Syria in a Week (19 March 2018)

Syria in a Week (19 March 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.


Prelude to Fierce Battles on the Seventh Anniversary

This week coincided with the seventh anniversary of the start of the Syrian movement for freedom, dignity, and justice, which turned into a fierce war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions of others, ripped society, and destroyed the economy, rendering the country a space to settle scores among regional and international powers, with no prospect for any political solutions.

The fiercest battles are taking place on two main fronts: eastern Ghouta, where government forces are attacking the besieged enclave, and Afrin, where Turkish forces backed by armed opposition factions are carrying out the attack.

Syria could face “fierce battles” in Idlib and Daraa after the offensive on eastern Ghouta, according to UN adviser Jan Egeland. The Turkish government also threatened to expand the attack on Afrin to include the city Manbej, east of the Euphrates, and northern Iraq.

This week also witnessed a new international escalation relevant to this issue, as the United States declared on Monday in the Security Council its readiness to intervene militarily in response to a presumed chemical attack in Ghouta. “There has been no cessation of hostilities,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in the meeting. “Violence continues in Ghouta and beyond – including in Afrin, parts of Idlib, and into Damascus and its suburbs.” (Reuters)

In an unprecedented escalation, Russia threatened that in the event of a threat to the lives of its servicemen, it will take retaliatory measures against missiles and launchers used. (Reuters)

This escalation comes as political tension between Russia and the West worsens, most recently with the diplomatic crisis over the attempted assassination of the Russian spy Sergey Scrippal in the UK, which led to the expulsion of twenty-three Russian diplomats from the UK on Wednesday, to which Russia retaliated in a tit-for-tat response on Saturday. (Reuters)

On the level of regional powers that are directly involved in Syria, the Saudi-Iranian escalation is heading towards new levels after the Saudi crown prince Muhammad bin Salman threatened to develop a nuclear bomb in case Iran takes that step. (Reuters)

 

Ghouta: Time for Displacement

13-18 March 2018

Government forces were able to take control of two-thirds of the besieged Ghouta this week and managed to split the remaining area into three isolated sectors: Duma which is controlled by Jaish al-Islam (Islam Army), Harasta which is controlled by Ahrar al-Sham, and Arbin and Ain Tarma which are controlled by Failaq al-Rahman (al-Rahman Corps).

After government forces reached Hamorieh, thousands of civilians moved from inside the besieged Ghouta to areas controlled by the government. The intensity of battles and artillery and aerial bombardment have not subsided. Government forces continue to advance taking control of the towns of al-Rihan, Jisreen, Saqba, Kafr Batna on Friday and Saturday (AFP), with battles entering a decisive stage.

The offensive led to the deaths of more than one thousand and four hundred civilians and thousands of casualties inside Ghouta, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Shells launched by opposition factions continued to fall on Damascus killing two hundred and forty-two civilians and injuring hundreds of others.

 

Afrin: Siege and Diaspora

13-18 March 2018

Turkish forces and opposition factions allied to them continued their military operation in Afrin, surrounding the city and cutting off water supplies amid fierce aerial and artillery bombardment, effectively controlling eighty-seven percent of the area of Afrin.

More than one hundred and fifty thousand residents in Afrin moved towards areas controlled by government forces in Aleppo, amid tragic humanitarian conditions. (Reuters) The Turkish army called on Kurdish fighters to surrender.

The Olive Branch operation has left two hundred and eighty-nine civilians dead, including forty-three children, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Four hundred and eighty-one soldiers from the Turkish forces and allied opposition factions were killed, while four hundred and sixty-nine soldiers from the People’s Protection Units (YPG) were killed, in addition to ninety-one soldiers from the government popular forces that entered the city. (SOHR)

The Turkish president said on Friday that the United States has to withdraw militants from east of the Euphrates if it wants to cooperate with Ankara (Reuters), which indicates that the Turkish operation may expand beyond Afrin to other areas in northern Syria.

 

Rape: A Weapon of War

15 March 2018

A report by UN investigators revealed on Thursday that Syrian government forces and forces allied to them used rape and sexual violence against women, girls, and men in a campaign to punish opposition areas. These actions constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity. The report also revealed opposition groups committed sexual violence and torture crimes as well, although they were “considerably less prevalent”.

“It is utterly repugnant that brutal acts of sexual and gender-based violence continued to be perpetrated throughout Syria for seven years by most warring parties,” said Paulo Pinheiro, chairman of the UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria. The report is based on four hundred and fifty-four interviews with survivors, relatives of survivors, eyewitnesses, defectors, lawyers, and medical personnel. (Reuters)

Syria Media Roundup (February 16-28)

Syria Media Roundup (February 16-28)

[This is a roundup of news articles and other materials circulating on Syria and reflects a wide variety of opinions. It does not reflect the views of the Media Roundup Editors or of Salon Syria. You may send your own recommendations for inclusion in each week’s roundup to info@SalonSyria.com by Monday night of every week.]

 

Inside Syria

Syrian Observatory: bombing kills 71 in east Ghouta in past day (19 February 2018) A surge in attacks by the Syrian government and its allies has killed 71 people in the rebel-held eastern Ghouta pocket near Damascus in 24 hours

Dozens of civilians killed in Eastern Ghouta strikes (19 February 2018) Bombardments by Syrian government forces have killed dozens of civilians in the rebel-held Eastern Ghouta area outside Damascus, activists say.

More bombs hit Syria’s Ghouta, death toll highest since 2013 (20 February 2018) Pro-government forces pounded the rebel-held district of eastern Ghouta outside the Syrian capital Damascus on Tuesday, in a surge of violence that a war monitor said had killed at least 250 people since Sunday night.

There are no longer any words to describe Syria’s horror (21 February 2018) The desperate situation, and the near-total absence of any sign that further violence can be avoided, prompted UNICEF, the UN’s Children’s Fund, to issue a blank statement headed simply, “The war on children in Syria: Reports of mass casualties among children in Eastern Ghouta and Damascus.”

Syrian Militias Enter Afrin, Dealing a Setback to Turkey (22 February 2018) Militias loyal to the Syrian government swept into the northwestern enclave of Afrin on Thursday in support of Kurdish militias, reclaiming the territory and stealing a march on Turkish forces that have been battling toward the city for nearly a month.

Why leaving Ghouta is not an option (22 February 2018) The majority of rebel groups in Eastern Ghouta think their only option, despite the odds, is to survive long enough until things change

What’s Behind Egypt’s Rush to Rebuild Syria? (22 February 2018) Both the Assad regime and its foes in the region could be banking on Cairo to facilitate the right conditions for a profitable reconstruction, Enab Baladi writes.

Turkish forces shell convoy headed to Syria’s Afrin region (23 February 2018) The Turkish army struck a convoy entering Syria’s Kurdish-held Afrin region, which Ankara said carried fighters and weapons but Kurdish forces said was made up of civilians entering with food and medicine.

Refugee family renews century-old ties on Crete (23 February 2018) After fleeing the conflict in Syria with his family, Ahmed has rediscovered his roots on the Greek island of Crete.

The Arabic version of this article can be found here: عائلة سورية تعود إلى “أرض الأجداد” في جزيرة كريت اليونانية

Understanding Eastern Ghouta in Syria (23 February 2018) The UN says nearly 400,000 civilians are trapped in the Eastern Ghouta suburbs of Damascus, the latest battleground in a series of bloody rebel defeats in Syria’s cities. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and his Russian allies seem poised for a major ground offensive on the besieged insurgent enclave. What do we know?

Get underground or die in the streets – the choice in Eastern Ghouta (23 February 2018) Syrian civilians are forced into makeshift underground shelters under the streets of Douma – above them is only death.

Air strikes in Eastern Ghouta ‘kill 500’ (24 February 2018) Syrian government forces have killed more than 500 civilians during a week of intense bombardment of a rebel enclave near Damascus, activists say.

New UN truce plea as deaths in Eastern Ghouta mount (26 February 2018) The UN has renewed its appeal for an immediate truce in the besieged Syrian rebel-held Eastern Ghouta area, amid reports of more deaths in air strikes.

Dozens killed in East Ghouta after Security Council demands ceasefire: ‘Planes never left the skies’ (26 February 2018) Pro-government airstrikes and shelling killed at least 33 civilians in East Ghouta on Monday, the Civil Defense told Syria Direct, two days after the United Nations Security Council demanded a halt to hostilities in the besieged rebel enclave.

Russian truce plan fails to halt bombing of Syria’s Ghouta (27 February 2018) A Russian call for a five-hour truce on Tuesday failed to halt one of the most devastating campaigns of the Syrian war, where residents said government warplanes resumed striking the eastern Ghouta region on Tuesday after a brief lull.

 

Regional and International Perspectives

Is Russia Seeking a Peaceful Path? (16 February 2018) Frederic C. Hof  writes: “Between Moscow and Washington there is agreement on the desirability of a Syria reflecting territorial integrity, stability, empowered local governance, legitimate national governance, an active civil society, and a country rebuilding its physical infrastructure and its sense of shared citizenship.”

To Push Iran Back, Israel Ramps Up Support for Syrian Rebels, ‘Arming 7 Different Groups’ (20 February 2018) With the Assad regime’s advances the civil war and America’s reduced involvement in the region, Israel has been forced to make significant changes in its policies in the Golan Heights.

U.N. issues blank statement on Syria, says it has run out of words (20 February 2018) The U.N. children’s fund UNICEF issued a blank “statement” on Tuesday to express its outrage at mass casualties among Syrian children in the besieged enclave of Eastern Ghouta and neighboring Damascus.

From Astana to Sochi: How de-escalation allowed Assad to return to war (20 February 2018) What is foreseen for Syria under a Russian-led process – now that Geneva has been sidelined – is a tarting-up and reselling of the old order.

‘Complete madness’: Reported rebel shelling leaves more than a dozen dead in government-held Damascus city (21 February 2018) Mortar shells reportedly launched by rebels in East Ghouta killed more than a dozen civilians in government-held Damascus over the past 48 hours, in what humanitarian officials called some of the most intense shelling on the Syrian capital in months.

The West won’t stop the horrors in Syria even if it could. We simply don’t care (24 February 2018) Hot on the heels of the UN’s well-meaning intransigence comes the US State Department, who only a few weeks ago articulated a multi-point strategy for Syria so wide and all-encompassing that it essentially committed the US to a more or less permanent presence in the country — as well as Assad’s departure.

Qatar’s Emir: Attacks on Eastern Ghouta ‘crime against humanity’ (25 February 2018) Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani calls on international community to assume protection of civilians in Syria.

Why Erdogan may accept the Syrian army taking control of Afrin (26 February 2018) Turkey has no interest in fighting the Syrian military as long as the YPG is ousted from its south-eastern border.

Putin orders Eastern Ghouta ‘humanitarian pause’ (26 February 2018) Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has ordered a daily humanitarian pause in fighting in the Eastern Ghouta enclave in Syria.

Turkey sends ‘Kurdish Falcon’ force to Afrin to counter anti-Kurd image (26 February 2018) Force of 400 ethnic Kurds to enter Syrian enclave, days after Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkish troops would besiege Afrin city

‘Mass psychosis’ in Eastern Ghouta? (26 February 2018) Russia’s attempts to whitewash the gravity of the situation in Eastern Ghouta are emblematic of ‘post-truth’ logic.

 

Policy and Reports

The United States Used Depleted Uranium in Syria (14 February 2018) The airstrikes on oil trucks in Islamic State-controlled areas employed the toxic material, which has been accused of causing cancer and birth defects.

Weak U.S. Response to Russian Proxies Undermines Deterrence in Middle East and Eastern Europe (16 February 2018) The Russian Wagner private military company and Lebanese Hezbollah attacked U.S. and partner forces in Eastern Syria on February 7, 2018. Wagner is part of the business empire belonging to Putin ally Evgeni Prigozhin, whom Special Counsel Robert Mueller indicted on February 16.

The al Qaeda Blind Spot for the U.S. Approach to Turkey (16 February 2018) Turkey continues to prioritize its objectives to replace the Assad regime with a government friendly to Turkey’s interests and to eradicate a safe haven for the YPG’s Turkey affiliate—the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)—in Syria. Turkey prioritizes these objectives over U.S. counterterrorism goals against ISIS or al Qaeda.

‘No choice’: Syrians travel from one rebel area to another to find medicine (18 February 2018) Syrians who suffer from chronic illnesses are moving from one rebel area to another in search of medicine.

The Factory: A Glimpse Into Syria’s War Economy  (21 February 2018) War is big business. Since the start of Syria’s civil war in 2011, conflict traders have worked with regime and rebel commanders to take control of natural resources and markets, often giving rise to bizarre joint ventures between avowed enemies.

‘We can change this reality’: the women sharing news of war in Ghouta (24 February 2018) As bombs fall on the besieged area of Syria, women’s voices are at the forefront.

UN Security Council votes in favour of 30-day Syria ceasefire (24 February 2018) A unanimously approved resolution, drafted by Sweden and Kuwait, to enable aid deliveries and medical evacuations.

Rescuers in Syria’s Ghouta unable to count dead as bombing continues (24 February 2018) Five hundred civilians have been killed in the Syrian rebel-held enclave according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights

International open letter calls for end to ‘Syrian genocide’ (27 February 2018) A letter, signed by over 200 artists, writers and musicians, says governments should take steps to stop the bloodshed.

Exclusive: Chemical weapons watchdog investigates Ghouta attacks – sources (27 February 2018) The world’s chemical weapons watchdog opened an investigation on Sunday into attacks in the besieged, rebel-held Syrian region of eastern Ghouta to determine whether banned munitions had been used, diplomatic sources told Reuters.

Women in Syria ‘forced to exchange sexual favours’ for UN aid (27 February 2018) Women in refugee camps in Syria have been forced to offer sexual favours in return for aid from the United Nations, a report has found, in the latest accusation to hit the sector.

 

Documentaries, Special Reports, and Other Media

Damascus Room Completed at Last (14 February 2018) The room was relatively complete, lacking only its wood ceiling and certain architectural elements inherent to the structure of the house from which it was removed (such as the clerestory), and this, along with its comparatively fine condition, helped with the task.

Surviving as a child in the longest military siege in modern history  (18 February 2018) Speaking to 15-year-old Muhammed Najem, she explains what life is like for children growing up in the Eastern Ghouta siege.

Syria’s brides searching for love online (19 February 2018) As conditions in Syria worsen, women are connecting with their future partners online.

Research on Syria and What Syrians Want – A Conversation between Bassam Haddad and Rabie Nasr  (20 February 2018) This is a conversation between Bassam Haddad and Rabie Nasr on the activities and research of the Syrian Center for Policy Research and on critical issues related to the Syrian Uprising, including its causes and the polemics surrounding where Syrians stand six years on. It was conducted in Arabic in April 2017.

‘How I joined the jihadis by mistake’  (25 February 2018) More than 300 people from Kosovo went to join Islamists fighting “holy war” in Syria and Iraq – per capita the highest number in Europe. But not all of them match the popular image of a jihadi, as Helen Nianias discovered when she met a hipsterish young man for coffee in the Kosovan capital, Pristina.

Zanzibar’s tiny Syrian refugee community seeks slice of paradise (26 February 2018) There are just a few hundred Syrians in Tanzania and while some have managed to settle in, others struggle to find work.

Airwars monthly assessment: January 2018 (22 February 2018) Since the capture of Raqqa on October 20th marked the end of large-scale Coalition-backed urban fighting, the war against ISIS has entered a new stage. Both the Syrian and Iraqi governments have declared victory against ISIS as a territorial entity, though the Coalition remains active in both countries. Even as Airwars tracks a dramatic fall in civilian casualty events attributed to the alliance, its mission to monitor all casualty allegations from international actions remains unchanged.

Refugees and Trump’s America rule 2018 Berlin Film Festival (26 February 2018) The 2018 Berlinale did not break away from tradition, offering the same hefty plate of politics and society’s ills.

U.N. Links North Korea to Syria’s Chemical Weapon Program (27 February 2018) North Korea has been shipping supplies to the Syrian government that could be used in the production of chemical weapons, United Nations experts contend.

WATCH: Why Iran Backed Assad in Syria (27 February 2018) In part two of the FRONTLINE series, Bitter Rivals: Iran and Saudi Arabia, correspondent Martin Smith reports from inside regime-held areas in Syria on the conflict’s roots — and explores how Iran’s support for the Assad regime has helped fuel one of the most brutal wars in modern times.

 

Maps

Syria Situation Report: February 7 – 21, 2018 (21 February 2018) These graphics depict significant developments in the Syrian Civil War from February 7 – 21, 2018. The control of terrain represented on the graphics is accurate as of February 22, 2018.

Syria’s civil war explained from the beginning (22 February 2018) In March, the Syrian conflict will enter its 8th year. Meanwhile, more than 465,000 Syrians have been killed in the fighting, over a million injured, and over 12 million – half the country’s prewar population – have been displaced from their homes.

Under Siege: Syria’s Eastern Ghouta (26 February 2018) The suburb, 15km east of Damascus has an estimated population of 400,000, who have been under siege since 2013.

Eastern Ghouta: What is happening and why (26 February 2018) As a humanitarian ‘catastrophe’ unfolds in a rebel-held enclave outside Syria’s Damascus, Al Jazeera explains.

Syrian civil war map: Who controls what? (26 February 2018)A map of the Syrian civil war that shows who controls what after years of fighting.

 

Syria Conflict Quick Update: February 26 (26 February 2018)

The Carter Center: Syria Conflict Mapping Project Reports. Feb. 15-21, 2018 | Weekly Conflict Summary (26 February 2018) During this reporting period, the government siege and bombardment of Eastern Ghouta intensified significantly, resulting in one of the deadliest periods of bombardment to date. In northern Syria, two prominent opposition groups in the opposition-held Idleb pocket announced their unification as they launched attacks against Hai’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra). Operation Olive Branch, the ongoing Turkish-led offensive into Afrin, continued to gain territory this week amid numerous diplomatic discussions between NATO allies about the continuing fight.

Turkey Clears First Hurdle in Northern Syria’s Afrin (26 February 2018) Turkish forces and Turkish-backed rebels seized the final stretch of the Syria-Turkey border in Afrin from the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) on February 26, 2018. The seizure of the border accomplishes the first of five assessed Turkish operational objectives in Afrin. The next two assessed operational objectives are to isolate Afrin City and secure ground lines of communication to the border.

Shelling continues despite Putin’s call for ‘humanitarian pause’ in Syria (27 February 2018) Shelling and artillery fire continued in Syria’s besieged rebel-held enclave of Eastern Ghouta on Tuesday, interrupting a five-hour “humanitarian pause” ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

 

Arabic links

تحقيق خاص – تل الزعتر.. خفايا المعركة

 (18 February 2018)
سلط برنامج “تحقيق خاص” الضوء على المعركة التي شهدها مخيم تل الزعتر للاجئين الفلسطينيين في لبنان خلال الحرب الأهلية اللبنانية.

السوريات والقرار 1325

 (19 February 2018)

ورغم أن القرار 1325 لم يقدم خدمة مباشرة للسوريات، لا في خدمة النساء والفتيات في أوقات النزاع، ولا في حمايتهن من تبعات النزاع المسلح، لكنه يبقى قراراً مهماً يؤكد على الدور الهام للمرأة في بناء السلام وحفظ وتعزيز السلام والأمن، وعلى ضرورة مشاركة النساء في كل مراحل عملية السلام.

فيتو روسي على «تفاهم» عفرين… وفجوة أميركية ـ تركية حول منبج

 (20 February 2018)

عقد في حلب اجتماع ثلاثي ضم ممثلي «وحدات حماية الشعب» الكردية، وقوات الحكومة السورية، والجيش الروسي، لبحث ترتيبات متعلقة بعفرين شمال غربي حلب، في وقت جرت فيه اجتماعات بين مسؤولين في الجيشين الأميركي والتركي لبحث ترتيبات تتعلق بمدينة منبج شمال شرقي حلب.

حرب عفرين تفتتح مرحلة «الأردوغانية» وتختتم «الأتاتوركية» المترهلة

 (23 February 2018)

بعد مرور شهر على عملية «غصن الزيتون» ما زالت تركيا ورقة روسية قوية في وجه أميركا، لذلك تضغط روسيا بكل قوة على النظام السوري لضمان أن تكون صيغة الاتفاق بين النظام ووحدات حماية الشعب استسلامية وليست «شراكة ضد الاحتلال التركي»، ذلك أن أي صيغة غير الاستسلام تضر بمكانة أردوغان داخل تركيا، وتضعف الآمال الروسية في وضع تركيا وجهاً لوجه أمام أميركا.

فرع أكاديميّة باشاك شهير التركيّة في مدينة الباب… الوحيد الذي يقدّم شهادات جامعيّة معترف بها

 (23 February 2018)

افتتحت أكاديميّة باشاك شهير-فرع الباب بمساعدة تركيا، باعتبار المنطقة تتبع إلى النفوذ التركيّ، لكنّها تفرض رسوماً كبيرة بالنسبة إلى الطلّاب، ولا بدّ من وجود جامعات معترف بها عالميّاً تؤمّن فرصة التعليم الجامعيّ لآلاف الطلّاب من حملة الشهادات الثانويّة في منطقة درع الفرات، وإلّا سيبقى الخيار المفضّل لهؤلاء السفر لإكمال الدراسة.

The English version of this article can be found here:

Students in northern Syria depend on Turkey to complete degrees

صالح مسلم في شباك تفاهم أميركي ــ تركي

 (26 February 2018)

لا أحد يدري ما إذا كان الزعيم الكردي السوري صالح مسلم محمد قد سيق إلى كمين تركي في براغ. تزخر أحداث ليلة العاصمة التشيكية بألغاز المؤامرة التقليدية وفرضيتها. وقد تكون فصولها قد حيكت بين الأجهزة الأمنية التركية والتشيكية، قبل أن يقرع زوار الفجر التشيكيون باب غرفة فندق ماريوت لتكبيل نزيلها الذي قاد حزب «الاتحاد الديمقراطي» سبعة أعوام متصلة بين خريفي ٢٠١٠ و٢٠١٧، جاعلاً من فرع حزب العمال الكردستاني في سوريا حليفاً كبيراً للولايات المتحدة في الحرب على «داعش»، وعاملاً على تأسيس مشروع كردي في شمال سوريا

يوميات سورية: المواصلات في دمشق

 (27 February 2018)

غلاء أسعار المازوت وقلة الكمية الممنوحة للسائقين بالسعر النظامي، الأغاني الهابطة والشتائم، القذارة والروائح القاتلة نتيجة الازدحام وتراجع شروط النظافة الشخصية، توهان الركاب وأسئلتهم المتكررة عن وجهتهم وطلبهم للمساعدة في الهبوط والصعود، أطفال مكدّسون مع أمهم لتوفير ما يمكن من أجرة مقعدٍ بات الجلوس عليه بطراً وامتيازاً لا قدرة للبشر على ممارسته. إنها أزمة يومية خانقة حتى حدود المهانة، ولا شيء يشي بانفراجٍ نسبي يُزيح عن السكان مرارة الانتقال. معاركٌ يومية بأدوات غير عسكرية، لكنها مهينة وقاتلة.

الغوطة من خلال ثماني عيون

 (27 February 2018)

رزان زيتونة، سميرة الخليل، وائل حمادة وناظم حمادة، امرأتان ورجلان تم اختطافهم في 7 كانون الأول ـ ديسمبر 2013 من مكتب توثيق الانتهاكات، في مدينة دوما، في غوطة دمشق الشرقية، حيث كانوا يعملون كناشطين في صفوف الثورة السورية.

غوطة دمشق الشرقية… صمت ونار وحصار

 (27 February 2018)

لا يملك المدنيون في الغوطة الشرقية – يبلغ تعدادهم حوالي ٣٥٠ ألف – ملاجئ سوى بعض أقبية الأبنية، يحاولون الابتعاد قدر المستطاع عن الإصابة المباشرة بالشظايا والصواريخ المتعددة أسماؤُها وراجماتها، وتلك الأقبية – إن وُجِدت – ليست بآمنة كليّاً، فكثير من الأبنية تهاوت فوق رؤوس قاطنيها ودفنت من كان في الأقبية وهم أحياء.

وطن.. بالعين المجردة: معبد عين دارة ضحية أخرى للحرب السورية

 (27 February 2018)

بالعودة إلى عين دارة فهو موقعٌ جديد يضاف إلى قائمة المواقع التي شهدت الأيام الأخيرة مجزرة بحق الحجارة والقدسية التي وسمت المكان. أحاول في هذا المقال توثيق آثار المعبد ووصف أهميتها التي لن يتسنى للأجيال القادمة للأسف رؤية بعض أجزائه الفريدة التي دُمرت إثر الحملة العسكرية التركية على عفرين والحرب السورية التي أتت على عددٍ كبير من آثار هذه البلاد المنكوبة. كما سأحاول تسليط الضوء على الأجزاء التي تعرّضت للتدمير إثر الضربة الجوية مع التأكيد على عدم كفاية هذا التحليل دون المعاينة المباشرة من قبل آثاريين لتقييم الضرر وتوثيقه ودراسة إمكانيات الصيانة والترميم. وأختتم المقال بالتحدث قليلاً عن زيارة قصيرة للمعبد، لكنها مكثفة في الذاكرة.

سورية في ذكرى الوحدة

 (28 February 2018)

اكتملت ستون عامًا على تلك المحاولة العجولة لتشكيل وحدة بين بلدين عربيين، سورية  ومصر. كانت الوحدة حاجة عاطفية بالدرجة الأولى لشعبي البلدين، بعد التحرّر من الاحتلالات، ونيل الاستقلال، والتطلع إلى نهضة توصل البلاد إلى أولى الخطوات في السير في ركب الحضارة. فما الذي حدث، وجعل الولادة تنتهي بوليدٍ معاق غير قابل للحياة، فمات ولم يتجاوز سن الفطام بعد؟

[This article is published jointly in partnership with Jadaliyya.]

Syria in a Week (26 February 2018)

Syria in a Week (26 February 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.


It is as if the war is still in its beginning. The destruction, rubble, casualties, all parties of the conflict’s tough stances, and inability of the international community do not indicate a near end of the tragedy, but rather a continuation of it.

2401! – Ghouta Truce

24-25 February

Reuters, AFP, and Lancet

The UN Security Council approved Resolution 2401, which calls for a thirty-day truce in Syria to enable humanitarian-aid delivery and medical evacuations. The resolution excluded ISIS and al-Qaeda, as well as individuals and organizations associated with them.

Russia supported the resolution after last-minute negotiations. During one week of escalation in eastern Ghouta, three thousand people were killed or injured, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The vote came as military air jets bombed eastern Ghouta, the last enclave for the armed opposition, near the Syrian capital of Damascus for the seventh day in a row.

The Security Council session had been planned for Thursday, but it was delayed for two days amid tense negotiations between Russia and the rest of the members. The Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS) reported that during the two days of negotiations in New York one hundred and eighty people were killed, including forty-two children, and five hundred people were injured.

Secretary General of the UN Antonio Guterres called for an immediate end to “war activities.” After the adoption of the resolution, the escalation persisted amid mobilization of government forces to enter eastern Ghouta. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that military air jets bombed eastern Ghouta after the Security Council vote, amid fears that the truce would not be observed. AFP said that government forces launched a ground attack on eastern Ghouta on two fronts.

Russian and French Presidents Vladimir Putin and Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed the “importance of continuing common efforts in order to fully implement” the thirty-day truce called for in the Resolution.

Several international and humanitarian organizations condemned the attack on civilians in Ghouta. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said that the campaign in eastern Ghouta was a “genocide”. UNICEF also said, “We no longer have words to describe the children’s suffering in Syria.”

In a commentary on 23 February, the Lancet Magazine, which is specialized in public health, reported that “since 4 February 2018, Syrian forces with Russian support have bombarded eastern Ghouta, an enclave out of government control near Damascus.”

This military operation has left hundreds of civilians dead and more than one thousand and five hundred and fifty inured as of 21 February 2018. The PAX movement, an international peace movement, documented in only one day (20 February 2018) one hundred and ten civilians killed, hundreds injured, one hundred and thirty-one air strikes, forty-four barrel bombs, twenty-eight surface-to-surface missiles, five cluster bombs, and countless other artillery and rocket fire. Amnesty International regards this attack as a continuation of “large-scale war crimes.”

SAMS documented the bombardment of twenty-five hospitals and medical centers, some of which were bombed more than once, from 19 to 23 February 2018. Concurrently, armed groups replied by bombarding neighborhoods in Damascus killing and injuring tens of civilians.

 

2401 Does not Include Afrin

21-25 February 2018

AFP and Reuters

The Olive Branch Operation, launched by Turkish forces alongside Syrian opposition armed factions, has continued and advanced in Afrin countryside on more than one front. The Afrin front has witnessed dangerous developments this week with the Syrian government sending “popular” armed forces to support the People’s Protection Units (YPG) in confronting Turkish forces and armed opposition factions. A number of YPG fighters have been transferred from Aleppo to Afrin. Turkey threatened that its forces will target any party that provides support for Kurdish forces, adding that such a step may lead to a “catastrophe.” (AFP)

In the same context, the Turkish army bombed a convoy heading to Afrin. Ankara said that it carried fighters and weapons, whereas Kurdish forces said that it carried civilians bringing food and medicine. (Reuters)

In line with the contradictions of the Syrian tragedy, the Turkish Foreign Ministry welcomed in a statement on Sunday “the resolution adopted by the UN Security Council in response to the deteriorating humanitarian conditions throughout Syria, and especially in eastern Ghouta.” However, the Foreign Ministry added that Turkey “remains determined to combat terrorist organizations that threaten the territorial and political integrity in Syria.” Without directly referring to the Security Council Resolution, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan emphasized that there will be no truce in the Turkish military operation in Afrin, north of Syria. (AFP)

In a new development, Turkey demanded the extradition of the Syrian Kurdish leader Saleh Muslim who was arrested in Prague, after Turkey put him on the list of terrorists. The Democratic Society Movement, a coalition of mainly Kurdish parties that administers areas controlled by Kurdish fighters in northern Syria, announced the arrest of Muslim in the Czech capital on Saturday night, in a statement published in Beirut, Lebanon. (AFP)

Syria in a Week (29 January 2018)

Syria in a Week (29 January 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.


Afrin… A New Rift in Syria

28 January 2018

The Turkish army’s “Operation Olive Branch”, which was launched along with factions from the Free Syrian Army (FSA), has unveiled the complex facets of the tragedy in Syria and opened up a new front with consequences that are difficult to predict.

The battles spanned many fronts, as Turkey used its air force, artillery, and tanks. It relied on its allies in the FSA for the ground assault. Turkish reinforcements continue, including mobilization of ground troops, which indicates a long battle with no clear-set objectives. Statements by Turkish officials ranged from taking control of Afrin and expanding the battles toward other areas such as Manbij and northern Iraq to settling for the siege of Afrin and removing the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG).

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan previously announced that his country’s objective is the “return of three and a half million Syrian refugees to their country.”

On the other hand, a Kurdish official announced that the YPG will continue to confront the Turkish assault and that it has received reinforcements from YPG forces in eastern Syria.

Interestingly, Turkey began to signal its intent to expand the operation to include Manbij, where the US army deploys a military force. Erdogan said that the operation will include Manbij and areas controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria. The SDF said that Turkey will face a “proper response” if it carried out its threat in expanding the assault against armed Kurdish factions in northern Syria all the way to Iraqi borders.

The authorities in Afrin published a statement calling on “the Syrian state to carry out its sovereign obligations towards Afrin and protect its borders from the attacks of the Turkish occupier, as it has not fulfilled its responsibility up to now although it has declared so officially … and deploy its Syrian armed forces to secure the borders of the Afrin area.” (Reuters)

With the fighting entering its second week and multiple battle fronts, Turkish forces and their allied FSA factions have yet to achieve a major breakthrough on the ground in a complex terrain and amidst resistance from the YPG.

 

Positions of the Various Parties

Western governments, including Germany and France, have called on Turkey to “exercise restraint”, whereas Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan affirmed that his government is determined on “crushing” anything that poses a threat to Turkey (AFP). France called for a meeting of the UN Security Council on 22 January, however, it did not result in a joint statement or a condemnation.

The Turkish-American contention was exacerbated further by Turkey’s demand for US forces to be withdrawn from Manbij (AFP) and the cessation of arms supplies to the SDF and YPG. The US side, which is allied with the SDF, introduced the idea of a thirty-kilometer-deep safe zone in Syrian territories that runs along Turkey’s border, however, Turkey refused the idea due to the “lack of trust” in Washington.

The Syrian regime, according to an official source in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, expressed “the Syrian Arab Republic’s strong condemnation of the brutal Turkish aggression against the city of Afrin, which is an integral part of Syrian territories,” and called on the international community to “condemn this aggression and take the necessary steps to stop it immediately.” (SANA)

The Russian position toward the Turkish intervention was conservative and focused on the importance of preserving the integrity of Syrian territories, while encouraging the self-administration to coordinate with the Syrian government. Russia repositioned its military police in Afrin away from confrontation areas.

As for the Syrian opposition, the National Coalition announced its support for Operation Olive Branch in a statement circulated one day after its launch, in order to rid Afrin of the YPG. Numerous armed factions have also stated their support for the attack and participated in it directly from both Syrian and Turkish territories.

Initial Losses … Permanent Scars

Afrin has enjoyed relative stability since 2012. Many of the displaced have settled there, due to its booming economic activities as a result of its resources and location among several unstable areas. The city’s economy also flourished after battles erupted between Hayat Tahir al-Sham and other factions in Idlib city and countryside last July. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham seized control over Idlib, which prompted Turkey to close the Bab al-Hawa border crossing. The commercial route was then switched to the Bab al-Salamah border crossing north of Aleppo. Convoys carrying oil, building materials, and other basic goods started to enter the crossing towards the western countryside of Aleppo and Idlib governorate, passing through Afrin.

However, after the launch of Operation Olive Branch, this commercial route was halted, negatively affecting Afrin, opposition areas in Idlib city and countryside, and Hama countryside (Inab Baladi). According to SANA, the Turkish assault resulted in the death of eighty-six civilians and left another two hundred injured in just one week, in addition to the displacement of thousands of civilians from their homes and villages, and major destruction in homes, infrastructure, and historical ruins (SANA). The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the confrontations have left more than one hundred and ten dead in the ranks of Syrian fighters allied with Turkey and the YPG since last Saturday, as well as the death of thirty-eight civilians, most of whom died as a result of Turkish bombardment. The Turkish army said that “at least three hundred and ninety-four terrorists were neutralized” in the operation, whereas two Turkish soldiers were killed on Tuesday, raising the number of Turkish soldiers who have been killed since the start of the operation to five, in addition to forty injured soldiers. (AFP)

The danger in the Afrin battle is that it strengthens all elements for the continuation of the conflict in Syria as a result of the direct participation of the Turkish army in the fighting and the bombardment of an area that was considered to be stable, with all the destruction, killing, and animosity that a military intervention carries. The battle deepened divisions between Syrians, as opposition factions have headed to fight Syrians in Afrin. This was used by some parties to politicize identity, taking advantage of Syrian, Kurd, and Arab nationalisms, and to justify violence against the other. The battle also constitutes a new form of war economy through providing direct incentives for some groups such as weapons and financial support, or indirect incentives by allowing the seizure of property and the control of new routes for smuggling; in addition to the negative incentives such as blockades, displacement, and deprivation of the most basic elements of life.

 

Vienna … A Meeting in Lost Time

26-27 January 2018

Syrian peace talks were concluded on Friday in Vienna without any progress in solving the seven-year-old crisis. The Syrian opposition received a Russian commitment to a ceasefire in the besieged eastern Ghouta, near Damascus, starting at midnight Friday. However, the deal did not hold up.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that the bombardment of eastern Ghouta, which is controlled by the opposition, continued early Saturday after a spokesperson for the opposition had announced late Friday that Russia pledged to seek a ceasefire. (Reuters)

A group of five countries (United States, Britain, France, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia), also called “the small group”, presented a paper supporting a political solution in Syria on Thursday 25 January. The paper included proposals regarding the constitution, elections, presidential and governmental powers, and the status of security apparatuses, according to Resolution 2254. The paper focused on limiting the president’s powers in the amended constitution, while expanding the powers of the prime minister and giving powers to “provincial governments”. The paper also focused on the importance of including all Syrians at home and abroad in the new electoral law. It stressed the importance of reforming the security apparatuses and subjecting them to civil authorities to ensure accountability (Al-Jazeera). The delegation of the Syrian government to Vienna rejected the non-official paper altogether.

 

Sochi … Dialogue without the Opposition

28 January 2018

Middle East

Secretary General of the UN Antonio Guterres has decided to ask Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura to attend the Syrian National Dialogue Conference in Sochi on 29 and 30 January, despite the lack of progress in the Vienna negotiations and the Syrian Negotiation Committee’s declaration that it will boycott the conference. Major Kurdish forces have also declared that they will not participate in the conference.

According to the Middle East newspaper, the conference will focus on two documents: the final statement that includes the acknowledgement of the twelve principles set by the Special Envoy which were developed according to a draft prepared by the consultant of the Special Envoy Vitaly Naumkin, and an appeal to the Syrian people; in addition to the formation of three committees: the Sochi Conference Committee, the Constitution Committee, and the Elections Committee.

The conference has sparked wide controversy since its announcement. Most opposition forces fear that it will be a substitute for the Geneva talks and that Russian supervision over the preparation and invitations will be used as leverage by the regime to exclude the opposition’s demands, including commitment to political transition according to Security Council Resolution 2254.

 

United States in Raqqa … Stability without Reconstruction

22 January 2018

The Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) said after a visit to Raqqa that the civil mission was not to rebuild but to help civilians return home by clearing roadside bombs, lifting the rubble, restoring electric power, and fixing water pipes. He added: “The mission for us is stabilization not reconstruction… Our part of it is restoring essential services and there is a lot of work to do.” He said that he would be heading to Europe in the coming days to press allies to help in stabilization efforts.

Syrian Humanitarian ‘Lifeline’ Goes to Vote

Syrian Humanitarian ‘Lifeline’ Goes to Vote

“The United Nations Security Council is expected to decide this week on whether to renew its legal mandate for Syria’s cross-border humanitarian response. The Security Council vote has the potential to remake the life-saving humanitarian architecture that has been built around the country’s years-long civil war.

The Security Council’s decision may also—despite efforts by backers of renewal to cast it as a purely humanitarian measure—have real political significance. Since 2014, the Security Council has sanctioned cross-border aid without the consent of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, a powerful symbol of Syria’s disintegration and broken sovereignty. The re-centering of the international humanitarian response in Damascus would be another step towards restoring the Assad regime’s international legitimacy and effective political control.

If the Security Council ends this humanitarian framework, it will be another symbolic victory for the Assad regime. But it will also complicate and endanger the humanitarian aid that millions of Syrians rely on—and with which the regime is likely to interfere if it can reassert its hold on aid delivery. It was the regime’s intransigence and abuse that originally prompted the United Nations to suspend the normal rules of state sovereignty. Now, with no real improvement in its conduct, the regime is poised to claw back control over aid to populations it considers hostiles and enemies of the state.

Humanitarians are just hoping to continue providing aid to millions inside Syria, and to keep their own principles mostly intact.

“We’re afraid of getting sucked into a political and diplomatic conversation we have very little control of, and being forced to pronounce ourselves in favor of non-humanitarian compromises,” one humanitarian source told me. 1 Like more than a dozen other humanitarians and donor-country diplomats, he spoke to me on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the upcoming vote and so as not to threaten his organization’s continued work.

Since July 2014, United Nations Security Council resolution 2165 and its various successor resolutions have enabled the delivery of assistance to millions in areas unreachable from Damascus. UNSCR 2165’s mandate has allowed UN agencies to provide assistance themselves and to play a key coordinating role in the broader response, as well as lending international legitimacy to cross-border work by local and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs). But 2165 has only been renewed in year-long installments, and the current mandate expires on January 10. A Security Council vote to renew the resolution is, as of this writing, expected to be held on Tuesday, December 19.

Renewal essentially depends on the vote of permanent member of the Security Council and Assad-regime ally Russia, and no one has a really reliable sense of what Russia wants. In advance of the vote, Russia has taken a critical line on renewal, complaining about aid diversion and the measure’s violation of Syrian sovereignty. “This mechanism cannot be maintained in its current form,” Russia’s UN envoy said last month.2

Most expect that 2165 will be renewed—this time. But even an extension is likely to be only a temporary reprieve, sources told me: a conditional renewal for six months or a year before the resolution is allowed to expire totally. And no one knows for sure. It remains possible that Russia will just veto a renewal outright, leaving humanitarians scrambling to reorganize the response before January 11.

The humanitarians and donors involved in the cross-border response are swimming against a current that runs, inexorably, towards Damascus.

Either way, the humanitarians and donors involved in the cross-border response are swimming against a current that runs, inexorably, towards Damascus. For millions of Syrians caught in that vortex, cross-border assistance provided under UNSCR 2165 has been, in the words of a top UN relief official, a “lifeline.”3

“These [relief] organizations will be going, at some point, back to the origin,” a humanitarian told me. “Cross-border will die. What concerns me is the way it will die.”4

The Genesis of the UN Cross-Border Response

The Security Council passed UNSCR 2165 in July 2014. The resolution was an expression of international frustration with the Assad regime’s obstruction of aid to besieged and other insurgent-held areas. It came after an earlier resolution aimed at opening up humanitarian access had been ignored.5

The original Security Council resolution authorized UN agencies and their implementing partners to provide cross-border assistance “with notification to the Syrian authorities”—not advance permission from Damascus.6 It permitted the use of four official border crossings, “in addition to those already in use.” That latter clause arguably legitimated the use of unofficial border points such as Fish Khabour, the sole operational crossing to Syria’s northeast.7 The resolution also mandated the creation of a monitoring mechanism for cross-border UN assistance.

UNSCR 2165 also allowed notification-only cross-line assistance—that is, across conflict lines from regime-held areas to opposition-held areas—but no aid agencies ultimately acted on that permission.

UN agencies have used the 2165 mandate to deliver cross-border assistance from Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq to sections of Syria that have fallen out of central state control. Under the UN mechanism, UN-supported humanitarian cargoes are inspected and sealed before crossing into the country, and some NGOs also use the UN’s cross-border logistics capacity. UN agencies have also partnered with local Syrian and international NGOs to provide cross-border aid, funding them through sub-grants. And the UN has played a key leadership and coordination role in the broader cross-border response, establishing a “Whole of Syria” architecture and a set of “clusters” to coordinate relief actors.

UN-supplied aid is only a fraction of the cross-border aid response. Cross-border aid predated UNSCR 2165, and it also includes humanitarian assistance from NGOs, relief from Gulf charities, and Western-funded “stabilization” assistance for civil society, basic services, and governance. Much of this is sustained remotely through cash transfers, or enters Syria as commercial cargo and is not checked by the UN monitoring mechanism.

But UN assistance is nonetheless vital. According to the UN Secretary-General’s most recent reporting, in October the UN delivered food aid to more than 797,700 people via cross-border convoys.8 This is in addition to other UN assistance and the systemic impact of the UN’s coordination role on the broader cross-border relief effort, which supports millions. Cross-border beneficiaries were reached consistently—not intermittently, as with cross-line assistance from Damascus. According to the most recent Security Council briefing by UN humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock, on average, just over a quarter of beneficiaries included in bi-monthly access plans actually received cross-line aid, as the government declined to allow UN convoys to proceed.9 Lowcock said in an October briefing that, on average, only 10 percent of people in besieged opposition-held areas were reached with UN assistance each month this year. Key items, including medical supplies, are regularly removed from aid convoys.10

“Our experience with cross-line operations from within Syria,” Lowcock said in October, “leads us to believe that it would be impossible to reach those people in a sustained manner from within Syria.”

“The renewal of the resolution is essential to save lives,” he reiterated last month.

The nonrenewal of UNSCR 2165 would put a halt to UN cross-border assistance and have a larger systemic impact on the cross-border response, including on the international legitimacy and acceptability of cross-border aid generally.

Security Council Maneuvering

Humanitarians told me that as late as this summer, no one was worried about the renewal of UNSCR 2165. By this fall, though, it had become a major concern and a preoccupation of humanitarians and donors—albeit a quiet one.

There has been a conscious collective effort to avoid bringing too much public attention to 2165, even as, privately, it has been the talk of the aid community.11Backers of renewal have mostly avoided activist-y letters or public statements, and instead relied on closed-door meetings and advocacy in New York.

“We’re trying to keep a lid on this,” one humanitarian told me. “By upping the attention, we give Russia leverage we don’t want them to have.”12

Humanitarians have even avoided creating formal contingency plans, the existence of which might signal their readiness to yield on “technical rollover”—un-amended, year-long renewal. “Plan A is a technical rollover,” said the same humanitarian, speaking last month. “Our line is that there is no Plan B.”13

The Security Council’s three permanent Western members—the United States, Britain, and France, the “P3”—favor technical rollover, as do many non-permanent members. The Syrian government, unsurprisingly, is against it. The Syrians claimthat most cross-border assistance ends up in the hands of “terrorist groups” and that these crossings are used to arm militants.14

But the swing vote, the only one that really matters, is Russia. Last December, Russia voted for the passage of UNSCR 2332, the latest renewal of 2165. But that vote came after a bruising fight in the Security Council over Aleppo, whose rebel-held eastern neighborhoods were collapsing,15 and Russia might have had its fill of international reprobation. In 2017, Russia just repeatedly vetoed attempts to renew the internationally sanctioned mechanism to investigate chemical weapons attacks in Syria—a sign that Moscow may be done caring about global outrage.16

Russia has signaled, in public and private, that it wants to see the end of UNSCR, at least as it currently exists. In a statement at the Security Council last month, Russia’s UN envoy Vassily Nebenzia made public complaints that Russia had already made privately about aid diversion and insufficient monitoring of cross-border assistance. He said that, thanks to talks sponsored by Russia in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana, the volume of cross-line convoys has increased. In addition, he stressed, 2165 violates Syrian sovereignty. The resolution “is an unprecedented and extreme measure that must now be reassessed,” Nebenzia said.17

Humanitarians are emphatic that “de-escalation” agreements, including those concluded in Astana, have not improved cross-line access. “The paradox is that cross-line access doesn’t really exist, and now we’re talking about stopping cross-border,” one told me.18 They also stress the robustness of the UN monitoring mechanism, on the border and at delivery points.

What exactly Russia wants in exchange for renewing 2165 is unclear. They have floated some amendments and trades in private, including discussion of a new monitoring mechanism. But if the mechanism concentrates on the border, it would seem set up to fail; it wouldn’t capture most non-UN NGO assistance, much of which is based on cash transfers into Syria and local procurement of goods.

Or Russia may just want to close out UNSCR 2165 and move forward. On December 11, Russian president Vladimir Putin visited Syria’s Hmeimim Airbase to declare victory in the fight over the Islamic State and order a partial withdrawal of Russian forces from Syria.19 Russia is trying to turn the international focus to Syria’s political process and post-war reconstruction. The expiration of 2165 would be a major symbolic step towards the international re-legitimization of the Assad regime and normalcy.

The Russian mission to the UN did not respond to a request for comment prior to publication.

Donor governments and humanitarians are working for UNSCR 2165’s renewal, but it’s not clear how they can affect Russia’s thinking. Even if Russia appears to negotiate, both sides may just be working towards a position Russia has already decided in advance.

As of this writing, the pro-renewal camp has deliberately avoided politicizing the debate over 2165. “We see this as a purely humanitarian mechanism that gets aid to the people who need it the quickest, and closest, and most effective way,” said one Western diplomat. “It’s not a political thing, from our perspective.”

“When the Council discusses this issue, it should be on the basis that it is a purely humanitarian tool,” he said.20

The most likely scenario at the time of this writing seems to be renewal of six months to a year with what could be considered a “sunset clause”—for example, a requirement that the UN Secretary-General report on how to improve the assistance monitoring mechanism, which would lay the groundwork for either a substantial revision of 2165 or its end. After this abbreviated renewal period, Russia could decline to renew again.

“I don’t believe it’s not going to be renewed. It would be too much of a headache for everyone,” said one humanitarian. “I think Russia is quite aware right now that cross-border intervention is serving their interests, although it threatens the territorial integrity of the Syrian government.

“They can live with it for a couple months,” she said. “But I don’t think it will be renewed past the summer.”21

Russia evidently wants UNSCR 2165 to conclude, but an alternative humanitarian mechanism doesn’t yet exist. The humanitarian community is unprepared for an abrupt end to 2165. Six or nine more months, though, might get them partway there.

“If 2165 is extended a couple months,” the same humanitarian told me, “that could give people a big kick in the ass to work out an alternative way to do operations.”22

After UNSCR 2165

Still, there are limits to how much relief agencies can adapt to the end of internationally sanctioned cross-border access.

The worst scenario is that UNSCR 2165 is abruptly vetoed this week and aid organizations are caught flat-footed. In that case, a humanitarian told me, “Plan B is not a plan—just a Titanic moment, where we have to distribute life vests. And I guess the UN will be the orchestra. Just keep playing.”23

But the termination of 2165 seems inevitable, either now or next year. Meanwhile, the reasons why the cross-border aid effort exists—and why a newly Damascus-centric response would be disastrous—will not change.

The Damascus relief hub does not have the capacity to compensate for the cross-border response, humanitarians told me. The main obstacle is access—specifically, the impenetrable Syrian government bureaucracy that humanitarians must navigate to secure permissions for cross-line aid convoys. This multi-layer authorization process has not been meaningfully reformed or relaxed, and no humanitarians I spoke to expected it to improve.

When the regime does okay cross-line convoys, it removes key items, caps relief quantities, and rounds down UN population estimates. Thus, even the limited numbers of successful relief convoys can be deceiving. “Access has become the metric of the success of the response,” said the same humanitarian, saying that just because convoy goes in doesn’t mean it’s delivered what’s most needed. “The convoy is counted as ‘reached.’ It’s a volumetric extrapolation.”24

A secondary obstacle is that many rebel-held areas are resistant to receiving aid via Damascus, which they see as having political strings attached. They are unfriendly in particular to the Syrian Arab Red Crescent, which is regarded as a political actor.

The cross-border and the cross-line response are complementary. “We’re trying to push the message that both [cross-border and cross-line] should continue,” said another humanitarian. “The worst-case scenario is that the resolution is not renewed, but there also isn’t more access from Damascus. It would be a disaster for this population.”25

“For us, cross-border is not preferred,” said another. “But we’re concerned about the lack of any other viable mechanism.”26

While nonrenewal of UNSCR 2165 would not be good, its precise impact is unclear. The ramifications for the UN seem mostly known. UN agencies will likely be obliged to base out of Damascus and halt cross-border activities. But for the broader cross-border response, there are a number of variables at work, including the respective reactions of NGOs, donors, and neighboring countries. How much will each of these parties be willing to flout Syrian sovereignty and law, particularly when the Syrian regime-state is making a comeback?

For example, the unofficial Tal Shihab crossing on Syria’s southern border with Jordan “is being used by [international NGOs] thanks to, let’s say, a flexible approach by the Jordanians,” said one humanitarian. “That’s a liberty that’s been agreed to by the Jordanians. The question is how much the Jordanians would like to maintain that unofficial border crossing and put themselves in what would probably be a confrontational stance with the Syrians.

“We’re not in 2013, 2014 anymore, when everyone was betting on Bashar’s regime falling down.”27

Many donor countries seem likely to continue their support for cross-border humanitarian assistance. And local and international NGOs could continue working, although they will likely be hit by the loss of UN funding for cross-border programming. Some organizations use the UN mechanisms at the official crossings and lack permissions to send relief through unofficial crossings, which will likely be strained by additional use. And without international legal legitimacy, these NGOs will be vulnerable. Their cross-border activities are illegal under Syrian law, so, for legal cover, they will depend on the goodwill of Syria’s neighbors and their appetite for violating Syrian sovereignty.

Both Turkey and Jordan seem to have recognized that the project of regime change in Syria, in which they participated, has failed. The two countries would both prefer cross-border aid to continue to avoid destabilizing these border areas and setting off new refugee flows, and Turkey has now occupied and taken more direct ownership of sections of Aleppo and Idlib. But Turkey, at least, has already cracked down on relief NGOs,28 and Jordan’s position on the Assad regime is ambiguous.29 If reduced cross-border access drove NGOs to, for example, rely more heavily on informal cash transfers to local partners and inside-Syria procurement of supplies, that might be enough to make either country nervous about money changing hands unaccountably and push them to run out more relief organizations. Their staff might be in danger of arrest or deportation.

The unofficial Fish Khabour crossing with Iraq poses its own challenges. It is the main artery of support for Syria’s northeast, which is now controlled by America’s local Kurdish partners in the military campaign against the Islamic State. Because Turkey has closed its border—it considers that Kurdish force a grave terrorist threat—relief and stabilization assistance runs through Fish Khabour. If the end of 2165 imperils NGOs’ ability to send in staff and supplies, that could in turn undermine U.S.-led post-Islamic State stabilization efforts.

The United States might have to make a special diplomatic effort to keep Fish Khabour open and to ensure that whatever Iraqi force is manning the crossing’s other side keeps traffic running. The Assad regime specifically objects to the use of Fish Khabour. In an October letter to the UN Secretary-General and the President of the Security Council, Syrian UN envoy Bashar al-Jaafari claimed that Fish Khabour is not covered by UNSCR 2165 and said its use violates Syrian sovereignty. Yet his letter omitted the “in addition to those already in use” clause that has been used to justify aid through Fish Khabour.30 The crossing figures into Syrian objections both to foreign occupation of Syrian territory and international support for allegedly separatist, non-state governance structures.

But all these reverberations will seemingly shake the relief effort regardless of Tuesday’s vote. UNSCR 2165 cannot last forever. The normal international order does not accommodate this sort of exceptional humanitarian measure. Eventually, the millions of Syrians in areas outside regime control will suffer—although, with luck, not yet.

“If we thought this was something durable, we were wrong,” a humanitarian told me. “It was always temporary.”31

Humanitarian Aid and Political Power

Relief organizations are already reorienting towards Damascus, humanitarians told me, and applying for registration to work under the Assad regime. They want to serve needy Syrians where they are; by now, most are living in areas of regime control.

But the regime has not somehow gotten more magnanimous or accommodating as its fortunes have improved. “The Syrian government has been getting more arrogant with NGOs,” said one humanitarian. “They say, if you want to operate from Damascus, you need to accept A, B, C, and D. Are we ready to accept?”32

“I doubt they’ll forgive, and I doubt they’ll forget. You will be marked,” another told me, discussing NGOs that had operated cross-border from Syria’s neighbors and that actually manage to register in Damascus.

“So you’ll have a tier of NGOs who have been in Damascus, and will get preferential treatment for access, and a tier in Damascus who will basically be procurement agencies for [the Syrian Arab Red Crescent],” he said. “Life will be fucking miserable, they’ll make them pay.”33

This return to Damascus will only further subvert humanitarians’ sacrosanct principles of humanity, neutrality, impartiality, and independence. For years, it has been debatable whether the Syrian aid response was “principled.” Some humanitarians maintain that when NGOs split between one cohort in Damascus and another operating cross-border from Syria’s neighbors and, arguably, chose sides in the country’s war, neutrality and impartiality were finished. But operating from Damascus under a revanchist Assad regime will mean a new level of compromise.

“Ultimately, what [Damascus wants] to achieve is total control of humanitarian action,” a humanitarian told me. “The principle of impartiality, they don’t know about that. They want to be sure assistance is delivered as a peace dividend, not based on needs.”34

The shift of the international humanitarian effort to Damascus is a reflection of the regime’s mounting strength and centrality, but it is also, in real terms, an integral part of that power dynamic.

The shift of the international humanitarian effort to Damascus is a reflection of the regime’s mounting strength and centrality, but it is also, in real terms, an integral part of that power dynamic. Humanitarians are not observers to the Syrian war, they are participants.

“We should be careful considering the Syrian government the final winner,” said another humanitarian. “If we think this is the future, the final outcome, we’re probably empowering this government.

“There needs to be some reflection,” he continued. “Are we changing history with our actions? We’re probably not the biggest actor, but there are repercussions to what NGOs do.”35

In a country in which assistance is now a major part of the economy, aid flows mean economic and political power. A post-2165 Syria with a single relief hub in Damascus—as opposed to several, including ones in Gaziantep, Amman, and Deirik—is a Syria with a single center of political gravity, towards which all the country’s restive peripheral regions will find themselves drawn. The end of UNSCR 2165 and the reordering of the humanitarian response is another step towards the return of Syria as a single, integral country ruled by the regime from Damascus.

UNSCR 2165 was a suspension of the normal rules of an international system premised on state sovereignty and legitimacy. It couldn’t last.

That system broke down in Syria as the state and country fell apart. Now the regime-led Syrian state is reconstituting itself, and the walls of that system are being rebuilt around it. Inside, Syrians will be trapped.

Notes

  1. Humanitarian source, interview with the author, Beirut, Lebanon, November 2017.
  2. “Statement by Ambassador Vassily A. Nebenzia, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations, at the Security Council on the humanitarian situation in Syria,” Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the United Nations, November 29, 2017, http://russiaun.ru/en/news/gsyr2911?auto=format.
  3. “Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Mark Lowcock: Statement to the Security Council on the humanitarian situation in Syria, 30 October 2017,” UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Reliefweb, October 30, 2017, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/under-secretary-general-humanitarian-affairs-and-emergency-relief-73.
  4. Humanitarian source, interview with the author, Beirut, Lebanon, November 2017.
  5. Rick Gladstone, “U.N. Council, in Unanimous Vote, Backs Aid Delivery to Syrians in Rebel Areas,” New York Times, July 14, 2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/15/world/middleeast/un-security-council-authorizes-strengthened-syria-aid.html.
  6. “With Millions of Syrians in Need, Security Council Adopts Resolution 2165 (2014) Directing Relief Delivery through More Border Crossings, across Conflict Lines,” United Nations, July 14, 2014, https://www.un.org/press/en/2014/sc11473.doc.htm.
  7. The four named official crossings are Dara’a/al-Ramtha, with Jordan; Bab al-Hawa/Cilvegözü and Bab al-Salamah/Öncüpınar, with Turkey; and al-Ya’roubiyyeh/Rabi’ah, with Iraq. Other unofficial crossings that were already in use include, in addition to Fish Khabour, the Tal Shihab crossing with Jordan.
  8. “Implementation of Security Council resolutions 2139 (2014), 2165 (2014), 2191 (2014), 2258 (2015) and 2332 (2016) – Report of the Secretary-General (S/2017/982),” UN Security Council, Reliefweb, November 16, 2017, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/implementation-security-council-resolutions-2139-2014-2165-2014-2191-19
  9. “Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Mark Lowcock: Statement to the Security Council on the humanitarian situation in Syria, 29 November 2017,” UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, Reliefweb, November 29, 2017, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/under-secretary-general-humanitarian-affairs-and-emergency-relief-74.
  10. “Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Mark Lowcock: Statement to the Security Council on the humanitarian situation in Syria, 30 October 2017,” UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
  11. For one of the few instances where the issue has broken into the public discussion, see Somini Sengupta, “Russia Balks at Cross-Border Humanitarian Aid in Syria,” New York Times, December 6, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/06/world/middleeast/syria-russia-humanitarian-aid.html.
  12. Humanitarian source, interview with the author, Beirut, Lebanon, November 2017.
  13. Ibid.
  14. “Munzer: Al-Hukouma al-Souriyyah Mustamirrah fi Isal al-Musa’idat al-Insaniyyah Raghm Khurouqat al-Irhabiyyin fi Manatiq Takhfif al-Tawattur (Munzer: Syrian Government Continues to Deliver Humanitarian Assistance Despite Terrorists’ Breaches in De-escalation Zones),” SANA, November 29, 2017, https://www.sana.sy/?p=668443.
  15. Sam Heller, “Aleppo’s Bitter Lessons,” The Century Foundation, January 27, 2017, https://tcf.org/content/report/aleppos-bitter-lessons/.
  16. Aron Lund, “Russia has finished off the UN’s Syria chemical attack probe. What now?” IRIN News, November 20, 2017, https://www.irinnews.org/analysis/2017/11/20/russia-has-finished-un-s-syria-chemical-attack-probe-what-now.
  17. “Statement by Ambassador Vassily A. Nebenzia, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations, at the Security Council on the humanitarian situation in Syria,” Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the United Nations.
  18. Humanitarian source, author’s interview, Beirut, Lebanon, November 2017.
  19. “Vladimir Putin visited Khmeimim Air Base in Syria,” President of Russia, December 11, 2017, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56351.
  20. Western diplomat, author’s interview, phone call, November 2017.
  21. Humanitarian, author’s interview, phone call, November 2017.
  22. Ibid.
  23. Humanitarian source, author’s interview, Beirut, Lebanon, November 2017.
  24. Ibid.
  25. Humanitarian, author’s interview, phone call, November 2017.
  26. Humanitarian source, author’s interview, Beirut, Lebanon, November 2017.
  27. Humanitarian, author’s interview, phone call, November 2017.
  28. Sam Heller, “Turkish Crackdown on Humanitarians Threatens Aid to Syrians,” The Century Foundation, May 3, 2017, https://tcf.org/content/report/turkish-crackdown-humanitarians-threatens-aid-syrians/.
  29. Aron Lund, “Opening Soon: The Story of a Syrian-Jordanian Border Crossing,” The Century Foundation, September 7, 2017, https://tcf.org/content/commentary/opening-soon-story-syrian-jordanian-border-crossing/.
  30. Provided to author by humanitarian source, November 2017.
  31. Humanitarian, author’s interview, phone call, November 2017.
  32. Humanitarian, author’s interview, Beirut, Lebanon, November 2017.
  33. Humanitarian, author’s interview, Beirut, Lebanon, November 2017.
  34. Humanitarian, author’s interview, phone call, November 2017.
  35. Humanitarian, author’s interview, Beirut, Lebanon, November 2017.”

 

Sam Heller

[This article was originally published by The Century Foundation.]