also said on Friday that some sixty-seven attacks on health facilities and workers in Syria have been verified in the first two months of 2018, equal to half of all those throughout last year, denouncing these attacks as “unacceptable.” (Reuters)
Mortars continued to be fired on Damascus by al-Rahman Corps and Jaish al-Islam, leading to the death and injury of civilians.
Military operations in eastern Ghouta are targeting “terrorist organizations in accordance with international humanitarian laws,” said the Syrian UN Ambassador in Geneva for the UN Human Rights Council on Thursday. In contrast, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said in a speech on Wednesday that targeting several hundred opposition fighters cannot be a justification for the offensive launched by the Syrian government in eastern Ghouta, which is controlled by the opposition. (Reuters)
Russia called for a safe passage of civilians out of Ghouta. In this context, two passageways were opened up for civilians, amid mutual accusations of targeting these passageways. (Reuters)
On Friday, thirteen fighters from Tahrir al-Sham, along with their families, went out from areas controlled by Jaish al-Islam. This strikes resemblance to the “scenario” in Aleppo, as military pressure continues to force opposition fighters to surrender or be deported to Idlib. Calls for calm will not resonate in the tragic situation of civilians in Ghouta.
The response from international pressure was restricted to allowing the entrance of a humanitarian aid convoy to Douma on Friday, after repeated delays and the exclusion of medical supplies.
Olive Branch Besieging Afrin
6-9 March 2018
Turkish forces and opposition factions have captured several important towns in Afrin, the last of which was the town of Jandires. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Afrin is now surrounded, and entry is imminent. (Reuters)
The Olive Branch operation, which started on 20 January, has led to the death of two hundred and four civilians, including thirty-two children and twenty-six women, up to Friday, as a result of Turkish aerial and artillery bombardment. According to the SOHR, the humanitarian and living conditions have drastically deteriorated.
Four hundred and nine soldiers from Turkish forces and Syrian factions have been killed, whereas three hundred and fifty-nine from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and Self-Defense Forces were killed, according to the SOHR.
A number of Arab factions allied with Syrian Democratic Forces decided to join the YPG in Afrin to confront the Turkish aggression.
No real international pressure on Turkey has emerged to stop the Olive Branch operation, as statements were confined to calls to end the offensive. On Tuesday, the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said, “International focus on Syria was on implementing a UN-backed ceasefire in the rebel-held area of eastern Ghouta, but the situation in Kurdish-held Afrin could also not be ignored.” (Reuters)
A War of Cancellation and a Truce
9 March 2018
Tahrir al-Sham (previously Nusra) and the Syrian Liberation Front, which includes Ahrar al-Sham and Nour Eddin al-Zinki factions, announced that they have reached a ceasefire in preparation for a solution to the problems between the two sides, after bloody fighting in rural Aleppo and Idlib.
Clashes between the two sides have intensified for the last few weeks in areas they control in Aleppo and Idlib, leading to the deaths of civilians and fighters from both sides.
The latest round of clashes occurred in the western countryside of Aleppo, where the two sides used heavy weaponry in most battles. Several towns witnessed demonstrations denouncing the fighting and practices of both factions towards civilians. (Al-Jazeera)
This renewed fighting demonstrates the fragmentation and distrust among factions, in addition to Turkey’s desire for its allied forces to control areas controlled by the opposition as part of the understandings to reduce escalation.
Return of the Refugees
6-7-9 March 2018
Several members of the right-wing Alternative for Germany Party made a visit to Damascus on Tuesday seeking the return of refugees to Syria through an understanding with the government, which was condemned by the German government. This reflects the magnitude of contradiction over the Syrian refugee crisis in Europe. (Reuters)
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees said on Friday that it was “too early” to talk about the return of refugees to Syria, because the situation remained unsafe and risky.
A spokesperson for the Turkish Foreign Ministry said Turkey will build camps to accommodate one hundred and seventy thousand Syrian refugees near Idlib.
Russian Transport Plane Crash
6 March 2018
“According to the latest updates, the Antonov An-26 transport aircraft, which crashed in Hmeimim airbase, was carrying thirty-three passengers and six crew members. All of them were members of the Russian Armed Forces,” the Interfax news agency quoted the Defense Ministry as saying. The crew and the passengers were all killed.
A Russian transport aircraft carrying a Russian military orchestra crashed in the Black Sea in December 2016 on a trip for Syria, killing all ninety-two people on board. (Euronews)
