بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | يناير 30, 2018 | Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Afrin… A New Rift in Syria
28 January 2018
The Turkish army’s “Operation Olive Branch”, which was launched along with factions from the Free Syrian Army (FSA), has unveiled the complex facets of the tragedy in Syria and opened up a new front with consequences that are difficult to predict.
The battles spanned many fronts, as Turkey used its air force, artillery, and tanks. It relied on its allies in the FSA for the ground assault. Turkish reinforcements continue, including mobilization of ground troops, which indicates a long battle with no clear-set objectives. Statements by Turkish officials ranged from taking control of Afrin and expanding the battles toward other areas such as Manbij and northern Iraq to settling for the siege of Afrin and removing the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG).
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan previously announced that his country’s objective is the “return of three and a half million Syrian refugees to their country.”
On the other hand, a Kurdish official announced that the YPG will continue to confront the Turkish assault and that it has received reinforcements from YPG forces in eastern Syria.
Interestingly, Turkey began to signal its intent to expand the operation to include Manbij, where the US army deploys a military force. Erdogan said that the operation will include Manbij and areas controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria. The SDF said that Turkey will face a “proper response” if it carried out its threat in expanding the assault against armed Kurdish factions in northern Syria all the way to Iraqi borders.
The authorities in Afrin published a statement calling on “the Syrian state to carry out its sovereign obligations towards Afrin and protect its borders from the attacks of the Turkish occupier, as it has not fulfilled its responsibility up to now although it has declared so officially … and deploy its Syrian armed forces to secure the borders of the Afrin area.” (Reuters)
With the fighting entering its second week and multiple battle fronts, Turkish forces and their allied FSA factions have yet to achieve a major breakthrough on the ground in a complex terrain and amidst resistance from the YPG.
Positions of the Various Parties
Western governments, including Germany and France, have called on Turkey to “exercise restraint”, whereas Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan affirmed that his government is determined on “crushing” anything that poses a threat to Turkey (AFP). France called for a meeting of the UN Security Council on 22 January, however, it did not result in a joint statement or a condemnation.
The Turkish-American contention was exacerbated further by Turkey’s demand for US forces to be withdrawn from Manbij (AFP) and the cessation of arms supplies to the SDF and YPG. The US side, which is allied with the SDF, introduced the idea of a thirty-kilometer-deep safe zone in Syrian territories that runs along Turkey’s border, however, Turkey refused the idea due to the “lack of trust” in Washington.
The Syrian regime, according to an official source in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, expressed “the Syrian Arab Republic’s strong condemnation of the brutal Turkish aggression against the city of Afrin, which is an integral part of Syrian territories,” and called on the international community to “condemn this aggression and take the necessary steps to stop it immediately.” (SANA)
The Russian position toward the Turkish intervention was conservative and focused on the importance of preserving the integrity of Syrian territories, while encouraging the self-administration to coordinate with the Syrian government. Russia repositioned its military police in Afrin away from confrontation areas.
As for the Syrian opposition, the National Coalition announced its support for Operation Olive Branch in a statement circulated one day after its launch, in order to rid Afrin of the YPG. Numerous armed factions have also stated their support for the attack and participated in it directly from both Syrian and Turkish territories.
Initial Losses … Permanent Scars
Afrin has enjoyed relative stability since 2012. Many of the displaced have settled there, due to its booming economic activities as a result of its resources and location among several unstable areas. The city’s economy also flourished after battles erupted between Hayat Tahir al-Sham and other factions in Idlib city and countryside last July. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham seized control over Idlib, which prompted Turkey to close the Bab al-Hawa border crossing. The commercial route was then switched to the Bab al-Salamah border crossing north of Aleppo. Convoys carrying oil, building materials, and other basic goods started to enter the crossing towards the western countryside of Aleppo and Idlib governorate, passing through Afrin.
However, after the launch of Operation Olive Branch, this commercial route was halted, negatively affecting Afrin, opposition areas in Idlib city and countryside, and Hama countryside (Inab Baladi). According to SANA, the Turkish assault resulted in the death of eighty-six civilians and left another two hundred injured in just one week, in addition to the displacement of thousands of civilians from their homes and villages, and major destruction in homes, infrastructure, and historical ruins (SANA). The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the confrontations have left more than one hundred and ten dead in the ranks of Syrian fighters allied with Turkey and the YPG since last Saturday, as well as the death of thirty-eight civilians, most of whom died as a result of Turkish bombardment. The Turkish army said that “at least three hundred and ninety-four terrorists were neutralized” in the operation, whereas two Turkish soldiers were killed on Tuesday, raising the number of Turkish soldiers who have been killed since the start of the operation to five, in addition to forty injured soldiers. (AFP)
The danger in the Afrin battle is that it strengthens all elements for the continuation of the conflict in Syria as a result of the direct participation of the Turkish army in the fighting and the bombardment of an area that was considered to be stable, with all the destruction, killing, and animosity that a military intervention carries. The battle deepened divisions between Syrians, as opposition factions have headed to fight Syrians in Afrin. This was used by some parties to politicize identity, taking advantage of Syrian, Kurd, and Arab nationalisms, and to justify violence against the other. The battle also constitutes a new form of war economy through providing direct incentives for some groups such as weapons and financial support, or indirect incentives by allowing the seizure of property and the control of new routes for smuggling; in addition to the negative incentives such as blockades, displacement, and deprivation of the most basic elements of life.
Vienna … A Meeting in Lost Time
26-27 January 2018
Syrian peace talks were concluded on Friday in Vienna without any progress in solving the seven-year-old crisis. The Syrian opposition received a Russian commitment to a ceasefire in the besieged eastern Ghouta, near Damascus, starting at midnight Friday. However, the deal did not hold up.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that the bombardment of eastern Ghouta, which is controlled by the opposition, continued early Saturday after a spokesperson for the opposition had announced late Friday that Russia pledged to seek a ceasefire. (Reuters)
A group of five countries (United States, Britain, France, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia), also called “the small group”, presented a paper supporting a political solution in Syria on Thursday 25 January. The paper included proposals regarding the constitution, elections, presidential and governmental powers, and the status of security apparatuses, according to Resolution 2254. The paper focused on limiting the president’s powers in the amended constitution, while expanding the powers of the prime minister and giving powers to “provincial governments”. The paper also focused on the importance of including all Syrians at home and abroad in the new electoral law. It stressed the importance of reforming the security apparatuses and subjecting them to civil authorities to ensure accountability (Al-Jazeera). The delegation of the Syrian government to Vienna rejected the non-official paper altogether.
Sochi … Dialogue without the Opposition
28 January 2018
Middle East
Secretary General of the UN Antonio Guterres has decided to ask Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura to attend the Syrian National Dialogue Conference in Sochi on 29 and 30 January, despite the lack of progress in the Vienna negotiations and the Syrian Negotiation Committee’s declaration that it will boycott the conference. Major Kurdish forces have also declared that they will not participate in the conference.
According to the Middle East newspaper, the conference will focus on two documents: the final statement that includes the acknowledgement of the twelve principles set by the Special Envoy which were developed according to a draft prepared by the consultant of the Special Envoy Vitaly Naumkin, and an appeal to the Syrian people; in addition to the formation of three committees: the Sochi Conference Committee, the Constitution Committee, and the Elections Committee.
The conference has sparked wide controversy since its announcement. Most opposition forces fear that it will be a substitute for the Geneva talks and that Russian supervision over the preparation and invitations will be used as leverage by the regime to exclude the opposition’s demands, including commitment to political transition according to Security Council Resolution 2254.
United States in Raqqa … Stability without Reconstruction
22 January 2018
The Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) said after a visit to Raqqa that the civil mission was not to rebuild but to help civilians return home by clearing roadside bombs, lifting the rubble, restoring electric power, and fixing water pipes. He added: “The mission for us is stabilization not reconstruction… Our part of it is restoring essential services and there is a lot of work to do.” He said that he would be heading to Europe in the coming days to press allies to help in stabilization efforts.
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | يناير 23, 2018 | Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Afrin and Abu al-Duhur?
18-19 January 2018
Turkey launched a military operation in the predominately Kurdish region of Afrin, which is controlled by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). The Russian army has also set up a military base in this region.
The YPG said that the bombardment began with villages in the area. Turkey had escalated its statements regarding a military campaign in Afrin, which was accompanied by mobilization of Turkish troops on the Syrian border. Turkey also dispatched its Chief of Staff to Russia to obtain Russian approval for an air campaign on Afrin, as Russian observers are present there. The Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister threatened to destroy Turkish air jets that enter Syrian airspace. (Reuters)
Officials stated that Moscow did not give permission for Turkish air jets to support factions of the Free Syrian Army. However, Turkey provided artillery support, as it did in the Euphrates Shield operation it launched in northern Aleppo.
The complexity of the issue lies in the Kurdish alliance with the United States. The relationship between Ankara and Washington has witnessed tensions as a result of this alliance after the American administration’s assurances failed to convince Turkey that it had no intention of forming a ‘Kurdish army’ in the area. On Thursday, the State Department called on Turkey to refrain from any military action in Afrin and to continue to focus on fighting ISIS. (Reuters)
It is worth mentioning that the Afrin operation coincided with the regime’s control over Abu al-Duhur Airport in Idlib. Does this resemble the Euphrates Shield Operation with the coinciding of the regime’s forces’ control over east Aleppo and the advance of factions backed by Turkey?
American Troops Will Stay in Syria To Achieve Five Objectives
17 January 2018
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson announced that US troops will remain in Syria long after ISIS has been defeated to achieve five objectives: prevent the return of ISIS, terminate Iranian influence, push for a political solution, allow for the return of Syrian refugees and displaced people, and prevent the use of chemical weapons.
Damascus replied to Tillerson’s declaration by stating that leaving US troops in Syria indefinitely is a crucial part of Washington’s strategy in the country. The Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that American military presence is “illegitimate and constitutes a breach of international law and an aggression on national sovereignty,” it also added that this presence “aims to protect ISIS, which was created by the (previous president) Barack Obama administration.” (Al-Hayat)
The Obama administration was caught in a controversy before its decision to withdraw from Iraq. The US strategy does not appear to be clear with the Trump administration, given conflicting statements regarding the relationship with Russia and the United States’ role in the region.
Vienna … and Sochi
19 January 2018
The High Negotiations Committee (HNC) of the Syrian opposition announced its approval for participating in the next round of meetings in Vienna on the twenty-fifth and twenty-sixth of this month. Damascus also announced its intent to dispatch the government delegation to the negotiations, which were moved from Geneva, Switzerland, to the United Nations headquarters in the Austrian capital of Vienna.
The HNC stated that its participation in the Vienna meetings comes within the framework of the Geneva political process sponsored by the United Nations. The Deputy of the UN Special Envoy Ramzi Ezzeldin Ramzi announced on Thursday, during his visit to Damascus, that the Syrian government will attend the talks sponsored by the United Nations in Vienna next week.
The two parties of the Syrian conflict are preparing to participate in the Vienna talks (instead of Geneva for logistical reasons) on the twenty-fifth and twenty-sixth of this month despite military developments in Idlib, Harasta, and Afrin. The eighth round of Geneva talks has concluded without making any progress.
Concurrently, Russia continued mobilization for the Sochi conference by announcing its intent to invite the permanent members of the UN Security Council to attend the conference as observers. It is also waiting for the Turkish reply regarding the list of guests that Moscow has arranged, so it can start sending invitations to various Syrian parties.
The Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Mikhail Bogdanov denied reports that the conference will be postponed and confirmed that it is still scheduled to be held on the twenty-ninth and thirtieth of this month. He announced that a Russian-Iranian-Turkish meeting of deputy foreign ministers will be held in Sochi on Saturday to deliberate preparations for the conference. (Al-Jazeera)
Syria at the Bottom of Countries… Freedom
18 January 2018
The Freedom in the World report issued by Freedom House stated that democracy is in crisis around the world amid an accelerating decline of democratic principles in America; and the decline of the rule of law, freedom of the press, and the ability of holding free and fair elections in seventy-one countries; on the other hand, only thirty-five countries saw improvements.
The report depicts Syria as a state “torn with civil war,” and notes the catastrophic situation of political rights and civil liberties since the onset of the conflict. In addition to Syria, the report mentioned the deteriorating situation of freedoms in the Middle East, and classified countries such as South Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates among the worst twenty countries in the world regarding freedom.
Administrative Reform and Surpassing the War!
13 January 2018
Since last year, the Syrian government has raised the issue of administrative reform as a strategy to develop government performance, use of information technology, investment in human resources, and combatting corruption. In this context, the British-Syrian Association held a conference in Damascus University called the National Project for Administrative Reform… Elements of Success for Post-war Syria. The conference discussed the goals of the National Project for Administrative Reform and the elements of its success, including resources, skills, the methods of acquiring and benefitting from them, the project’s role in improving the performance of financial and judicial institutions, the role of information technology in the project, the mechanisms for reforming administrative cadres, preserving and protecting the cultural identity of Syrian society, achieving social justice and equal opportunities, setting employment standards, and other issues that concern Syrian society and achieve integral development of all sectors. (SANA)
The Syrian government had proposed a similar approach, which focused on administrative reform, in the early 2000s with French support, to develop procedures in public institutions. However, the project was not meant to succeed at the time, when the country did not suffer from a fierce war with no solution in near sight or a political and military conflict, in addition to regional and international intervention with destructive economic and social implications, and the challenge of refugees and displaced people.
Decline in Number of Asylum Applications in Germany during 2017
16 January 2018
The number of refugees arriving in Germany declined to one hundred and eighty-six thousand in 2017 compared to two hundred and eighty thousand in 2016, according to official numbers made public on Tuesday; amid the controversy surrounding immigration policies that the next German government will adopt. Most of the newcomers seeking asylum last year were from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The German Chancellor Angela Merkel had adopted an open policy for receiving refugees since 2015, which stirred wide political controversy in Germany. (Al-Hayat)
It is worth mentioning that the number of refugees in Europe has declined dramatically after 2015, especially after the European-Turkish agreement to provide Turkey with assistance in exchange for stemming the flow of refugees.
A Group of Syrians Freeze to Death on Lebanese Borders
19 January 2018
The Lebanese National News Agency said that the civil defense, in collaboration with the army, have pulled the bodies of thirteen Syrians who died in the snow storm that affected Lebanon recently, while they were attempting to cross the borders between Lebanon and Syria illegally. The civil defense said that it completed this mission despite the “impossible circumstances” in which the operation was carried out. (BBC Arabic)
UN reports have pointed to the decline of Syrian refugees to less than one million, most of whom suffer from poverty and indebtedness. It is worth mentioning that the Lebanese government has stopped registering new Syrian refugees since 2015.
Privatization of Construction on the Local Level
15 January 2018
Decree number nineteen of 2016 provided governorates and municipalities with the ability to establish private holding companies that can invest the governorate/municipality’s properties and rights in allocating lands, whether directly or through contracts with private or public companies. This can be carried out without resorting to the binding contract procedures that the public sector must adhere to. Damascus Cham Holding Company represents the first fruit of this decree, which constitutes a privatization process without sufficient guarantees or supervision from public bodies.
Marota City, expected to be built in the orchards of Mazzeh neighborhood in Damascus, is a project that has attracted many private-sector investors. The last of which was a contract signed with Talas Company for Trade and Industry to invest four plots in Marota City with a value of twenty-three billion Syrian pounds.
The plots dedicated for Talas Company are around one thousand square meters. The company will carry out the construction and the finishing. The investments are varied between tourism, commerce, technology, and services. Damascus Cham Holding’s share is seventy-five percent in exchange for its in-kind contribution, whereas Talas’s share is twenty-five percent for its cash contribution.
The aforementioned partnership contract comes after Damascus Cham Holding signed a contract with Syrian businessman Mazen Tarazy to invest in a mall with a value of one hundred and eight billion Syrian pounds. Damascus Cham Holding also announced that it signed a partnership contract with Damascus Aman Holding, a private joint stock company, on 27 August with a value of one hundred and fifty billion Syrian pounds to invest in three residential buildings and five plots in Marota City. (al-Iqtisade, Inab Baladi)
Permanent Office for the General Union of Arab Writers Holds Its Periodic Meeting in Damascus
13–15 January 2018
Despite the tragic Syrian situation, raging war, devastation of cities, and rupture in society, Damascus hosted the periodic meeting for the permanent office of the General Union of Arab Writers in Umaya Hall at Cham Hotel.
The participating delegations included researchers and poets representing Arab literary unions, associations, and families who came to present their intellectual and creative works during the meeting which occurred from 13 to 15 January.
In his speech, the Secretary General of the Arab Writers Union Habib al-Sayegh deviated attention away from the current situation using rhetoric well-known inside Syria, calling on the attending writers to adopt the slogan “A word for Palestine, all of Palestine”.
Syrian newspaper Al-Thawra mentioned in its issue of 19 January 2018 that Arab writers and scholars affirmed that choosing Damascus to hold the meeting of the General Union of Arab Writers proves that the body of Arab writers has started to recover and restore the culture of resistance. The Mufti of Syria also said that this meeting is for all Arabs and a sign that the gloom has disappeared, adding that Syria will go back to its leading role to lead Arabs and restore their dignity.
The Association of Syrian Writers circulated an open petition on social media and its website to condemn the meeting of the General Union of Arab Writers in Damascus as an unprecedented disgrace. The petition was signed by a great number of Arab writers in various Arab countries and abroad.
