Syria in a Week (20 August 2018)

Syria in a Week (20 August 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

Potential Crisis in Idlib

Enab Baladi

During her meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angel Merkel called for avoiding a humanitarian crisis in northern Syria. “Avoiding a humanitarian crisis in Idlib, Syria and surrounding areas is a crucial matter,” AFP reported Merkel as saying during the meeting with Putin in Berlin on Saturday, 18 August. Merkel stressed that both Germany and Russia bear the responsibility of finding a solution to stop the fighting in Syria. She said that she discussed the issues of constitutional reforms and potential elections with Putin in their previous meeting in Sochi last May. On his part, Putin reiterated his call for EU countries to support reconstruction projects in Syria, citing millions of refugees distributed in EU countries, Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey, and stressed the need for them to go back to their country. (Enab Baladi)

There are many reports indicating that the battle for Idlib will take place soon. The Operation Room for the Southern Countryside of Aleppo (ORSCA) declared several villages in the southern countryside of Aleppo as a “military zone” and asked residents to evacuate. In a statement on Thursday, 16 August, ORSCA said the zone included villages near or on the frontlines with the Syrian government; they include: Jazraya, Zammar, al-Othmanieh, Jdaidet Talafeh, Hweir al-I’eis, Tal Bajer, Baness, and Birneh. The statement called on residents to evacuate the aforementioned villages and take all necessary measures within forty-eight hours for the “sake of their lives.” (Enab Baladi)

 

United States is Financing Stability Through Allies

17 August 2018

Reuters

US President Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to cut down on foreign aid, including that allocated to reinforcing stability in areas no longer under ISIS control. On the other hand, the US is encouraging allies to increase financing for reinforcing stability. On Friday, the US administration said that it has secured three hundred million dollars from its partners in the coalition, which would be used towards stabilizing the country, including one hundred million dollars pledged by Saudi Arabia. The Emirates also pledged to offer fifty million dollars in new funding. Australia, Denmark, the European Union, Taiwan, Kuwait, Germany, and France all also pledged to offer money.

Senior Advisor to Secretary of State David Satterfield said that there will be no international funding for the reconstruction of Syria until a “credible and irreversible” political process starts to end the Syrian conflict. “There will be no aid for Syria through international agreement unless the UN confirms that a credible and irreversible political process has started.” (Reuters)

 

Russia and Returning the Refugees

14 & 17 August 2018

Reuters

Due to Russia’s interest in the issue of returning Syrian refugees, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday that the West’s position on Syrian refugees surprised Moscow and that the conditions were suitable for the refugees to return to their homes. Lavrov spoke after holding talks with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. In a related context, Russian news agency TASS reported the ministry of defense as saying that Minister Sergey Shoygu discussed the issue of the return of Syrian refugees to their country with his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar during their talks in Moscow on Friday. (Reuters)

On Monday, Russian foreign ministry said that a four-way summit between the leaders of Russia, France, Turkey, and Germany is “scheduled for the near future.”

 

De Mistura and Reconstruction

16 August 2018

Enab Baladi

UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan De Mistura affirmed the need to prioritize a political solution over reconstruction projects in Syria during his meeting with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.  De Mistura and Pompeo discussed the need to find a political solution in Syria for all sides and to avoid a humanitarian crisis in Idlib, State of Department Spokeswoman Heather Nauert said on Thursday, 16 August. The two sides agreed that any discussion of reconstruction in Syria is “premature,” alluding to the need to work on the political solution process and conduct free and fair elections according to UN Security Council resolutions before exercising pressure to return refugees to their county. Pompeo said that the return of refugees to Syria must be safe and under the umbrella of the UN. De Mistura and Pompeo discussed the progress achieved through the constitutional committee after the opposition and the government named their delegates to the committee. (Enab Baladi)

 

Iraq Bombs ISIS in Syria

16 August 2018

Reuters

Iraqi planes bombed a gathering of ISIS fighters inside Syria who were planning cross-border attacks border that left a number of ISIS fighters dead, according to a statement from the Iraqi army on Thursday. The planes targeted an “operation room” where ISIS members were meeting. ISIS, which once occupied a third of Iraqi territory, has been largely defeated in Iraq, however, it still poses a threat along its border with Syria. “According to intelligence, those terrorists who were killed were planning criminal operations using suicide vests and intended to target innocents in the next few days inside Iraq,” the military said in a statement. (Reuters)

 

Kurds in Negotiations

14 August 2018

Reuters

On Tuesday, Head of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) Riadh Darrar said that the SDC visited Damascus the previous week to hold another round of talks with the government. A delegation that includes member from the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls one quarter of Syrian territory, held talks in Damascus this month in the first public meeting. These visits highlight efforts by Kurdish-led authorities to open new channels with the Syrian government, as they seek to negotiate a political agreement that preserves their self-rule inside Syria. Darrar said that the SDC held new talks on decentralization and the constitution. The talks included a proposal from Damascus for the self-rule areas to participate in the local elections that will take place next month, Darrar added. He said that the SDC insists on keeping its structure of governance and self-rule in any future elections and that Syrian officials proposed several matters that are still immature. “We need to agree on service provision first and this could build trust between us.” (Reuters)

 

Iran Continuing with Its Policies

13 & 15 August 2018

Reuters and Enab Baladi

Iran will not rein in its influence in the Middle East despite mounting US pressure on Tehran to curb its regional activities, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told Qatar’s al-Jazeera television channel. (Reuters)

Iran’s policy in Syria has economic, political, and military aspects. The Ministry of Housing and Public Works in the Syrian government has made deals with Iranian companies on building residential units, including housing projects. An Iranian economic delegation reached an agreement with the ministry of housing on building thirty thousand residential units as part of the General Establishment for Housing’s project, the Iranian news agency IRNA said on Wednesday, 15 August. According to the agreement, the projects will be in Damascus, Aleppo, and Homs and the Iranian private sector will be responsible for the construction works. The two sides agreed on forming a team of Iranian contractors to supervise the work of the Syrian construction sector, according to IRNA, which also said that the Syrian Housing Minister Houssain Arnous promised the Iranian companies to provide necessary conveniences. (Enab Baladi)

 

Syria Exporting Electricity

13 August 2018

Enab Baladi

Lebanese Finance Minister Ali Hasan Khalil announced his approval to draw electric energy from Syria on 13 August. He said that “Syria offered to give electric energy to Lebanon in reasonable prices. There was a Syrian delegation headed by the minister of energy two weeks ago. They gave us a proposal that is less than the ships or even the power plants, with the possibility of up to three hundred and fifty megawatts.” This announcement comes after the huge losses that the electricity sector in Syria suffered and the immense need for electrical power in the near future. (Enab Baladi)

 

 

Syria in a Week (30 July 2018)

Syria in a Week (30 July 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

Idlib in the Eye of the Storm

26-29 July 2018

After the seizure by the government forces of the southern part of the country, focus shifted to Idlib where two and a half million people live, half of which are displaced people, in addition to forty to fifty thousand militants including extremist elements. Opposition factions formed a new army to confront government forces heading towards Idlib governorate, a source in the opposition said.

“Opposition factions have unified, most importantly the Syrian Liberation Front, Levant Liberation Committee (Tahrir al-Sham), the National Front, Islam Army (Jaish al-Islam), and the Free Idlib Army within a new army called the Conquest Army (Jaish al-Fat’h) and with more than seventy-five thousand fighters to confront government forces that have started to mobilize towards the area from the southern and western countryside of Aleppo, the western countryside of Idlib, and the countryside of Lattakia. Each front has been given its assignment,” said the source.

The source expected military operations to begin at the end of August, after the exit of the residents of Kfraya and al-Fou’a from the countryside of Idlib. Government forces started to send major military reinforcements to the north and west of Syria.

On the other hand, the Head of the Syrian Negotiating Committee Nars Harir ruled out a battle in Idlib governorate because it “would not be easy,” based on Turkish “guarantees” to prevent this battle, which the government and its allies are pushing for.

The government’s current priority is to retake control of Idlib governorate in northwestern Syria, said Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in an interview with Russian media published on Thursday. “Our objective now is Idlib, although it is not the only objective,” said al-Assad. “There are territories in eastern Syria that are under the control of different groups. Therefore, we will advance towards these areas, and military officers will set the priorities. Idlib is one of these priorities,” he said.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that his country is planning to host a summit regarding developments in Syria in September with Russian, French, and German participation. The future of Idlib will be on the table in the meeting of the sponsors of the Astana process (Russia, Iran, and Turkey) in Sochi on Monday and Tuesday.

 

A Bloody Day in Sweidaa

26 – 27 July 2018

The Druze-majority Sweidaa governorate laid to rest its citizens who were killed in attacks carried out by ISIS that left more than two hundred and fifty people dead in the biggest jihadist operation in this area since the onset of the conflict in Syria since 2011.

Government forces along with local militants were able to repel the jihadist offensive in Sweidaa city and villages in the northern and eastern countryside. The latest report by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said that two hundred and fifty-two people were killed, including one hundred and thirty-nine civilians, and the rest were pro-government fighters, the majority of which are “local residents who took up arms to defend their villages.”

The tally has gradually increased since Wednesday morning with the death of some of the injured and the discovery of new civilian bodies; the SOHR said that they “were executed inside their homes, in addition to the death of some people due to their injuries.”

ISIS began the attack on Wednesday morning with four suicide attacks in Sweidaa city that coincided with similar attacks in the countryside. It then launched an attack on villages and took control over some of them.

After several hours of bombardment and clashes, government forces were able to repel the offensive, according to the SOHR and official media.

Sixty-three ISIS militants, including seven suicide bombers, were killed in the attack and the subsequent bombardment and clashes, according to the SOHR.

On Thursday, the official Syrian television broadcasted live images from the funerals of those who died in Sweidaa countryside amid an atmosphere of sorrow and anger.

Coffins draped with the Syrian flag were placed at the center of a hall where hundreds of Druze sheiks and youth gathered.

Some young men carried portraits of the victims, which were also placed on top of each coffin. At least two men carrying machine guns were dancing, while others were clapping and chanting.

The International Committee for the Red Cross condemned the attacks on its Twitter account, saying “From Sweidaa… Bad news. Civilians are not targets.”

ISIS claimed responsibility for the attacks in two separate statements on Wednesday, saying that the “soldiers of the caliphate” carried them out in Sweidaa city and countryside.

“Elements from the terrorist ISIS organization committed a barbaric and ugly crime that left hundreds of martyrs and injured” in Sweidaa, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Mou’alem said on Thursday.

This is the biggest assault on the governorate, which has mostly stayed immune to the conflict. Government forces control all parts of the governorate, whereas the presence of ISIS militants is restricted to a desert area on its northeastern outskirts.

After being ousted from vast areas in Syria and neighboring Iraq, ISIS is still capable of carrying out bloody attacks starting off from pockets and desert areas.

Government forces expelled ISIS from neighborhoods in southern Damascus, while hundreds of militants were evacuated from Yarmouk camp and surrounding neighborhoods to the Syrian desert that extends from central Syria all the way to the Iraqi border and includes parts in Sweidaa governorate.

Since being evacuated, jihadists have carried out attacks on government and pro-government positions in the desert and surrounding areas, according to the SOHR.

Local social media networks posted what they said were pictures of ISIS militants who were killed during the clashes on Wednesday. They reported that some of them had IDs indicating that they were from Yarmouk camp.

 

Return of the Flag to the Liberated Rubble

27 July 2018

Some three hundred Syrian soldiers and civilians held a symbolic celebration after the government regained control of Qonaitera city in the south and resulted in the departure of opposition fighters.

The city of Qonaitera, which is semi-deserted and devastated after Arab-Israeli wars in the 1960s and 1970s, is located in the demilitarized zone near the part of the Golan Heights that Israel occupies.

Opposition factions and Tahrir al-Sham (previously Nusra) took control of the city after the onset of the conflict in Syria in 2011.

Government forces have almost full control of the borderline with the occupied Golan Heights, after taking back most of Qonaitera governorate in a military operation that was followed by a settlement agreement brokered by Russia with factions stationed there, which resulted in the departure of hundreds of militants and civilians to northern Syria last week.

To “celebrate” this victory, three hundred people, including soldiers, civilians, and militants who agreed to hand over their weapons, gathered in the city and held a symbolic ceremony, raising the Syrian flag in the square.

A portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was placed on a destroyed memorial at the Tahrir Square, according to the AFP’s reporter who took part in a government-supervised tour.

 

Controversy over the Terms of Reconstruction

28 July 2018

On Friday, Russia urged global powers to help Syria revive its economy and bring back refugees, while its ally Damascus continues its campaign to restore territories it lost control over in the conflict that has been ongoing since 2011.

Russian Deputy Ambassador Dmitry Polyansky to the UN called for an end to unilateral sanctions against Syria, saying that countries should not link aid to their demands of political change to Bashar al-Assad’s government.

“Reviving the Syrian economy” constitutes “a crucial challenge”, with Syria suffering from severe shortage in construction material, heavy equipment, and fuel to rebuild areas totally devastated during the battles, said Polyansky to the UN Security Council.

“It would be wise for all international partners to join assistance in Syrian recovery efforts, to eschew artificial linkages to political momentum,” he said.

France, however, clearly said that there will be no reconstruction aid for Syria unless Assad agrees to a political transition that includes a new constitution and elections.

French Ambassador Francois Delattre told the council that Assad was scoring “victories without peace” and that political talks were needed for a final settlement.

“We will not take part in the rebuilding of Syria unless a political transition is effectively carried out with constitutional and electoral processes” conducted “in a sincere and meaningful way,” said Delattre.

A political transition is an “indispensable” condition for stability, he said, adding that without stability, “no reason can justify France and the European Union’s financing of reconstruction efforts.”

This month Russia presented proposals for the return of Syrian refugees from Jordan, Turkey, Lebanon, and Egypt that would involve international financial support.

 

A Kurdish-Baathist Roadmap

28 July 2018

On Saturday, the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the political wing of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), announced after a meeting with representatives from Damascus the formation of bilateral committees to advance negotiations in order to develop a roadmap that would lead to decentralized rule in the country.

These are considered the first formal public talks between the SDC and Damascus to discuss the future of the self-administered areas in northern Syria. This step comes after the government regained control of vast areas in the country it had lost since the onset of the ongoing conflict in 2011.

The SDC’s visit to Damascus, which started on Thursday, came after an invitation from the Syrian government, according to a statement from the SDC posted on Facebook on Saturday.

The meeting held on Thursday resulted in “decisions to form committees at various levels to advance dialogue and negotiations to put an end to violence and war, which have exhausted the Syrian people and society on the one hand, and to place a roadmap that leads to a democratic and decentralized Syria,” according to the statement.

No official statement was issued from Damascus.

Throughout the seven year conflict, military confrontations on the ground between government forces and Kurdish fighters were a rare occurrence.

After decades of marginalization, Kurdish influence in Syria increased with the gradual retreat of government forces from their areas in 2012. They subsequently declared self-administration and then a federal system about two years ago in the Rogavav area (western Kurdistan).

The SDF, the backbone of which is the People’s Protection Units (YPG), controls around thirty percent of the country in northern Syria, making it the second dominant force on the ground after the Syrian army.

Damascus holds the Kurdish fighters’ alliance with Washington against them. The latter has provided air coverage for their military operations against ISIS through an international coalition and training, arms, and consultants on the ground.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad earlier gave the Kurds an option to solve matters either through negotiations or military decisiveness.

 

“Voluntary” Return

28 July 2018

On Saturday, the General Directorate for Security in Lebanon secured the voluntary return of seven hundred and twenty-two Syrian refugees from Shab’a in southern Lebanon and Middle Bokaa’ in eastern Lebanon through al-Masna’ border crossing east of Lebanon towards Syrian territory.

“As part of the follow-up to Syrian refugees wishing to voluntarily return to their towns, the General Directorate for Public security and in coordination with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has secured the voluntary return of seven hundred and twenty-two Syrian refugees from Shab’a and Middle Bokaa’ through al-Masna’ border crossing towards Syrian territory.”

The Director General for Public Security Major General Abbas Ibrahim said that the upcoming period will witness the return of hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees from Lebanon to Syria.

It is worth mentioning that the number of Syrian refugees in Lebanon is about one million and eight hundred and fifty thousand refugees. The General Directorate for Public Security has secured the return of hundreds of them in coordination with the UNHCR.

This comes after a visit by the Russian envoy Alexander Lavrentyev to Damascus, Beirut, and Amman to discuss the return of refugees from countries neighboring Syria.

 

Torture Lists

28 July 2018

The government’s disclosure of lists of detainees who died under torture “reveals the extent of war crimes and crimes against humanity inside government prisons,” said vice president of the Syrian National Coalition Badr Jamous. “Neither the UN nor the international commission of inquiry can condone this,” he added.

In recent days, the government handed over records of deceased people from different governorates who died under torture in various prisons. Human rights activists said that the lists included a thousand detainees from the city of Darya in Damascus countryside, seven hundred and fifty from Hasakeh, five hundred and fifty from Aleppo, four hundred and sixty from al-Mou’damieh, and thirty from Yabroud.

The goal from this disclosure is to “alleviate the crisis when orders to free detainees are given by Russia,” Jamous said. He added that the government killed tens of thousands of detainees, and revealing the matter all at once would be a great shock. “We are also fearful that the killing will go on in prisons to eliminate as many people as possible because of international silence,” he went on to say.

Jamous also said that disclosing these lists, withdrawing ID’s of the deceased, and issuing death certificates for them would help Damascus in confiscating property according to Law Number 10, which the government plans to use to carry out major demographic changes in the county.

Syria 2018: five key factors to watch

Syria 2018: five key factors to watch

“After a string of breakthroughs in 2016 and 2017, President Bashar al-Assad’s government now has the clear upper hand in Syria’s long war.

Out east, the so-called Islamic State has been crushed between the hammer and anvil of al-Assad’s army and a Kurdish-led group backed by the United States. A ceasefire between the army and the Kurds is now in place along the Euphrates River and, despite the much-ballyhooed de-escalation zones brokered by Moscow, violence has quickly drifted back west. In Idlib, renewed fighting has driven some 100,000 civilians on the run in the first weeksof 2018.

But if it seems like a government win is a foregone conclusion, there are still some developments that could throw the pro-Assad juggernaut off track. Plus, restored government control in Syria could take many forms. To help understand which way Syria’s war and peace might be headed, here are five key aspects to keep an eye on in 2018.

1. Iran

The street protests that shook Iran over the last weeks serve as a timely reminder of how important regional developments are to Syria’s future. The protests now seem to have petered out, but had the Iranian government been seriously weakened, the effects would soon have been felt in Syria.

There are other ways in which this key Damascus ally could get into trouble in 2018.

US President Donald Trump has long threatened to tear up the 2015 deal over Iran’s nuclear programme. On 12 January, he extended US compliance once more, but warned that this would be the last time, unless the terms are renegotiated. Deadlines will keep cropping up in 2018, the next one in April. Should the deal be allowed to lapse, it’s possible nothing much happens at all. But Iranian-American relations could fly off the rails, with unpredictable consequences for Syria.

Meanwhile, Israel has stepped up air strikes in Syria and is pushing to contain the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah in areas near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israel also keeps a wary eye on Lebanon, where the first parliamentary elections in nearly a decade will be held in May.

A new Hezbollah-Israel war seems unlikely, but they always do until they happen. If one were to erupt in 2018, Syria would likely be drawn into the fighting.

2. Signs of an underground insurgency

Syrian rebels have long said that if al-Assad wins on the battlefield, they will flip to guerrilla warfare and wage a campaign of bombings and assassinations.

So far, that’s mostly talk, and areas retaken by the army have remained more or less stable.

The main exception is Homs, where rebels have staged repeated attacks on Alawite neighbourhoods. Aleppo has also seen a handful of bombings after al-Assad took back the city’s eastern half in December 2016, and every now and then a bomb goes off in Damascus.

While this level of violence seems like something al-Assad could easily tolerate, the underground campaign may escalate.

After losing the war in the east, IS is returning to subversive tactics, and the Idlib-based extremists in Tahrir al-Sham may end up doing the same at some point. Although they have been powerful enough on the battlefield, it is as urban guerrillas that the jihadis’ brutal tradecraft really shines.

In 2018, therefore, it is worth monitoring the frequency of car bombings, assassinations, and suicide attacks in government-held cities. Take special note of atrocities calculated to spark a sectarian backlash in religiously mixed areas like Homs and Tartous – a tried and true tactic of IS.

3. The reconstruction-transition link

Seven years of war has left Syria in ruins. A quarter of the population has fled abroad, with 5.5 million registered refugees near Syria’s borders and another million in Europe. Major cities like RaqqaDeir Ezzor, and eastern Aleppo are in ruins, and 6.1 million internally displaced people are suffering in terrible conditions. The economy is in a shambles, with jobs and services hard to come by and salaries hollowed out by inflation. In all, 13.1 millionpeople depend on aid to get by.

Although several areas of the country remain outside state control, al-Assad’s government now wants to talk about reconstruction. In large part, this is a pitch for money and international legitimacy, but Syrian envoys also point to the humanitarian situation and appeal to their interlocutors’ self-interest: after a war, there’s money to be made.

For major reconstruction to take place, al-Assad will need wealthy Western and Gulf Arab nations to open if not their hearts, then at least their wallets. So far, there are few takers – these nations hate the Syrian president, having tried to overthrow him for seven years.

The United States is pushing its allies to continue the isolation of al-Assad until he agrees to a political transition, though it seems clear that he never will. The policy is more of a holding pattern than a genuine plan for regime change, and some Europeans seem unpersuaded. But so far, all have stuck to the script, and Russian diplomats’ attempts to badger Europe into paying are making no headway.

Full-scale reconstruction seems unlikely. But as time passes and UN transition talks continue to come up blank, more policymakers will likely start arguing that the very real leverage that Western states enjoy through aid financing should be deployed in more practical ways. Transition seems like a dead end, but something has to be done about the situation – and perhaps the regime could be more flexible on other issues?

Once that conclusion settles in, Europeans will find much to haggle over: intelligence cooperation, business deals, prisoner releases, chemical weapons monitoring, restored diplomatic relations, UN cross-border access, Syrian-Israeli ties, the Kurdish question, and refugee return, to name but a few.

Opposition to dealing with al-Assad is still strong, but, at some point, it may begin to fray. In 2018, watch for shifts in Western rhetoric linking reconstruction funding to transition.

4. New faces in the regime

Assuming that the Syrian leader now feels more secure, 2018 could be the year that he starts putting his house in order.

Though civilian ministers have come and gone with regularity, the regime’s inner security sanctum has seen few changes in the past seven years, except to fill in for those killed. The top brass is getting old, both figuratively and literally. Meanwhile, a new stratum of businessmen, paramilitary leaders, and wartime fixers has risen to positions of influence through the war economy, and the army is partly displaced by militias whose loyalty to al-Assad may be assured but whose discipline and respect for public order is not.

There are no signs of organised resistance to al-Assad’s overarching control among these groups, but the loyalist camp clearly brims with accumulated personal, commercial, and institutional tensions. This ultimately undermines the state and makes it harder to normalise the situation.

It is something the Syrian president will want to deal with at some point, in so far as he can, and it also ties back to the reconstruction question. If al-Assad wants to signal that Syria is past the threshold and that a new era is beginning, he’ll need to pour new blood into the system, putting forth fresh faces not overly tainted by the past seven years.

In 2018, keep your ears peeled for talk about military reorganisation, security and ministerial reshuffles, and the use of new laws or anti-corruption campaigns to perform targeted interventions in the war economy.

5. The Kurds

With the anti-Assad opposition now unviable or hijacked by extremists, foreign actors are shifting their bets to Syrian Kurdistan. Since 2017, the Kurdish question has arguably become the conflict’s central axis.

After helping Kurdish and allied Arab troops in the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) capture northeastern Syria from IS, US officials are now turning them into a 30,000-strong border security force. Its area of operations will be the Syrian-Iraqi and Syrian-Turkish national borders, but also the front line against al-Assad’s central government.

That’s a plan with no shortage of adversaries. Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Fesial Meqdad says it aims to “divide Syria;” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warns it could “split” the country.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is even more upset, accusing the US of building a “terror army” on his southern border. The Syrian Kurdish leadership is linked to Ankara’s domestic arch-enemy, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and US-Turkish relations have plummeted since Washington started supporting the Kurds in 2014.

Erdogan now threatens to invade Afrin, an isolated Kurdish enclave outside the protective umbrella extended by the US Air Force. Afrin does however host a symbolic contingent of Russian troops, which may or may not dissuade an attack – it is not yet clear what the Turks are planning.

All involved seem to be keeping their options open, dancing around the overt hostility between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds and trying to work with both sides.

The Americans are weighing their project in Kurdistan, which has come to represent their main source of leverage in Syria, against the damage to their relationship with Turkey, which is a major NATO ally. It is a difficult debate and the status quo may well win the day, leaving US troops in place as a holding force without any clear end goal.

Meanwhile, Moscow is trying to coax Erdogan into Damascus-friendly deals by dangling the Kurds in front of him, but Russian diplomats have also tried to interest al-Assad in some sort of federal construction that could leave the Kurds where they are and wind down the war.

The Syrian leader could either try that, or he could position himself as a counterweight to Kurdish ambitions, rallying Arab and perhaps even Turkish support for his claims on the northeast. Most likely, al-Assad will try to muddle through for now and wait for the Americans to pack up and leave.

The power games in northern Syria could take time to fully unfold. But in 2018, keep your eyes open for any clues on how US, Russian, and Syrian policymakers want to answer the Kurdish question and its Turkish corollary. What happens in Kurdistan could reshape Syria’s future, perhaps even its borders.

This work was supported in part by a research grant from The Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation.”

 

[This article was originally published by IRIN.]

Bassam Haddad Speaks on Syria’s Internal Wars and External Interventions on NPR’s Spectrum (With Transcript)

Bassam Haddad Speaks on Syria’s Internal Wars and External Interventions on NPR’s Spectrum (With Transcript)

This month the uprising in Syria will enter its eighth year. More than 400,000 have been killed and over one-third of the nation’s infrastructure has been destroyed, says Bassam Haddad. Half the population has been displaced from their homes and other countries have felt the glut of millions of Syrian refugees fleeing the fighting. What started as a revolt against dictatorship in 2011 has become a cauldron of regional and international intervention. In addition to the United States and Russia, Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Hizballah have been involved in supporting one side or the other. The “Islamic State,” ISIS, at one point controlled more than 40 percent of the country’s territories, Haddad notes. ISIS was finally routed from most of their strongholds by various military coalitions after fierce battles in Fall 2017.

At the eight-year mark of the struggle for Syria, reminiscent of similar goals decades prior, the country still faces internal political unrest, external interventions, battles between Turkey and the Kurds, and a massive task to rebuild the physical part of the country and infrastructure destroyed by war. The recent and ongoing incessant pummeling of Al-Ghouta suburb of Damascus by the Syrian regime and Russia speaks of more horror to come in terms of the Syrian regime’s plans for other parts of the country not under its control.

Haddad talks to Spectrum about all of these issues. He puts the conflicts into historical context from the beginning of the uprisings and discusses the current challenges facing Syria and Syrians. Haddad is a scholar, a teacher, an author, and a documentary film-maker. His second book is provisionally titled “Understanding the Syrian Tragedy: Regime, Opposition and Outsiders” to be published by Stanford University Press. He also has been the co-producer/director of the award-winning documentary film, “About Baghdad” and he also directed the acclaimed film, “Arabs and Terrorism.”

“Tom Hodson (TH):  Welcome to Spectrum. Spectrum features conversations with an eclectic group of people. Some are famous and some are not, but the common thread is that they all have captivating stories. Today we are talking with Dr. Bassam Haddad, the Director of Middle East and Islamic Studies Program at George Mason University. He is also part of the core faculty there in philosophy, politics, and economics. He also is working on his second book about Syria and its internal struggles. Dr. Haddad talked with us about the armed struggles in Syria, especially since the defeat of ISIS and the continuing struggles in this war torn country.

[Intro Music Ends]

Can you explain why the situation in Syria is so confusing to anybody outside?

Bassam Haddad (BH): First, thank you for having me. I am delighted to speak on this topic and I would like to address what you asked by saying something a little different. That is: if you are actually following the news on Syria and the more you follow the news on Syria, in fact, you actually become more confused. So if you are confused, I always say it is always, probably, because you are following the news. Those who do not follow probably have a sort of classical view of the situation where they understand that there is an uprising against dictatorship, which is exactly correct in terms of the basic narrative. It actually became much more than that. It might surprise people that the trajectory of the Syrian Uprising is actually one of the more cautionary trajectories of uprisings and revolutions. Not because the uprising was not legitimate, it was perfectly legitimate and kind of late, if you will, because of the forty-some odd years of dictatorship. But it is because of what happened to the uprising as a function of meddling of various regions and international players on both sides, who effectively hijacked the uprising and turned it into a proxy war that serves the interests of state and non-state actors that are supporting either of the sides. Of course the regime, on the one hand, and the opposition—or oppositions with an S—on the other hand. And of course, you have the third player in the boxing ring, which made things even more complicated, which is ISIS, a group that was not interested in a revolution against dictatorship and for the purposes of democracy, but interested in territorial gains across Syria and Iraq to erect its own version of a state called a Caliphate or an Islamic state.

TH: So once ISIS entered, and that was about 2013, is that about the time?

BH: It basically had a presence in Iraq. And then we basically have a number of developments where the Syrian border—the porous Syrian border—allowed the entry of what was called the Islamic State in Iraq into Syria with early potential alliances with Jabhat Al-Nusra, which is an Al-Qaeda affiliated group in Syria. That did not go very well. And then, of course, the Islamic State in Syria and Al-Sham, or ISIS, emerged out of this sort of experience between 2013 and 2014.

TH: And ISIS in Syria meant to take over territory. It was not just an ideological movement, it was actually a territorial movement.

BH: Absolutely, and this is what distinguishes ISIS from, say, Al-Qaeda. Given that ISIS actually had territorial aims, it wanted to establish a state of sorts with communities, with all the trappings of a state from a judiciary, to a bureaucracy, and so on and so forth, and of course an army. And it aimed to establish its state in both Syria and Iraq and, in fact, at some point, ISIS controlled about thirty percent of Iraq and close to forty-five percent of Syria. And we are talking here mostly about non-metropolitan cities because ISIS was better equipped to seize and control non-metropolitan cities as a function of the existence of more equipped armies in metropolitan cities, but also as a function of the social structure in more rural areas that was more susceptible to control by a group like ISIS with its own ideology and its own conservatism socially and otherwise.

TH: And Mosul became sort of a focal point of ISIS, correct?

BH:  And the only city that actually is a full-fledged metropolitan city in either of these two countries that ISIS was able to seize. And it actually seized it sort of in an odd way because there was really no battle in Mosul. They just almost walked in. And that was a function of the dissatisfaction that people in Mosul had with the government, on the one hand, and the lack of readiness of the troops or the official presence of the Iraqi government in Mosul. And ISIS was able to walk in without much of a battle. And that became, in 2014, the most significant territorial gain in terms of metropolitan areas for ISIS besides its, if you will, its wilaya or its statelet in Raqqa, in rural north Syria.

TH: So let us summarize to this point, and then we will go on. But we had the Assad Regime trying to stay in power against multiple intersections of rebels that were not necessarily consolidated in one force. Then we had ISIS coming in, disrupting that battle between those two entities, and interjecting a third entity into this conflict. Now ISIS, allegedly, has been pushed out. Were they pushed out by sort of a ceasefire or… how did ISIS get pushed out while the other two were still battling?

BH: Let me start from the beginning, perhaps, and that is always a thing when one talks about Syria; you get involved in more, so to speak, juicy or, if you will, exciting details and then you have to go back to the beginning. The narrative about Syria, of course, is always contested. There are no narratives on Syria that are not contested. What I would like to share with you are some of the basic narratives that are very difficult to contest, even by differing opinions—and they will still be contested to an extent.

So the most important thing I think we should recognize about the Syrian situation is that Syria has been ruled by a dictatorship since 1970 or 1963 depending on when you want to start the clock, but in all cases some four to five decades. And it does not mean that the pre-dictatorship era was rosy, it just means that we have a particular sort of dictatorship under a particular party that ruled since 1963 and then 1970 respectively when Assad Sr. took over.  This background, in my view, is the context within which everything happens. After forty years of dictatorship, we cannot expect an uprising of angels. We cannot expect allies of the dictatorship to actually be on the sidelines, they will actually intervene. We cannot expect that the opposition to this dictatorship is going to be supported also by, if you will, angelic state actors or non-state actors. So the situation from the very beginning has been set up to attract problematic allies, supporters, and as we have seen, foreign fighters with the case of ISIS and other groups. So we have a situation where a legitimate uprising emerged in Syria in 2011, very much instigated by the uprisings and somewhat successful quick results in Tunisia and Egypt. This uprising was civilian in character, it was peaceful.

However, those early days and weeks of the uprising, and in some cases months, were disrupted by a number of developments. The first development that disrupted this uprising against dictatorship which then, as I shared earlier, was transformed into some sort of a proxy war was the weaponization of the uprising, the militarization of the uprising. This changed the character of the situation and provided an already brutal regime that was content to crush even civilian protesters’ voices, was even more intent on doing so and went the extra mile with the justification that the uprising is not civil or civilian. And that began to change the character of the uprising and changed the conflict from an uprising against dictatorship to somewhat of a war with a significant number of people on the side of the uprising. Forming various groups that became quickly empowered, not just militarily, but also politically from the outside. And that created a war-like situation that gave a carte blanche, from the regime’s perspective, to crack down even more brutally on the protestors as well as, of course, the rebel armies. That transformed the context from an uprising against dictatorship to, as I shared, a proxy war in which various groups—on both sides—supporting both sides regionally, were trying to use this context of the Syrian Uprising to transform the region or to redraw the map of the region according to their own interests, each assuming that they will be victors. The tragedy of the Syrian situation is that there are no victors, especially several years down the line. There are only victims. And those victims, sadly, are the majority of the Syrian population that ended up being exhausted by what was going on on all sides. Not necessarily supporting the area or the leadership within which they live because territorially, they were confined to a particular area. And you root for where you are at, for the most part, unless you are able to flee or become a refugee like most Syrians. The idea here is that the exhaustion of the majority of Syrians made them step back, actually, from the conflict— not in a neutral way. I believe that the majority of Syrians—the overwhelming majority of Syrians—want a change in Syria, want a removal of this regime. What became more complex, and that is what a lot of people sometimes miss, is that the alternatives were becoming less and less desirable. It is not that the regime became more attractive, it is that the alternatives, given what was happening on the ground, the nature of the rebel force, was changed from a civilian military rebel force that wanted a more progressive alternative to a rebel force that actually was bent on formulas that did not necessarily meet the aspirations of the revolutionaries—the original revolutionaries in Syria. Within that context, various actors—state actors and non-state actors— locally, regionally, and internationally tried to take advantage of this mess to basically settle their own scores and to serve their own interests. Whether it was the pro-opposition camp represented by countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and the United States or whether it is the pro-regime camps represented by Iran, Russia, Hezbollah, and when it came to diplomatic relations, China. So we ended up producing a disillusionment among most Syrians as far as who to support—again not because the lack of clarity that the regime needs to go—but because the lack of certainty that this alternative on the ground is the way to go.

TH: And this uprising—this civil uprising—became an international conflict. And that internationalism made people wonder what interests were going to prevail and what countries were going to interfere, correct?

BH: Absolutely, and that is the tragedy we are actually encountering year after year and today. So if you want to look at the larger context, if we want to establish a bird’s-eye-view, we find that the Syrian Uprising that started in March 2013 has gone through a couple of phases and each of these phases include various stages. The first stage was, as I shared, a civilian uprising which was transformed into a militarized uprising and then into a proxy war. So these represent stages within the first phase that ended in December 2016 when the regime was able to seize the entire city of Aleppo from the rebels, which constituted the seizing of all major metropolitan cities by the regime—or retaking—whatever language one wants to use, because the regime did in fact control it beforehand, of course. The point here is that that ended, in my view, the war for Syria. In other words, those who wanted to remove the regime—for good or for ill in terms of their own intentions, whether they really cared about the Syrian people or not but wanted to remove the regime for one reason or another—that signaled the end of that goal, or the end of that objective because the regime was able to control most of what is called “Useful Syria” or “Syria Al-Mufida” by December 2016. The second phase is what started after this process, which is basically: we moved from a war over Syria to a number of smaller wars within Syria that really represent at least a couple of goals; either settling scores for certain countries such as Turkey with its war against the Kurds, or retaking what is left of Syria by the regime. These constitute the two major dynamics today in Syria, even though there are other dynamics at work. And what made those dynamics dominant, especially today in 2018, frankly, is the dramatic degradation of ISIS over the past year, which freed up most players who actually were together; even though they oppose each other on everything else they actually worked together as in, maybe I should not say work together but they actually all had a goal of degrading ISIS—

TH: That was a common enemy.

BH: That was a common enemy and they had a similar opposition. Even if, in my view, whether it is the United States, the Syrian Regime, the Iranians, the Russians, or the opposition—at least in some cases, there is some sort of a utility for leaving ISIS degraded, but not completely destroyed because that can be used as a card in various situations down the line. And this is a speculation, but there is enough reason to believe that there is not an intent to completely root out ISIS from the very small remaining parts of Syria. And that represents the second phase of the Syrian Uprising, whereby we no longer have a war to take over the central government of Syria, at least nothing extant and evident. And more smaller fragmented wars that represent the interests of various countries, in using Syria to settle scores or to actually prevent further development of a conflict or threat in the case of Turkey and the Kurds. Turkey’s invasion and incursion into Syria, happening today, in the city of Afrin in Syria is meant basically to dismantle and defeat the YPG, a Kurdish movement that is accused of being connected to the KPP, which is the Kurdish Workers Party, a separatist party with which the Turks have been at war for many years. And it accuses both of them, by association, of being terrorist groups. Turkey is trying to do this because it wants to secure its southern border and is now in conflict with other groups and actors that view this as a violation of sovereignty, including the Syrian regime, whose militias—or pro-regime militias—are now in this fight. So we have a very complex train in that regard and it is actually proceeding at very high losses of course on the side of the Kurds in Afrin, but also on the side of the Turks who were not able to push forth as fast as they wanted. The regime, on the other hand, is trying to retake various parts of Syria that have been lost to the rebels over the past several years. And we see the tragedy unfolding today in Eastern Damascus, in the Ghouta region, where the regime and the Russians are pummeling the region of some three hundred and eighty thousand people that have been besieged for years.  They claim in response to various rockets that are sent to Damascus and claims about the proliferation of terrorist groups inside. Of course all groups name terrorists as the enemy or the enemy becomes terroristic respective of the veracity. And that is one, or the first attempt right now, after Aleppo, to retake one of several major strategic areas. Ghouta has now suffered the deaths of about six hundred to seven hundred innocent—I mean mostly civilians, even though the regime claims they are mostly military personnel or militia fighters. And it seems that the next step in this campaign will be a hotbed of the rebel opposition that is controlled by Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham in the North, and that is the Idlib province, where it is said that Ghouta is basically either the training ground or the first step before getting into that region. Because this is the only major stronghold of the opposition that is well equipped in terms of military might. And then of course other parts of the country seem to be in the sights of the Syrian regime including the South—which is actually pretty much stable as a function of the lack of one military authority controlling that region, though it is actually a coalition and it is confined or bound by various treaties and agreements made with Syria, Jordan, and Israel as well in terms of what kinds of movements can happen there. And of course, then you have the big question which is the latent potential conflict between the Syrian regime and the Kurds—who have been frenemies, friends at certain points fighting similar enemies and they actually are in opposition structurally and ideologically. But they have not really entered into a full-fledged war. And one of the reasons has to do with economics, given that the Kurds control more than sixty-five percent of oil fields now in Syria.

TH: What you have described really helps us, I think, understand the regionalism here and the historical dynamics. It seems, though, to an outsider that the American foreign policy, as it relates to Syria, has been one that is in flux. It is confusing. It is fragmented. Is that a correct characterization?

BH: From the point of view of people living in the United States, like you and me, it might seem like there is hesitation. It might seem that there is a kind of confusion as to what to do about Syria. But in reality, the confusion is not all that much. The appearance of confusion actually is evident, yes, is palpable. But in reality, the United States under the Obama Administration—and interestingly under the Trump Administration—if you notice there has not been a dramatic change on actual policy in Syria. There has been rhetoric that spoke of difference, but in reality, states operate based on national interests, usually, that are rather stable. And the single most important point for the US administration has always been that the prize in Syria is not that high, on the one hand. So we are not looking at a conflict where the returns or the rewards are evident and the costs can be minimized. That is a central component of the US position on Syria. Another component, of course, has to do with the extent to which the US public and, of course, the US military and US government is willing to go into a full-fledged war generally. And that has, of course, been precipitated by the problems that took place in Iraq—and of course when we talk about our problems we are, in a way, not recognizing the catastrophe that befell Iraqis themselves—but what the United States went through in Iraq has actually tempered our appetite for war. Whether it was in Syria in 2005 when some were calling for striking Syria or the ongoing appetite for war with Iran where there is—there always will be calls—but, you know, the administration—even this administration, with its very blunt rhetoric, is actually treading very carefully on the question of war. So this second issue of appetite for war in the region or full-fledged war is also not high. The third is a factor that allows us to understand US foreign policy over and above the zig-zagging of rhetoric is the combination of the two in recognizing the context in Syria. The simple fact is, and that is part of the reason why the uprising was not successful, is that all the supporters—if not most of the supporters—of the Syrian Uprising, the uprising for democracy, are for the most part not genuine supporters of an uprising for democracy. If anything, they were betting on removing the regime for purposes that served their interests. The coincidence of wanting to remove dictatorship with the aspirations of the overwhelming majority of Syrians created an alliance that was very fragile, between the uprising, if you will, and external forces. However, what the US administration—the previous administration— recognized is that this fight, this conflict, for the regime and its allies is an existential conflict. Whereas for the supporters of the uprising, it is a strategic conflict in which they could actually withdraw at any moment when the threat and the danger becomes higher than a particular threshold, which is exactly what happened in the case of Qatar and Saudi Arabia who recently were actually arguing amongst each other who messed up in dealing with Syria and the Syrian rebels; who weaponized which groups and radicalized the situation in Syria or the uprising.

TH: It became a point of conflict between those two.

BH: Absolutely. And they both withdrew their, you know, ample support to a large extent, not completely. Turkey no longer was willing to make its border open and porous to incoming fighters from which many thousands of fighters came to fight “the good fight” and got into its own trouble with the islamists or with ISIS who began to blow things up in Turkey. And Turkey therefore hit the brakes on its rhetoric against the Syrian regime and its facilitation of various forces fighting the regime—state or non-state actors, as well as individual foreign fighters. And of course it became more, as you shared, involved with the Kurdish situation. And the United States, of course, has no stake compared to, for instance: Iran, Hezbollah, and the Russians who actually went in full force and did what the United States was not necessarily willing to do in terms of going all-out vis-à-vis ISIS, even though the Russians also did this as a cover to help the regime root out the remaining rebels in the name of fighting terrorist, not distinguishing between groups that they do not like that are against the regime and groups that they do not like like ISIS—

TH: Whether you are ISIS or a rebel, either one, you are an enemy of the state so you are the same—

BH: And there was some sort of manipulation on the part of the Russians whereby they grouped these movements together like Jabhat Al-Nusra that was mostly Syrian and fighting the regime, as opposed to ISIS that is significantly non-Syrian and not interested in revolution in Syria; more interested in its territorial control in Iraq and Syria, and creating a state of its own that goes against, almost literally, most of what the rebels want, even the fighting rebels. So in a way, the US readiness for anything from establishing a no-fly zone to committing to significant troops on the ground—because obviously there are some troops on the ground— was extremely low within the Obama Administration for those three reasons I mentioned and continue to be low under Trump with the one exception, and that is: should there be an event that might spin things out of control in Syria? The Trump administration will be more likely to respond in ways that, perhaps, the Obama administration would not.

TH: If we look at the country, at least from the news clippings that we see and from the newscasts that we see, Syria is destroyed. The infrastructures, the buildings, there is widespread damage, at least in some of the cities and some of the areas where they were fighting. How will that be rebuilt? And who will help pay the bill to have it rebuilt?

BH: I recently gave a talk at both UCLA and George Mason University precisely about this question. The question of reconstruction, rebuilding, reconciliation, potential peace. And the unfortunate fact is that the problem in Syria—as opposed to what many believe, especially in the international community who are looking for lucrative entry points into Syria—the unfortunate fact is that the problem in Syria is not one of destruction. I mean that is a component of the problem, but it is wrapped up in profound political rivalries, decades of repression, and various other factors that make the resolution not simply one of reconstruction. The destruction is evident. Besides the more than four hundred thousand Syrians killed, we have, of course, more than a million injured severely, we have hundreds of thousands of disabled Syrians, and we have the destruction of at least a third of the infrastructure, and the destruction of various institutions of learning, various healthcare centers and hospitals—thanks to the purposeful regime bombing and Russian bombing for the most part—and for the most part in rebel held areas. We have more than half the Syrian population—a population of about twenty-four million—displaced. Some, about half or a little bit less than half, displaced from Syria to other countries including Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan, and various other countries like Egypt, Europe, and so on. And then the rest are internally displaced. We also have a considerable amount of damage that is not concrete and tangible, that a lot of people do not talk about, and that is a very destructive development in Syria. The trauma that has affected all Syrians. The psychological issues that—you know, we talk here about our own tragedies, our small tragedies like the high school shootings. And you can imagine the trauma of some of these people who did not even witness firsthand what happened. And we get concerned about them, we put their pictures on CNN, and we talk to these people who are traumatized by just being in the territory of the school when this happened. So you can imagine after seven years of death and destruction the extent of the trauma in Syria. And then there are developmental consequences. For seven years, many people did not have the proper education in a country that is used to actually having almost full literacy. So we have seven years blacked out from the lives of many people—not all, because schools continue to operate here and there in various places. The working force, imagine the extent to which Syria lost a workforce with skills who are now actually doing a good job in places like Germany and elsewhere in terms of being able to use their skills. So Syria now is bereft of all sorts of dignity and resources. So we have a damage that is profound. The rebuilding, however, cannot continue or even start properly without some form of establishing not peace, even, but territorial integrity. There are at least four major semi-sovereign or sovereign divisions in Syria. The regime which has the largest portion now, the Kurds who have the second largest portion in most of northern and northeast Syria, and then of course the opposition who have some strongholds in the North in Idlib and around Damascus and some in the South, and then, of course, ISIS which is mostly in eastern Syria in smaller patches of land and they are now trying to, if you will, close their businesses and smuggle out weapons, people, and money. Without having some sort of territorial integrity, the rebuilding is going to be fragmented and it will actually not serve the average Syrian. It is, in fact, starting in Syria—in the Syrian regime controlled territories—where they are actually engaged in heavy reconstruction. But this reconstruction does not seem to be aimed on the account of the best analysts and field researchers to actually serve those Syrians who lost their lives and their homes. It is actually reconstruction that is more aimed at propping up the state and basically providing housing for people who can afford this sort of housing. And it is tragic that most people who lost their houses and are displaced within and outside Syria will not be able actually to come back to those areas. If there is a plan to rebuild Syria, whether it is the World Bank or the IMF’s support; whether it is the Chinese, the Iranians, the Russians, the United States, and various international institutions like the UN and the UNDP and so on, the question is: who will they make these deals with? If it is the regime, then the rebuilding will happen according to the interest of the regime and its immediate partners, not according to the interest of most Syrians who have lost their lives and their homes. If it is others, well one worries how long these others will be in their place. The rebels, the Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham, for instance, in Northern Syria, who are not exactly admired by most Syrians… it is not exactly tenable. The Kurds, they have a very similar precarious future. Of course ISIS is not even a contender. So the best case scenario which is: the regime yields undesirable results and then you move on from there.

TH: You have a new book coming out shortly—the second book that you have written about this area.

BH: I cannot claim that I have written it completely, every time I try to finalize what needs to be part of this document, things develop—and not small things, either. So I tried from 2013 to finalize things, and then ISIS emerged, of course. I was both busy enough and lucky enough to not have finished it. So I am working now on—my first book was on the collusion between the regime and big business moguls in Syria. The collusion that actually led to the deterioration of the Syrian economy and to the dramatic social polarization in Syria which was the background to the uprising. My second book is the continuation of the story that starts with the first ten years of Bashar Al-Assad’s rule starting in 2000 that demonstrates the extent to which that rule drove discontent to a higher degree and set the stage in very tangible ways for an uprising that was long overdue to begin with. And it continues to address the dynamics of the Syrian Uprising by first looking at why is it that it is so complex, even more complex than the other uprisings around the same region, in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, and Bahrain. And looks at the pivotal role—the regional role—of Syria and how it is at the center of various conflicts simultaneously—local, regional, and international. And then goes on to address the transformation of the uprising to something that does not any longer resemble the original sentiments of the uprising and addresses the driving—or the drivers—for the prolongation of the uprising including what is called the “War Economy” from which all rebels benefit and from which all fighters benefit and all states benefit, which sort of explains to an extent why there is very little interest locally and regionally in ending the war—because that is an economy that has benefitted various players who are not really interested in revolution on all sides. And it addresses the dynamics of the uprising in the sense that it allows us to understand the formation, reformation, and breakdown of various coalitions and groups amongst the opposition. What explains this roller coaster of emergence and disappearance and breakdown of groups within the opposition. Instead of doing what a lot of think tank papers do or a lot of analysis does sometimes—or news—which is basically follow this or that group and how they emerged and how they coalesced and how they broke down, I tried to develop a framework to understand what governs these processes—the larger picture that governs these processes—so that we could link pre-2011 Syria with the dynamics of the uprising itself locally, in the interest of regional and international players that come together in basically providing the incentive structure for formation breakdown of these various coalition groups. And then it ends with this discussion of reconstruction. Basically, in my view it is a bit of a farce. At the same time that you cannot not reconstruct, right? So I am not critiquing the reconstruction for the purpose of rebuilding hospitals and schools and homes. What I am concerned about is that this has become an opportunity for capital gain. This has become an opportunity for increasing revenue of various actors. And this has become an opportunity to replenish state coffers in some ways and support various international allies and enemies by offering them a piece of the pie.

TH: And graft and corruption is along the way I am sure.

BH: That is a constant, unfortunately. And the bottom line is that after this tragedy of more than seven years soon—this month, actually—we will not be serving the Syrian people, even after everything that I just shared in terms of damage. The reconstruction might well not serve the majority of Syrians, but serve to prolong the life and security of the supposed victors.

TH: We thank you for helping us understand this very, very complicated area of the world, I appreciate it very much.

BH: Thank you for having me, I really appreciate your questions and this conversation.”

This is a transcript of an interview conducted in March 2018. This article is published jointly in partnership with Jadaliyya

[/fusion_text][/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]

هل تتجنب سوريا “وهم” إعمار العراق؟

هل تتجنب سوريا “وهم” إعمار العراق؟

إذا أردت أن تعرف ماذا يعني إعادة إعمار سوريا عليك أن تطّلع على حقيقة تجارب إعادة الإعمار  في العراق وأفغانستان وغيرهما من الدول التي مازالت تعاني من الحروب والأزمات التي تسببت بتدمير البنى التحتية واستنزاف الطاقات البشرية تحت آلة الحرب والتهجير القسري.

منذ ثلاثة أعوام بدأت سيمفونية إعادة إعمار سوريا تُعزف في الكثير من المؤتمرات الاقتصادية والمعارض، حينها أطلقت الحكومة السورية برنامج عملية إعادة الإعمار لتكون من ضمن أولوياتها. وبالطبع كان للقطاع الخاص دوره أيضاَ بالمشاركة في جوقة عزف سيمفونية “إعادة إعمار سوريا” حتى أن البعض منهم لم يكتف بالكلام بل ذهب إلى أبعد من ذلك وأقام المعارض والندوات وورشات عمل لبحث ومناقشة آلية كيفية إعادة إعمار سوريا.

رغم أهمية عقد هذه المؤتمرات والمعارض، لكن يبدو أن الأمر ليس أكثر من فقاعات إعلانية وإعلامية، حيث أن بعض المحللين يجدون أن الوقت مازال مبكراً للحديث عن إعادة الإعمار خاصة في ظل استمرار الصراعات والاختلافات الإقليمية بين الدول الكبرى التي لم تُخف عدم رغبتها في المشاركة في عملية إعادة الإعمار دون الوصول إلى حل سياسي بموافقة جميع الأطراف المتنازعة في سوريا. بناءً على هذه النقطة فإنّ بعض المحللين الاقتصاديين يجدون أنّ كلّ مايتم تسويقه والترويج له حول بدء عملية إعادة إعمار سوريا ليس أكثر من موسيقى تصويرية رومانسية على وقع مشهد مأساوي تتخلله مناظر القتل والتشريد والدمار.

من هنا نجد أن عملية إعادة إعمار سوريا ليست بالأمر السهل، ولن تتم بعصا سحرية خاصةً إذا ما نظرنا إلى تجارب الدول المجاورة مثل العراق والتي مازالت حتى اليوم تدفع ثمن “أكذوبة إعادة الإعمار”، نتيجة الفساد وسوء الإدارة واستمرار الصراعات والنزاعات. وبالتالي فإن إقحام سوريا بهذه السيمفونية يحتاج إلى الجدية بالطرح ولا يكفي أن يتم عقد مؤتمر هنا وإقامة معرض هناك في حين أنه على أرض الواقع لا يوجد فعل حقيقي لكل ما يتم طرحه والإعلان عنه من نتائج لهذه المعارض. وكمثال على ذلك نأخذ مدينة حلب “عاصمة الاقتصاد السوري” والتي مضى على تحريرها قرابة عام كامل منذ تاريخ 22/12/2016 ومع ذلك لم نسمع عن أي عملية لإعادة إعمار المناطق التي هُدمت بفعل الحرب، ولم يطرح حتى اللحظة أي مشروع استثماري خارجي أو داخلي للمشاركة أو البدء في إعادة إعمار حلب. لقد اقتصر الأمر على عودة الأهالي إلى الأحياء التي هُجروا منها، ودعوة الصناعيين لإعادة افتتاح ورشاتهم، حتى أن غالبية الصناعيين ممن أعادوا تشغيل منشآتهم المتضررة تحملوا كلفة هذه العودة على حسابهم الخاص. وقد اقتصر دور الحكومة السورية على تأمين التغذية الكهربائية والفيول (الوقود) للمصانع ضمن الإمكانيات المتاحة، في حين أنّ الكلفة الأكبر وقعت على عاتق الصناعيين.

تُمثل حلب مثالاً هاماً يكشف عدم جدية الذين يدعون للمشاركة بعملية إعادة الإعمار، وعدم وجود رؤية وسياسات اقتصادية واضحة للبدء بهذه العملية، خاصة وأن الاقتصاد السوري مازال يعاني من غياب لقانون الاستثمار الجديد والذي مازال قيد الدراسة ولم يتم طرحه حتى تاريخ اليوم. إضافةً إلى ذلك هناك توجس لدى العديد من المستثمرين من الدخول إلى السوق السورية في ظل القرارات الاقتصادية المتعلقة بالقطاع النقدي والتي أحدثت فوضى في سوق سعر الصرف. فقد أثارت القرارات الاقتصادية التي طالت القطاع الصناعي، والذي يعتبر عصب الحياة الاقتصادي في حلب، ردّات فعل سلبية من الصناعيين الذين هدّدوا بإيقاف معاملهم عن العمل في حال الاستمرار بمثل هذه السياسات الاقتصادية.

ربما يعترض أحدهم بالقول إنّ مضي عام كامل على “تحرير” حلب ليس مقياساً لمصداقية عملية إعادة الإعمار وبأنّ الأمر يحتاج لسنوات. هذا الكلام صحيح لكن من جانب آخر كان من الأجدر والأهم أن تقوم الحكومة السورية من خلال اللجان الاقتصادية التي شكلتها لتنفيذ عملية إعادة الإعمار بوضع قوانين اقتصادية واضحة لآلية إعادة الإعمار. فقد أشار العديد من المشاركين في معرض دمشق الدولي الأخير “باستثناء المشاركين من إيران و روسيا” إلى عدم وجود برنامج سياسي اقتصادي يوضح كيفية المشاركة في عملية إعادة الإعمار. ووجد عدة مشاركين صعوبة في عقد اتفاقية تخص عملية إعادة الإعمار، وكأن الأمر مقتصر على الدول الصديقة “طهران وموسكو.” ولايمكن نكران هذا الأمر خاصةً وأن العديد من المسؤولين والاقتصاديين السوريين أكدوا أن الأولوية في عملية إعادة الإعمار ستكون للدول الصديقة “روسيا وإيران.”

من جانب آخر تظهر الحقائق الرقمية بأن تكلفة إعادة الإعمار في سوريا ستتراوح بين 200 مليار دولار و350 مليار دولار، وهي كلفة تتجاوز إمكانيات سوريا بكل ما تملكه، كما تتجاوز قدرات حلفائها الإيرانيين والروس. فمن جانب إيران، تُعاني هذه الدولة من أزمةٍ اقتصاديةٍ راهنة، ورغم أنها قد بدأت تخرج من العقوبات الأميركية إلا أنّ احتياجاتها اللازمة لتنفيذ متطلبات البلد من ناحية البناء وإعادة الإعمار تُقدّر بما يقارب 100 تريليون دولار في السنة خلال أعوام 2015 و2025. حالياً ليس لدى إيران خيارٌ آخر سوى أن تُنفق أموالها لحماية عملتها الوطنية وميزانها التجاري خاصةً وأنّ عملتها قد انخفضت بشكلٍ حاد بعد انتخاب الرئيس الأمريكي دونالد ترامب ومازال حجم التضخم غير محدد من قبل محللين اقتصادية رغم اعتباره أحد المبادئ الاقتصادية العامة لبلد يسعى للتقدم اقتصادياً. كما أنّ حجم الإنفاق على الجيش بالغ الأهمية وكذلك الأمر بالنسبة لإعادة إعمار الاقتصاد والحفاظ على العملة والإنفاق والبطالة والاستثمار الذي يُعد من أولويات عمل الحكومة الايرانية.

كذلك الوضع الاقتصادي في روسيا ليس أفضل من غيره حيث تعتمد موسكو اقتصادياً على أسعار النفط والغاز بشكل كبير. وشكلت تدخلات روسيا العسكرية في سوريا وأوكرانيا عبئاً اقتصادياً على البلد. إضافةً لذلك مازالت الاتفاقات الاقتصادية بين موسكو وسوريا مقتصرة على التنقيب عن النفط، الأمر الذي يعكس بأن روسيا وإيران لا يمكن أن يكونا اللاعبين الوحيدين في عملية إعادة إعمار سوريا.

وبالتالي فإنه يتوجب طرح قوانين وخارطة اقتصادية استثمارية واضحة تتيح لبقية الدول إمكانية المشاركة في إعادة الإعمار خاصة وأن سوريا بلد متنوع يحتاج إعادة إعماره إلى وجود شركاء حقيقيين من دولٍ لديها إمكانيات اقتصادية كبيرة للمشاركة. أما اقتصار الأمر على الدول الحليفة “موسكو وطهران” فهو أمر أشبه بلجوء مريض إلى مريض، حتى أن دولاً مثل فنزويلا أو الإرجنتين لن تكون قادرة على المشاركة نتيجة ما تعانيه اقتصاداتها من أزمات وسوء إدارة.

في ذات السياق لا يمكن تجاهل العقوبات الاقتصادية المفروضة على سوريا والتي تتطلب من الاقتصاديين في سوريا البحث عن بدائل اقتصادية للتغلب على هذه العقوبات، وإلا ستبقى  عملية إعادة الاعمار سيمفونية يتم ترديدها في كل المحافل والمؤتمرات، مثلها مثل سيمفونية “أكذوبة إعادة إعمار العراق وأفغانستان.”