Syria in a Week (2 April 2018)

Syria in a Week (2 April 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

No Opposition in Ghouta

1 April 2018

Jaish al-Islam (Islam Army) and Russia have reached an agreement that provides for the evacuation of fighters and civilians who want to leave Douma, the last enclave under opposition control in the eastern Ghouta of Damascus, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) on Sunday.

The SOHR said that the agreement provided for “The exit of Jaish al-Islam fighters and their civilian families who want to leave for northern Syria, while Russian military police enter the city,” as a first step before “government institutions are reinstated.”

Negotiations, which have been going on for a while, focused on the destination of Jaish al-Islam, and concluded by agreeing on the latter’s exit towards areas controlled by factions allied to Turkey in the north-eastern countryside of Aleppo.

Government forces reinforced their deployment around Douma in conjunction with the negotiations and prepared themselves for military action in case an agreement with the Jaish al-Islam faction could not be reached.

Jaish al-Islam leaders had repeatedly refused any solution that included their evacuation to any other area. They were seeking to reach an agreement that allowed the opposition faction to stay in Douma with Russian military police entering it as well.

This final agreement comes after another agreement to evacuate hundreds of civilians from Douma, according to the SOHR, which added that they included “activists, doctors, and families from al-Rahman Corps faction,” which left eastern Ghouta last week.

Following an aggressive aerial offensive launched on 18 February, which was later accompanied by a ground operation, government forces gradually tightened their grip on opposition factions and divided Ghouta into three separate enclaves. After pressures mounted, these factions started unilateral and direct operations with Russia that resulted in evacuations from the enclaves in Harasta and south of Ghouta.

Evacuation of members of al-Rahman Corps and civilians from south of Ghouta ended on Saturday with the evacuation of more than forty thousand people.

 

Afrin Part of Turkey?

31 March 2018

“Afrin will become part of the Turkish city Hatai,” a spokesman for the Rescue Afrin Conference said on Saturday. The conference convened on 19 March and was attended by one hundred Kurdish, Arab, Alawite, and Yazidi personalities, resulting in the election of a council of thirty-five personalities, according to the Kurdish media network Rudaw.

“Among members of the council, there are twenty-four Kurds, eight Arabs, one Alawite, one Kurdish Yazidi, and one Turkman. It will begin work relating to the reconstruction of Afrin and conducting affairs of the city,” said Shindi in an interview with the Turkish part of the website.

“They sent the list of elected members to the Turkish foreign ministry. Things will be clear within a week or ten days, and after that the council members will head for Afrin.” Shindi added.

“Turkey will appoint a governor for Afrin to manage the city, but we do not know who this governor will be. However, he will be appointed by the Turkish side who will also send a Qaimagam (sub-governor) to Afrin,” the spokesman for the Rescue Afrin Conference went on to say adding that “in addition to revealing aspects of how Afrin will be managed, some steps have been taken towards securing the city as well.”

“A police force made up of four hundred and fifty personnel has been formed,” said Shindi. Various political personalities and civil parties from Afrin in Kurdistan Syria had announced the formation of Afrin Civil Council to “administer the civil aspect of the area and work for the return of the displaced”.

 

United States: Stay or Leave?

31 March 2018

Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Crown Prince and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, called for US units not to be withdrawn from Syria. “We believe American troops should stay for at least the mid-term, if not the long-term,” said the Crown Prince in an interview with Time magazine published on Friday.

“We are knocking the hell out of ISIS. We will be coming out of Syria, like, very soon. Let the other people take care of it now,” US President Donald Trump unexpectedly said in a speech in Ohio on Thursday.

It is worth mentioning that the United States is leading an international coalition to fight ISIS in Syria. The Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) are fighting alongside this international coalition.

The Saudi Crown Prince said that the US presence in Syria is the last attempt to prevent Iran from expanding its influence in the region, adding that Iran is working with regional militias and allies on building a land route that starts in Lebanon and passes through Syria and Iraq and reaches the Iranian capital of Tehran.

Two senior officials in the US administration said that President Trump informed his advisors that he wants to withdraw US forces from Syria very soon. The National Security Council is to hold a meeting early next week to discuss the campaign against ISIS.

President Trump ordered the Secretary of State to freeze more than two hundred million dollars of funds allocated for recovery efforts in Syria, as his administration re-evaluates the US role in the long-running war there.

The former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had pledged to provide these funds during a meeting of the international coalition in Kuwait in February.

 

Syrian Phosphate for Russia or Iran?

28 March 2018

The Syrian Parliament ratified a contract between the General Establishment for Geology and Mineral Resources and the Russian company Stroy Trans Gas on the investment and extraction of phosphate ores from al-Sharqieh mines in Palmyra.

According to the terms of the agreement, the production will be divided between the two sides, with the General Establishment for Geology getting thirty percent, while paying the value of the government’s obligations for the phosphate produced, in addition to other expenses estimated at two percent, according to Russia Today website.The contract expires in fifty years and is set to produce 2.2 million tons annually in a geological sector that is believed to contain one hundred and five million tons.

The Syrian Petroleum Minister Ali Ghanem, according to press statements, said that there is a huge reserve of phosphate ores in the mines of al-Sharqieh, which are estimated at 1.8 billion tons, adding that the production capacity of the General establishment for Phosphate and Mines reached three and a half million tons annually before the war in Syria started.

The General Director of the General Establishment for Phosphate and Mines Ali Khalil confirmed the return of the establishment’s production in the mines of Khnaifis and al-Sharqieh after they were liberated from ISIS.

Stroy Trans Gas has carried out projects in Russia including the construction of a gas treatment plant, and is constructing another plant now.

In early 2017, Syria and Iran signed memorandums of cooperation, which included Iran’s investment of Syrian Phosphate. The recent agreement reflects Russia’s quests to obtain privileges in Syria’s strategic resources.

Syria Media Roundup (March 1-31)

Syria Media Roundup (March 1-31)

This is a roundup of news articles and other materials circulating on Syria and reflects a wide variety of opinions. It does not reflect the views of the Media Roundup Editors or of Salon Syria. You may send your own recommendations for inclusion in each week’s roundup to info@SalonSyria.com by Monday night of every week.]

 

Inside Syria

Life Under Assad’s Bombs in a Damascus Suburb (01 March  2018) The campaign has left at least 500 civilians dead and thousands injured. The people of eastern Ghouta are also speaking for themselves. Here are some of their voices.

In Syria, ‘Never Again’ Has Become ‘Never Mind’  (02 March  2018) In the 1990s, atrocities in the Balkans and Rwanda raised choruses, after the fact, of ‘never again.’ The again is now, in Ghouta, Syria, and nobody’s doing anything to stop it.

How Sectarianism Can Help Explain the Syrian War (06 March  2018) The Syrian war is not a clean-cut sectarian conflict as some would suggest. However, a study of sectarian trends and dynamics can illuminate some overlooked aspects of the war, says Fabrice Balanche of Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.

Russian military plane crash in Syria kills 39 (06 March  2018) Officials say aircraft was not brought down by enemy fire and a technical fault may be to blame.

Government forces split East Ghouta apart, leaving residents with ‘nowhere to go’ (11 March 2018) Syrian government forces advanced and cut East Ghouta in two…, while residents said they have “nowhere” to seek safety from a barrage of aerial and ground attacks in the rebel enclave.

Syrian Observatory says war has killed more than half a million (12 March 2018) The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based war monitor, said on Monday about 511,000 people had been killed in the Syrian war since it began seven years ago.

Sick and injured start leaving Syria’s besieged Ghouta (13 March  2018) Sick and injured civilians left a rebel enclave in Syria’s eastern Ghouta on Tuesday under the first medical evacuation since one of the deadliest assaults of the seven-year war began nearly a month ago.

Dozens of medical patients leave besieged East Ghouta in Russian-backed evacuation deal (13 March  2018) Dozens of civilians left the rebel-held suburbs east of Damascus on Tuesday in the first medical evacuations from the besieged pocket since pro-government forces escalated a military assault there last month.

Afrin: Turkish forces ‘encircle’ Syrian Kurdish city (13 March  2018) The Turkish military says it has surrounded the Kurdish-held city of Afrin in northern Syria, the focus of an offensive against a Kurdish militia.

The Smell of Fear and Death (14 March  2018) Zaina Erhaim says that the situation in Eastern Ghouta, Syria is horrific. While male photographers are capturing visuals of the suffering, women are telling the stories behind that footage.

Arrests and torture of Syrian refugees returning home reported (17 March  2018) Evidence grows of systemic abuse of vast numbers of Syrians going back from Europe.

After my recent trip to Syria, I knew Afrin’s fall was inevitable – now we must concern ourselves with the next phase of war  (18 March  2018) Erdogan is triumphant, maybe too triumphant, but it’s unclear where he goes from here.

Syria war: Dozens killed as rockets hit Damascus market (20 March  2018) At least 35 civilians have been killed in a rocket attack on a busy market in a government-held district of Syria’s capital Damascus, state media report.

Syria war: Air strike ‘kills children in Eastern Ghouta school’  (20 March  2018) An air strike has reportedly killed 15 children and two women sheltering in an underground school in Syria’s besieged rebel-held Eastern Ghouta region.

Airstrikes near Idlib elementary school kill 16 children in bomb shelter, first responders say (21 March  2018) Pro-government airstrikes killed 20 civilians, including 16 children, inside a bomb shelter near a school in central Idlib province on Wednesday.

Syria war: First rebels leave defeated Eastern Ghouta town (22 March  2018) Syrian rebels and their families are being evacuated from a key town in the besieged Eastern Ghouta region as part of an agreement with the government.

Syria war: Rebel evacuations from Eastern Ghouta gather pace (25 March  2018) Syrian rebel groups have pulled out of more towns in the Eastern Ghouta, as the government tightens it grip on the enclave outside Damascus.

Thousands to depart East Ghouta in second evacuation deal, only Douma remains (25 March  2018) As many as 4,000 people are expected to depart from the opposition-held East Ghouta town of Arbin on Sunday, a Syrian state media correspondent said during a live broadcast from the area.

Assad’s Divide and Conquer Strategy Is Working (28 March  2018) After months of merciless bombardment, the Syrian regime is now exploiting rebel rivalries to win back Eastern Ghouta.

Items Looted From Eastern Ghouta Find a Market in Al-Assad District (29 March, 2018) Carloads of stolen goods are being taken out of Harasta and sold on the streets of Damascus, Alsouria Net reports.

ISIS Takes Place of HTS in Al-Qadam South of Damascus (29 March, 2018) In a surprise attack, the jihadist group surrounded regime forces, killing scores, Souriatna reports.

Syrian Arab Republic: Afrin, Flash Update No. 2 (as of 29 March 2018) Following a prolonged period of military operations in the Afrin district of Aleppo governorate since 20 January 2018, some 137,070 individuals from Afrin district are estimated to have been displaced to Tall Refaat, Nabul, Zahraa and surrounding villages, and to Kafr Naseh and Fafin, east of the Tall Refaat area. Some 50,000 – 70,000 individuals are believed to remain inside Afrin city.

Personal Essay: Caring For Mental Health Under The Bombs (30 March, 2018) In this installment of Syria Deeply series of diaries from Syrian care providers, Abdullah, a psychosocial community health worker with a local partner of the International Rescue Committee in Idlib, discusses his work helping families cope with depression and other mental health issues that are rampant across the city.

Army Finds Field Hospitals, Weapons Factories in Ghouta (30 March, 2018) Field commanders tell SANA that much equipment had been looted from government institutions.

American service member dies in Syria after Trump promises to remove U.S. troops (30 March, 2018) An American service member was killed Thursday by an improvised explosive device in Syria, a U.S. military official confirmed, marking the second American killed in action there since the United States began backing local forces in a conflict President Trump has vowed to leave.

Trapped between rebels and air raids, civilians in Eastern Ghouta face chaos (30 March, 2018) As the Syrian rebel enclave collapses, aid groups struggle to help those fleeing.

 

Regional and International Perspectives

Syria and the Problem of Left Solidarity  (01 March  2018) As the tragedy in Afrin develops, North American and European leftist platforms have been disseminating calls by Kurdish armed groups for solidarity with victims of military violence in Syria’s northern district of Afrin. Such solidarity is much needed and deserved, but so is international solidarity with civilians elsewhere in Syria. Instead, the Western Left has largely remained silent in the face of the unimpeded massacre in Eastern Ghouta. The striking hypocrisy forces us to re-examine how our concept of international solidarity applies to the unarmed victims of this war.

Millions of Syrians’ lives depend on whether they’re designated as ‘refugees’ (06 March  2018) Maja Janmyr and Lama Mourad examine the many categorizations that shape the lives of Syrians in Lebanon today and how these labels have been constructed.

Russia’s Greatest Problem in Syria: Its Ally, President Assad  (08 March  2018) Neil MacFarquhar writes “Mr. Putin can neither withdraw nor push real political change in Syria without risking the collapse of the Assad government, which would jeopardize both the effort to diminish American influence in the region and Mr. Putin’s own prestige. Mr. Assad, well aware of his leverage, resists Russian attempts toward compromise with the Syrian opposition.”

Think the War in Syria Is Winding Down? Think Again.  (15 March  2018) The conflict, having long since fallen into the hands of foreigners, is flying along on its second wind.

Paper Tigers (13 March  2018) On the seventh anniversary of the start of Syria’s uprising, one of its most prominent victims is liberal internationalism.

Saudi Crown Prince Says U.S. Troops Should Stay in Syria (30 March  2018) Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants the U.S. military to maintain a presence in Syria, despite President Donald Trump’s declaration that American forces will be pulled from the war-torn country in the near future.

Trapped between rebels and air raids, civilians in Eastern Ghouta face chaos (30 March, 2018) East of Damascus, a long and brutal battle is coming to an end. After seven years, the rebel enclave in Eastern Ghouta is close to being fully recaptured by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The fallout for civilians is already painful and chaotic, and the future uncertain.

 

Policy and Reports

Life Under Assad’s Bombs in a Damascus Suburb (1 March  2018) Wendy Pearlman and Loubna Mrie share stories of Syrians in eastern Ghouta who face tightened siege and aerial bombardment.

For Syrians in Lebanon, No Formal Plan for Return (1 March  2018) The Lebanese government risks losing international support should it develop a formal repatriation plan for Syrian refugees. This has raised concerns that non-state actors will spearhead repatriation efforts, says Dima Mahdi of the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies.

Syrian children suffer staggering levels of trauma and distress – report (6 March  2018) A Save the Children study says Syria’s mental health crisis has reached a tipping point, and that severe distress among children could cause life-long damage

SYRIA IS NOT SAFE: WHAT HOPE FOR 3 GENERATIONS WITHOUT A HOME? (12 March  2018) Today marks 2,557 days since the start of the war in Syria. People in Need works to ease the suffering of tens of thousands of people in Syria every month.

What Does the New Women, Peace, and Security Index Measure? (13 March  2018) The ambitious “Women, Peace, and Security Index” (WPS Index)—launched in October by the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS) and Peace Research Institute (PRIO)—makes up for the omission of gender inequality measures in conflict monitoring frameworks, state fragility analyses, political instability estimates, and various indicators from leading think tanks.

How women are collaborating to tell stories that break through the noise on Syria (21 March  2018) Sarah Jilani writes: “The past two years have seen a surge of books and memoirs authored by women that capture the far-reaching human consequences of the Syrian civil war. ”

Turkey: Mass Deportations of Syrians (22 March  2018) Human Rights Watch announced that Turkish security forces have routinely intercepted hundreds, and at times thousands, of asylum seekers at the Turkey-Syria border since at least December 2017 and summarily deported them to the war-ravaged Idlib governorate in Syria.

War crimes evidence in Syria ‘overwhelming’, not all can be pursued: U.N. (26 March  2018) War crimes investigators and activists have amassed an “overwhelming volume” of testimony, images and videos documenting atrocities committed by all sides during Syria’s war, a U.N. quasi-prosecutorial body said in its first report.

 

Documentaries, Special Reports, and Other Media

If I remain alive: The Ghouta diaries (26 February  2018) On February 18, 2018, Syrian regime forces intensified their bombardment of Eastern Ghouta, an area home to almost 400,000 people that has escaped government control since 2012, been besieged almost ever since and is controlled by mostly Islamist and jihadist groups. So far the assault has killed more than 550 civilians, including around 140 children, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Documenting Syria: Alaa Hassan Interviewed by Julia Meltzer (28 February  2018) An interview with Syrian photographer Alaa Hassan about his book Cardboard Castle, which is a selection from five years of photography of the metropolitan area of Damascus, Syria prior to the 2011 Syrian uprising.

Eastern Ghouta Syria: The neighbourhoods below the bombs (02 March  2018) Whole neighbourhoods in Syria’s Eastern Ghouta region outside Damascus have been flattened and thousands of families displaced, amid a government assault to retake it from rebels.

Confronting Putin, Part 5 (09 March  2018) Megyn Kelly presses Putin on Russia’s involvement in Syria’s civil war. Putin claims that the Syrian government’s reported use of chemical weapons is “fake news.”

Watch Megyn Kelly’s extended interview with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Kaliningrad (11 March  2018) Megyn Kelly’s conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin continued in Kaliningrad, Russia, where they discussed the recent indictment of 13 Russians, chemical attacks in Syria, and other issues. The interview took place on March 2.

No Turning Back: Life, Loss, and Hope in Wartime Syria (March  2018) This astonishing book by the prize-winning journalist Rania Abouzeid tells the tragedy of the Syrian War through the dramatic stories of four young people seeking safety and freedom in a shattered country.

Kidnapped Royalty Become Pawns in Iran’s Deadly Plot (14 March  2018) Qatar went to extreme lengths to secure the release of a captured hunting party — including a disastrous population transfer in Syria.

An Arabic translation of this report can be found here: نيويورك تايمز: قصة مئات ملايين الدولارات القطرية سلمتها الدوحة الى حزب الله لقاء رهائن الأسرة الحاكمة

American mother of 8 trapped in war zone Deana Lynn is a 44-year-old mother from Michigan and she has been trapped in Ghouta, Syria, since 2000 with her husband and eight children. She is calling on President Trump to help Syrian citizens

The Argentine Mahjar (16 March  2018) In this episode, Lily Pearl Balloffet discusses transnational connections between Latin America and the Eastern Mediterranean. In particular, we focus on how the mahjar influenced the Middle East in the twentieth century and how Arabic-speaking Argentines forged community ties within Argentina.

Among the refugees: a filmmaker’s epic journey from Syria to sanctuary  (18 March  2018) Alex Farrell walked through 10 countries alongside a family of Syrian refugees. His groundbreaking documentary records their perilous journey.

Meet the disabled Syrian boy who is always smiling (23 March  2018) Seven-year-old Mustafa lives in Jordan with his grandmother and his sister. The country has taken in more than 600,000 Syrian refugees.

 

Maps

The Carter Center: Syria Conflict Mapping Project Reports

Syria Conflict Update: February 22-28, 2018 The Syrian government’s siege and bombardment of Eastern Ghouta remained intense despite two separate ceasefires from the UN and Russia. Fighting around the borders of Eastern Ghouta continued, as did opposition shelling of Damascus city. In northern Syria, new opposition coalitions have taken significant territory from Hai’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, formerly Al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra), apparently with minimum fighting. Operation Olive Branch, the Turkish-led offensive into Afrin, gained control over the whole of the Syria-Turkish border from Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF, a Kurdish-led organization in northern Syria).

Syria Conflict Update: March 1-7, 2018 The Syrian government’s bombardment of Eastern Ghouta continues, despite ceasefire attempts and UN Security Council Resolution 2401. Humanitarian aid deliveries have been repeatedly hindered by continuous violence, and have only delivered a fraction of the food and medical supplies agreed upon by all parties. The Turkish-led Operation Olive Branch achieved new gains during this reporting period. Turkish and allied opposition forces have pushed towards the city of Afrin from both the north and south, forcing the US and its Kurdish allies to declare a halt to ground operations against ISIS in eastern Syria.

Weekly Conflict Summary: March 15-21, 2018 During the reporting week, pro-government forces once again took significant territory from the remaining opposition pockets in Eastern Ghouta. Ahrar al-Sham forces located in Harasta have agreed to an evacuation, along with 6,000 civilians. Despite the deal, other opposition forces have continued fighting. A major rocket attack on a Damascus market originating from one of the nearby opposition controlled areas, killed at least 35 civilians. Humanitarian aid deliveries to the area remain hindered, and aid groups are struggling to find sufficient shelter for the growing number of IDPs. Operation Olive Branch, the Turkishled offensive for northwestern Syria, took the city of Afrin from defending Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF, a Kurdish-led organization in northern Syria).

Syria war: Eastern Ghouta rebels announce ceasefire  (23 March  2018) One of the remaining Syrian rebel groups in the besieged enclave of Eastern Ghouta, outside Damascus, has announced a ceasefire.

Regime Gains in Damascus, Syria: March 12 – 26, 2018 (27 March  2018) Pro-Bashar al-Assad regime forces, including Russia and Iran, forced the reconciliation and evacuation of two of the three opposition-held pockets in the besieged Eastern Ghouta suburbs of Syria’s capital, Damascus. Salafi-Jihadist group Ahrar al-Sham fully evacuated the town of Harasta under a deal brokered by Russia. Activists reported that roughly 4,500 local residents, including more than 1,400 fighters, ultimately departed Harasta for Idlib Province on March 22 – 23.

 

Arabic links

المسيحيون العرب والخلافة الأموية المبكرة: إعادة نظر بنقش جديد (February 12 2018) يتضمن المقال دراسة مفصلة لنقش عربي قصير يذكر “يزيد الملك” مع رمز الصليب، ويتبنى أطروحة مفادها أن المسيحيين العرب في بلاد الشام عدّوا يزيد بن معاوية ممثلًا لهم.

الطفل الذي قتل مرتين  (March 03 2018) سجل مركز توثيق الانتهاكات VDC مقتل ثلاثة أطفال اختناقاً بغاز الكلور. تعذر على والد أحد هؤلاء الأطفال دفن ابنه فور وفاته بسبب كثافة الغارات واستهداف الطائرات الحربية لكل جسم متحرك على الأرض. فقام بحمل جثمان الابن والاحتماء بقبو مبنى المجلس المحلي في بلدة الشيفونية. ليلقى حتفه هو أيضاً لاحقاً بقذائف النابالم الحارق ويتحول مع ابنه لجثتين متفحمتين عثر عليهما لاحقاً في المكان.

 “الهوية الوطنية” الإشكالية المتجددة (March 03 2018) وبعد أن تشتّتوا في الأصقاع تعددت الإجابات على السؤال البسيط: “من أنت؟”، فالسوري المهاجر منذ ما قبل الحرب يصرّ على تعريف نفسه استناداً لحقبة قدومه الآمنة ليوضح أنه ليس لاجئاً، والقادم الجديد قد يشدد على منطقته التي جاء منها ليجد أشباهه، أو على طريقة عبوره ليقترب من رفاق المعاناة أو ليهرب منهم، وبالتأكيد يصطف هؤلاء وأولئك حسب انقساماتهم السياسية والدينية الأسبق، فلا يوفرون فرصةً للتذكير باختلافاتهم وخلافاتهم بل وحتى لخلق خلافات أخرى.

سوريا: ثورة الفلاحين الذين لم يعودوا كذلك (March 04 2018) برز سؤالان مركزيان منذ بدايات الثورة السورية عام 2011 أثارا دائماً حيرة وغضب مؤيديها: الأول، لماذا لم تثر المدن السورية (والمقصود هنا دمشق وحلب)؟ والثاني، لماذا لم يتمكن المعارضون السوريون من التوحد وتشكيل جبهة صلبة قادرة على قيادة الثورة سياسياً وعسكرياً؟

أنقرة وظّفت تناقضات دولية في حملتها على عفرين فنالت صمتاً وتواطؤا (March 05 2018) فجأة اختفت الانتقادات الدولية للسياسة التركية مع بدء عمليتها على منطقة عفرين، بدل أن تشتّد، مع تدفق الصور والأخبار الآتية لتساقط مدنييّن يومياً في عفرين وتدمير البنى التحتية والمعالم التاريخية فيها.

فدوى محمود.. سيدة مازالت تقاوم الاستبداد من زمن الأسد الأب إلى زمن الأسد الابن (March 08 2018) فدوى محمود: سيدة سورية اعتقلت في زمن الأسد الأب، واليوم تعمل على قضية المختفين قسرياً في زمن الأسد الابن

من أجل وحدات تحليلية أكثر دقة: رد على لبنى الأمين (March 09 2018) ريما ماجد ترد على لبنى الأمين منتقدة الوصفات التوافقية في الشرق الأوسط.

The English version of this article can be found here: In defense of accurate categories: A rejoinder to Loubna El Amine

خارج النص – سورا يكشف الدولة المتوحشة في سوريا (ج1) (March 11 2018) خصص برنامج “خارج النص” حلقته لـ “الدولة المتوحشة” للكاتب والباحث الفرنسي ميشيل سورا الذي حلل الدولة الطائفية في سوريا منذ نهاية السبعينيات قبل أن يختطف في بيروت ويسكت صوته.

تربية إدلب تعلق الدوام في عشرات المدارس بسبب القصف (March 13 2018) علّقت مديرية التربية والتعليم في إدلب الدوام في عدة مدارس ضمن مجمع إدلب والبلدات القريبة يومي الثلاثاء والأربعاء، بسبب القصف الجوي لطائرات النظام وروسيا على المنطقة.

يونيسيف: أكثر من 900 طفل قتلوا في سوريا خلال 2017 (March 13 2018) ثّقت منظمة الأمم المتحدة للطفولة “يونيسيف مقتل 910 أطفال سوريين، وتجنيد 961 آخرين على الأقل، خلال العام 2017. بحسب وكالة أنباء الأناضول.

الأزمة السورية.. هل تنتهي بالحسم العسكري؟ (March 15 2018) ناقشت حلقة “سيناريوهات” المسارات المحتملة للأزمة السورية، وطرحت ثلاثة سيناريوهات لها؛ أولها الحسم العسكري الذي قد ينهي به النظام وحلفاؤه سيطرة فصائل المعارضة المسلحة على ما تبقى لديها من معاقل.

الحرب السورية بالأرقام (March 15 2018) تتوقع دراسات أممية أن يواصل الاقتصاد السوري انكماشه بنسبة 3.9 بالمئة حتى عام 2019 و يتوقع أن يحتاج حوالي عشرة ملايين سوري إلى الإعانات الطبية و الإغاثية بشكل أو بأخر بعد سبع سنوات دامية أدت إلى تدمير أجزاء كبيرة من البنية التحتية و زيادة في المعاناة المعيشية لملايين السوريين.

إعادة الإعمار بعيون خبراء سوريين (March 16 2018) كيف من الممكن لعملية إعادة إعمار سوريا أن تتم؟ هل تلعب دول الخليج دوراً فيها؟ ماذا عن الأوربيين والصين والولايات المتحدة؟ جهاد يازجي وسنان حتاحت يقدمان لسوريالي رؤيتهما بهذا الخصوص.

هل نندم على الثورة؟ (March 18 2018) محمد ديبو يكتب في ذكرى الثورة السورية: “إن فعل الثورة لا يستوجب الاعتذار، ولا التراجع ولا الندم. وعلى الصعيد الشخصي، لو عاد الزمن إلى عام 2011؛ لكان لي المواقف نفسها، ولشاركت في التظاهرات التي شاركت فيها، وعلى الصعيد العام، كانت سورية ستسير في المسار الذي سلكته نفسه، لأن نهر التاريخ لا يمكن أن يقف في وجهه أحد، والثورة لم تكن إلا نتاج تراكمات قديمة وحديثة، تراكبت فوق بعضها البعض، وانفجرت على النحو الذي نشهده اليوم. بل إن ما رأيناه من فجور وانحطاط وإجرام هذا النظام وداعميه، يكفي لكيلا نندم على أننا صرخنا في وجهه: حرية.”

العنف كجائحة عالمية أو “تأثير سوريا” (March 18 2018) يكتب علي سفر”’تأثير سوريا‘، عبارةٌ لم تعد مجرد نحت تجريبي في سياق تحديد المصطلحات التي يحاول كثيرون وضعها للتعبير عن ظواهر تكرر حصولها هنا وهناك، فصارت أشبه بموجة عامة، لابد من البحث في أسبابها طالما أن تأثيرها بات يتجاوز محليتها.

في صباح العام الثامن للحرب: عن كل تلك الأشياء التي لن ننجو منها (March 18 2018) هلا مصطفى تكتب “عشت طوال السبع سنين الماضية في سوريا ومع ذلك هناك الكثير الكثير بخصوص هذه الحرب مما لا أعرفه ولا أفهمه، أو حتى ما لم أعد أذكره”

سقوط عفرين: “أزدهاك” التركي حطّم تمثال “كاوا الحداد” مجدداً (March 18 2018) بعد ساعات من إعلان الجيش التُركيَّ وقوات الجيش السوريّ الحر السيطرة على مدينة عفرين، بعد خروج مقاتليَّ وحدات حمايَّة الشعب الكردية منها، بدا أن الحرب دخلت مرحلة جديدة. فقد تناقل روّاد مواقع التواصل الاجتماعيّ صوراً تظهر مقاتلين داخل مدينة عفرين، وهم يسقطون ويحطمون تمثال كاوا الحداد،البطل الكردي الأسطوري الذي أنهى ظلماً تعرض له الأكراد على يد ملك فارسي يدعى أزدهاك، في مشهدٍ مُشابه لما فعله تنظيم داعش في سوريَّا والعراق، حين حطم ودمر التماثيل الأثريَّة وشواهد القبور في الأماكن التي دخلها.

بالفيديو.. قصة تمثال كاوا الحداد في عفرين من صنعه وحتى تحطيمه (March 20 2018)عمل ثلاثة من النحاتين في 18 آذار 2016، على صنع تمثال جديد للأسطورة كاوا الحداد، كلهم أمل في نصب هذا الرمز الكوردي في عفرين.

مصادر: معارضون سوريون يوافقون على إخلاء مدينة في الغوطة (March 20 2018) قال مصادر بالمعارضة ومسؤولون ووحدة الإعلام الحربي التابعة لجماعة حزب الله اللبنانية المتحالفة مع الحكومة يوم الأربعاء إن معارضين سوريين سيخلون مدينة محاصرة في الغوطة الشرقية وذلك في أول اتفاق من نوعه في المعقل الأخير لمقاتلي المعارضة قرب العاصمة.

سورية إذا خرجت من حربها: توقعات بمزيد من قوة اليسار وحضور المرأة الاجتماعي (March 22 2018) ليس صحيحاً أن السلطة السورية ذات قاعدة استناد طائفية، بل قاعدتها الاجتماعية عابرة للطوائف وهي تستند إلى السنة، الذين يشكلون غالبية التجار والصناعيين الذين كانوا قاعدة صلبة للسلطة هم والفئات الوسطى المدينية، مثلما تستند إلى الأقليات (ماعدا الأكراد).

تصوير جوي لتجمع مسلحي حرستا في الغوطة الشرقية لدمشق قبل خروجهم إلى إدلب (March 23 2018) وثق مقطع فيديو تم تصويره بواسطة طائرة “درون”، عملية تجمع مسلحي مدينة حرستا شرقي دمشق استعدادا لمغادرتهم إلى محافظة إدلب، ويُظهر الفيديو حجم الدمار، الذي لحق بالمدينة نتيجة المعارك.

سورية و”الرماد الثقيل”: الطائفية جذوراً ومصائر (March 23 2018)

حمود حمود يكتب “كما أنه من الصعب التفكر بـ “الدين”، كهوية، أو قل كناظم مخيالي يربط بين جماعة ما (لا يهم ما إذا كان هذا الناظم يَنْظمُه ربّ أم لا)، من غير التفكر به طائفياً، فكذلك الأمر ينطبق على وجود الطائفية نفسها، والتي لا يمكن التفكر بوجودها من غير مجتمع طوائف. هل بالفعل أنه لا طائفية من غير طوائف؟”

حقوق النساء السوريات منتهكة حتى في بلدان اللجوء (March 25 2018)

في ظاهرة اللجوء الصعبة وتشرد السوريين وانتشارهم حول العالم بحثاً عن الأمان، يَعلق السوريون بين مجتمعين، فلا هم في المجتمع الأم الذي تعودوا عليه ورضخوا لشروطه وقوانينه، ولا هم قادرون على الخطو نحو المجتمع الجديد والتأقلم معه والتعوّد عليه ومعرفة قوانينه.

ناجية إيزيدية ترسم معاناتها مع داعش في لوحاتها (March 27 2018)

“ماتزال صورة والدي المختطف على يد تنظيم داعش متمترسة بجدار ذاكرتي، أحاول مراراً وتكراراً أن أرسمه في لوحاتي، وأتخيل أنه عاد مع شقيقتي وأشقائي وأولادهم وزوجاتهم إلى البيت.” بصدى أنة مقهورة تدخل “سهيلة دخيل تعلو” الناجية الإيزيدية في تفاصيل أسرها مع عائلتها من قبل مقاتلي تنظيم داعش في الثالث من شهر آب/أغسطس 2014، حيث مايزال بعضهم مجهولي المصير.

يوميات سورية: تغيراتٌ بنيوية، أم مجرّد تكيّف؟  (March 28 2018) مولات ضخمة ومطاعم بديكورات حديثة وملاهي عامرة بالشابات الفتيات المهدورات في قاعاتٍ مسمومة وأثرياء جدد بلا عمل وبلا شهادة علمية أو خبرة وبلا اسم، لهم لقب واحد واسم واحد حيتان الزمن الصعب، الزمن الضائع، “تجار الحرب” وأصحاب الخطوات الواثقة الجديدة.

عندما تصبح شربة الماء مِنحة (March 26 2018)

وبعد كل التطرف الذي يحتويه مشهد قبنض، هل سيكون لنا من حجة على دوماني أو حرستاني أو عربيني إذا ما استبدل بحبة المشمش قنبلةً ورمى بها من سبّب له اليأس والإهانة وفقدان الأمل. هؤلاء التائهون الخارجون من الغوطة هم سوريون، سواءٌ أأخطأوا أم أصابوا، الأرض أرضهم وبردى امتلأ بعرق تعبهم قبل أن يمتلأ بدموعهم، بردى نفسه الذي سقى دمشق قبل أن تأتي الشركة وتجفف المنبع وتعيد بيع الماء في قارورة.

تقييم الاضرار التي اصابت موقع ماري الاثري (March 27 2018) بعد تحرير الجيش السوري لمحافظة دير الزُّور, قامت كوادر المديرية بإجراء تقييم أولي للإضرار في عدد من المواقع الاثرية التي طالتها يد الاٍرهاب ومنها موقع ماري تل الحريري ، حيث تبين وقوع دمار كبير على الأبنية التي اكتشفت من قبل البعثة الفرنسية خلال العقود السابقة ومنها قصر زمري ليم الشهير الذي يعود تاريخ بناؤه الى بداية آلاف الثاني ق.م وكذلك تم تدمير السقف الذي بني لحمايته من العوامل الطبيعية

دوما مقابل تل رفعت صفقة روسية جديدة (March 27 2018) المفاوضات المباشرة بين الجيش الروسي و«جيش الإسلام» محتدمة لمستقبل دوما في غوطة دمشق. كما أن المحادثات بين الجيشين الروس والتركي مكثفة لتقرير مستقبل تل رفعت في ريف حلب، ما ذكر بالمفاوضات غير المباشرة سابقاً لتقرير مستقبل القطاع الجنوبي من الغوطة بالتزامن مع تقدم قوات «غصن الزيتون» التركية من مركز عفرين، شمال حلب، الأمر الذي أوحى بأن عمليات توزيع قطع سوريا بين القوى الخارجية مستمرة.

العيش في المؤقت (March 29 2018) يميّزُ ياسين الحاج صالح بين مستويات مختلفة من علاقة اللاجئين بالزمان حسب القدرة على امتلاك مكان شخصي أو عائلي،  كما يمّيز بين صورتين للوعي الذاتي للاجئ، مثالية وواقعية.

رغم المخاطر، الصحفيات السوريات ينقلن الحقيقة (March 29 2018) يكتب حسن عارفة عن تجارب الصحفيات السوريات في ظل سيطرة هيئة تحرير الشام على إدلب وريفها والصراع بينها وبين جبهة تحرير سوريا.

دوما تتأرجح بين الإعلان عن التوصل إلى اتفاق وبين نفيه (March 30 2018) جيش الإسلام يقول إن التقارير الخاصة بعقد اتفاق لخروجها من دوما غير صحيحة

أهالي دوما، بين مطرقة النظام وسندان ”جيش الإسلام“ (March 31 2018) مع سيطرة الجيش السوري على أغلب مساحة الغوطة الشرقية بعد خروج فصيلي ”أحرار الشام“ من حرستا، و“فيلق الرحمن“ من زملكا وجوبر وحزة وعربين، وهي المناطق التي بقيت تحت سيطرته في القطاع الأوسط، أصبح واضحاً بأن الوجود المسلح لفصائل المعارضة السورية أصبح محسوماً في تلك المنطقة، والتي شهدت أعنف حملة عسكرية عليها منذ بداية حصارها في نهاية عام ٢٠١٢. لكن يبقى السؤال الأهم، ما هو مصير فصيل ”جيش الإسلام“ المحاصر في مثلث دوما، وبعهدته ما يقارب ١٤٠ ألف مدني؟

 

[This article is published jointly in partnership with Jadaliyya.]

ترتيبات” ثلاثية شمال سوريا”

ترتيبات” ثلاثية شمال سوريا”

تمسكت موسكو بمهلة خمسة أيام لـ«جيش الإسلام» كي يحسم موقفه التسوية في دوما شمال غوطة دمشق لإنجاز «اختراق» قبل القمة الروسية – التركية – الإيرانية الأربعاء المقبل؛ كي تتفرغ القمة لإقرار خرائط الانتشار في الشمال السوري، واختبار وجود أميركا والتحالف الدولي في منبج وشرق نهر الفرات، إضافة إلى إقرار القمة الثلاثية الانتقال من العمل العسكري إلى ملامح التسوية السياسية في سوريا.

مع استمرار إجلاء مقاتلين معارضين وأسرهم من وسط الغوطة وجنوبها ونزوح المدنيين باتجاه دمشق ليصل إجمالي الخارجين من شرق العاصمة لنحو 200 ألف شخص بينهم 150 ألف مدني، استمرت المفاوضات بين الجيش الروسي و«جيش الإسلام» لتقرير مصير دوما التي تضم معظم ما بقي من مدنيين في الغوطة.

موسكو تريد إخراج المقاتلين أو القيادات منهم. ولحل عقدة وجهة المقاتلين، طرح أخيراً خيار ذهابهم إلى منبج مع وجود تعقيدات في الطريق التي يمكن سلوكها من دمشق إلى شمال سوريا. كما عرض الجانب الروسي بقاء المدنيين في الغوطة وعودة «رموز الدولة» ومؤسساتها، وإزالة مظاهر المعارضة، إضافة إلى توفير عفو عن مطلوبين ومهلة سنة لتأجيل المطلوبين للخدمة العسكرية مع اشتراط تدمير السلاح الثقيل أو تسليمه.

في المقابل، رفض «جيش الإسلام» تسليم السلاح. وقال قياديون فيه: «تجربة النازحين في الغوطة عززت موقف القيادة الرافض لتسليم السلاح». كما تمسكوا بالبقاء في دوما ورفض المغادرة مع استعداد لتجديد اتفاق «خفض التصعيد» الذي أنجز في الصيف الماضي بوساطة مصرية وضمانة روسية. وتواصل قادة «جيش الإسلام» مع دول عربية للتوسط لدى موسكو لدعم خيار البقاء في دوما.

وطلب «جيش الإسلام» مهلة عشرة أيام مع الاستمرار بوقف النار، لكن الجانب الروسي أصر على خمسة أيام فقط بحيث «يطوى ملف الغوطة» قبل قمة الرؤساء، الروسي فلاديمير بوتين، والتركي رجب طيب إردوغان، والإيراني حسن روحاني للانتقال من المسار العسكري إلى السياسي.
دمشق تدفع لسحب موسكو إلى الذهاب إلى ريف حمص، في وقت تتأرجح موسكو بين الذهاب إلى الخيار العسكري في منطقة «خفض التصعيد» في ريف حمص وتكرار نموذج المصالحات عبر نزع السلاح. كما أن دمشق تكرر الخيار ذاته في الجنوب السوري؛ إذ مع استمرار وصول تعزيزات إلى الجنوب، جال ضباط روس ومن القوات الحكومية على مناطق في درعا لعرض تسوية، تضمنت قبول المعارضة «إزالة شعارات المسلحين من المباني» و«استرداد رموز الدولة» على أن تقوم المعارضة بـ«مساعدة الشرطة والسلطات المحلية وإدارات الدولة».

المعلومات تشير إلى أن ملف الجنوب مؤجل بسبب وجود ترتيبات روسية – أميركية – أردنية؛ ما يعني ارتباطه بإمكانية تطوير اتفاق «خفض التصعيد» لفتح معبر نصيب مع الأردن وتشغيل الخط التجاري.

لكن اللافت، أن القمة الثلاثية تبدو مهتمة أكثر بملف الشمال السوري والشمال الشرقي من الناحية العسكرية وبالملف السياسي العام. وأمام حديث الجانب الأميركي عن الانسحاب من شرق نهر الفرات والأزمة التركية – الفرنسية بعد استقبال الإليزيه وفداً كردياً سورياً، والبطء في إنجاز ملف منبج بين واشنطن وأنقرة، والأزمة القادمة بين إيران والغرب حول الملف النووي، والأزمة الروسية – الغربية حول «الجاسوس»، يتوقع أن تقر قمة بوتين – إردوغان – روحاني سلسلة من خطوات التفاهم في سوريا وخصوصاً في الشمال وشرق نهر الفرات.

وبين الملفات العالقة، مستقبل مدينة تل رفعت، حيث يريد الأتراك الدخول إليها بعد عفرين بضوء أخضر روسي، حيث جرى تبادل الخرائط لانتشار الجيش التركي وحلفائه السوريين، وبات الأمر مرتبطاً بطبيعة وجود «الدولة السورية» في تل رفعت. وفي حال تحقق ذلك، سيكون الجيش التركي في موقع أقوى للضغط على وضع منبج بعدما رفضت واشنطن مقترحات تركية لإخراج «وحدات حماية الشعب» الكردية. وقال مصدر: «أنقرة متمسكة بخروج الوحدات من منبج، ولن تقبل بعرض واشنطن تأجيل ذلك والاكتفاء بتسيير دوريات أميركية – تركية قرب منبج». ويبدو أن الملف الرئيسي سيكون مستقبل شرق نهر الفرات؛ إذ إن الجانب التركي يريد عبور نهر الفرات من الغرب إلى الشرق لملاحقة «وحدات حماية الشعب» الكردية، لكن واشنطن كانت تمنع ذلك. وقال دبلوماسي أمس: «القمة الثلاثية ستبحث في ترتيبات لوضع شرق نهر الفرات»، لافتاً إلى أن الموقف الأميركي الجديد سيترك منعكساته في المحادثات الثلاثية.

وينتشر شرق نهر الفرات ألفان من الجنود الأميركيين ومئات الجنود من التحالف الدولي المناهض لـ«داعش». وأعلنت واشنطن سابقاً، أن الجيش الأميركي «باق إلى أجل مفتوح شرق الفرات» لتحقيق خمسة أهداف: منع عودة «داعش»، تقليص نفوذ إيران، الدفع باتجاه حل سياسي في سوريا، عودة النازحين واللاجئين، ومنع استعمال الكيماوي. وبحسب المعلومات، فإن هذه الاستراتيجية الأميركية أقرت بعد مناقشات معمقة داخل المؤسسات الأميركية. لكن الرئيس دونالد ترمب أعلن نية الانسحاب كما جمد 200 مليون دولار مخصصة لإعادة الأعمار شرق سوريا. وجاء موقف ترمب قبل تسلم جون بولتون منصبه مستشاراً للأمن القومي في 9 أبريل (نيسان) وقبل تصديق الكونغرس مايك بومبيو وزيراً للخارجية خلفاً لريكس تيلرسون.

ويتوقع أن تتناول القمة الثلاثية هذه المعطيات لدى بحث «الترتيبات» شمال سوريا. وبحسب المعلومات، فإن القمة ستعطي إشارة لضرورة تحريك العملية السياسية في سوريا؛ إذ استبق المبعوث الدولي ستيفان دي ميستورا انعقاد القمة، وزار موسكو قبل يومين لحض الجانب الروسي على الذهاب إلى السياسة بعد الغوطة، وتسريع عملية إعادة النازحين من دمشق إلى شرقها.

ويتوقع أن تقر القمة الثلاثية تحريك تشكيل اللجنة الدستورية بموجب مؤتمر الحوار الوطني الذي عقد في سوتشي نهاية يناير (كانون الثاني)؛ إذ إن الدول الثلاث لم تقدم إلى الآن قائمة مرشحيها إلى دي ميستورا الذي خول مؤتمر سوتشي تشكيل اللجنة. عليه، هناك توقعات بتقديم القائمة وإقرار مرجعياتها بحيث تبدأ اللجنة عملها في جنيف قريباً لإعطاء إشارة ثلاثية بـ«الانتقال إلى التسوية السياسية بعد الغوطة»، بحسب تصورات موسكو لهذه «التسوية».

تم نشر هذا المقال في «الشرق الأوسط»

Syria in a Week (24 March 2018)

Syria in a Week (24 March 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.


Afrin in Turkey’s Hand

18 March 2018

Turkish Forces and Syrian armed opposition factions allied to them were able to enter Afrin after launching the Olive Branch Operation, which lasted for eight weeks and led to the withdrawal of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the displacement of nearly two-thirds of the city’s population.

“The estimate now is one hundred and sixty-seven thousand people have been displaced by hostilities in Afrin district,” spokesman of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance Jens Laerke said in a Geneva briefing. According to Laerke, there are around fifty to seventy thousand civilians inside the city, where health conditions are extremely difficult. The World Health Organization said that there is just one operational hospital out of four located in the city.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimated the number of displaced people from Afrin to be around two hundred and fifty thousand people. It also reported the deaths of two hundred and eighty-nine civilians including forty-three children, in addition to one thousand and five hundred Kurdish fighters. At least four hundred and ninety-six fighters from Turkish forces and opposition factions were killed, including seventy-eight Turkish soldiers.

Reports and photos from the Kurdish city and other villages show a great number of public and private property being subject to systematic looting carried out by factions of the Free Syrian Army, which participated in the operation. The looting included vehicles, houses, agricultural machines, and commercial shops. Leaked videos revealed human rights violations, field executions of Kurdish civilians and prisoners of wars, and humiliation of citizens and insult to their beliefs, as in the destruction of the statue of Kawa the Blacksmith which symbolizes the oppression and injustice Kurds faced at the hands of a Persian king, according to a local legend, and is linked to the Nowruz festival, the Kurdish New Years’ Eve which is celebrated on the twenty-first of March.

Several opposition members condemned these acts by the factions. The Turkish army has deployed military police in Afrin.

The issue of civilians in Afrin has created a crisis between Ankara, on one hand, and Paris and Berlin, on the other, after sharp criticism by the French President Emmanuel Macron and the German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Salih Muslim, the former co-chairman of the Democratic Union Party, which is considered the main Syrian Kurdish political movement, said that Turkey would not have succeeded in its operation without Russian support. “We are disappointed by the Russians because they had some obligations when they came to Syria… they promised that they were going to protect the Syrian territory,” Muslim said in a press conference in Stockholm. “Russia did not do anything (about the Turkish incursion), they gave the green light to Turkey and everybody is sure that if Turkey did not have the green light from Russia then they would not have done it,” he added.

 

Mobile Massacres

20 March 2018

A rocket launched Tuesday by opposition factions on a crowded popular market in Kashkool neighborhood, between Dwailaa and Jarmana neighborhoods in the outskirts of Damascus, has led to the deaths of at least thirty-five people, most of whom were civilians. The toll is likely to increase with tens of casualties in critical conditions. Local residents in the neighborhood said that the rocket hit a street known for its cheap prices, which gave people a chance to go shopping ahead of Mother’s Day in Syria, which is celebrated on 21March.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), the number of civilian casualties from mortar shells has risen to one hundred and seventy-nine, including twenty-five children and twenty-four women. The SOHR also documented the injury of more than eight hundred and fifteen people as a result of daily targeting in more than four consecutive months.

The intense shelling carried out by Syrian government forces with Russian aerial support on eastern Ghouta has left at least twenty-nine civilians dead in Douma, raising the toll of casualties since the start of military operations in Ghouta to one thousand and five hundred and seventeen civilians including three hundred and eleven children. Military air jets, most likely to be Syrian, targeted a bunker beneath a school in the city of Arbin in eastern Ghouta, resulting in a massacre that killed fifteen children and two women, in addition to fifty-two wounded civilians. Evacuation of medical cases along with members of their families continued in the city of Douma under an agreement between Jaish al-Islam (Islam Army) and Russia. “One thousand and eight hundred people, including three hundred and seventy-five sick people were evacuated in one week,” according to a medical source of the AFP. On 21 March, sixteen children were killed in an air raid carried out by planes, which could not be identified as Syrian or Russian, near a village school in Idlib governorate, according to the SOHR. “The aerial bombardment of the village of Kafr Battiekh in the eastern countryside of Idlib happened near a school while students were leaving for homes,” the SOHR added, noting that the children who died were less than eleven years old.

The bombardment left four other civilians dead according to the SOHR, adding that among those killed, there were fifteen people from the same family.

 

The “Victory” in Ghouta?

20 March 2018

With the start of the attack by Syrian government forces on eastern Ghouta on 18 February, a rivalry between Damascus and Moscow emerged over claiming the expected “victory” in Ghouta.

Pro-Syrian sources leaked a list of five hundred and forty-five military personnel of government forces, including thirty-five Russian servicemen, who were killed in the fighting. The Facebook page of the Russian base in Hmeimim said that “Russian forces provided aerial and ground support during the battles that led to achieving victory in a short period of time, and servicemen have sacrificed their lives.”

According to this same page, President Bashar al-Assad spoke during his visit to Ghouta to members of the Republican Guard and did not meet with forces of Brigadier Suhail al-Hasan, a.k.a. the Tiger, who enjoys special Russian support. Hmeimim base said “In this war, there are names that will be written down in history. Russian President Vladimir Putin has emphasized this during his meeting with al-Hasan.” It also added that Putin demanded that Russian units provide “special protection” for the “Tiger”. Reports say that Putin is preparing a “pleasant surprise” for the “Tiger”.

Al-Assad has been on a tour in Ghouta of Damascus. Opposition members pointed to the photos of destruction and the absence of civilians in the towns and cities of Ghouta.

 

Tal Rafaat Before Manbij

21 March 2018

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Wednesday that Turkey and the United States have come to an understanding and not a full agreement on achieving stabilization in the city of Manbij and other areas in northern Syria under Kurdish control. Turkey repeatedly threatened to extend its operations further east to Manbij, where US forces are stationed. The expansion of the Turkish army’s operations to wider areas in the east under Kurdish control threatens a confrontation between the two NATO members. Cavusoglu denied that Ankara and Washington reached an agreement on the fate of Manbij, which is located one hundred kilometers east of Afin. “We said we have reached an understanding, which is mainly that Syria’s Manbij and the east of the Euphrates are stabilized. We said we have reached an understanding, not an agreement,” he added.

He went on to say that Ankara has been seeking an agreement with Washington on who will provide security in Manbij after the withdrawal of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, which Turkey considers a “terrorist organization,” stressing that the withdrawal from Manbij will not be enough. “First, the People’s Protection Units will leave, and the people of Manbij will govern the city. The security of the area will be ensured. We will apply the Manbij model to other areas controlled by the People’s Protection Units as well,” he said. This has resulted in a crisis between the two countries. Outgoing US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson took a leading role in recent weeks to resolve the dispute, promising to find a solution for Manbij during a visit to Turkey last month. Cavusoglu’s talk came after a meeting between senior officials from the two countries on 21 March to follow up on the issue of Manbij. Turkey said that US President Donald Trump’s decision to sack Tillerson may delay the potential agreement between the two countries.

The next day, a US military and political delegation, which included Maj. Gen. Jamie Jarrard and US Ambassador William Roebuck, visited Manbij to reassure both Kurdish and Arab allies, in a step that challenges the position of Turkey, which signaled a military operation in Manbij if Kurdish fighters did not withdraw.

Turkey later announced that it would not enter Manbij until the United States fulfills its commitments, however, Ankara has focused its efforts on controlling Tal Rafaat according to an understanding with Russia.

 

Settling, Displacement, and Cheering for Al-Assad

24 March 2018

Ahrar al-Sham fighters and their families have left Harasta in Ghouta and headed for Idlib, after that, al-Rahman Corps fighters left Jobar, Ain Tarma, Arbin, and Zamalka, in conjunction with negotiations between Jaish al-Islam (Islam Army) and the Russian army to establish a “special status” for the city of Douma.

An agreement between the Representative of Russian Defense Minister Alexander Zwein and al-Rahman Corps provided for the deployment of the Russian army in areas the opposition leaves, and treatment of the injured in Russian hospitals in Syria, emphasizing Russia’s role in the agreement at the expense of Iran and the Syrian government.

A mass exodus from the city of Douma continued in the last few days through al-Wafideen crossing in northern Ghouta, which is one of three crossings set by government forces for those wishing to exit areas controlled by the opposition.

The bombardment and fighting have forced more than eighty-seven thousand civilians to flee the city since 15 March and head towards government controlled areas. More than thirty thousand stayed in their homes in towns south of Ghouta, which were taken over by the government army, according to the SOHR. During more than one month of fighting, around one thousand and six hundred and thirty civilians were killed, including around three hundred and thirty children. On Thursday, the first installment of one thousand and five hundred and eighty people, including four hundred and thirteen fighters, left Harasta and reached Idlib governorate after a very long trip. Opposition fighters agreed to hand the city to the government in exchange for providing safe passage and pardons for civilians who decided to remain there.

In a related context, social network activists circulated a video published by Enab Baladi website in which Mohammed Qabannadh, a member of the Syrian Parliament and a television producer, demanded that displaced people from eastern Ghouta cheer for President Bashar al-Assad in order to get water. The parliamentarian repeated his demands for the displaced to “glorify al-Assad and his wise leadership and to cheer for his life,” in addition to insulting Saudi Arabia and the United States, who are presumed to be supporters of the opposition. This was condemned by many Syrians.

During years of conflict, several Syrian areas, including cities and towns near Damascus, witnessed the evacuation of thousands of opposition fighters and civilians under agreements with government forces, following sieges and violent attacks, the most prominent of which were in Aleppo at the end of 2016.

 

Syria in a Week (19 March 2018)

Syria in a Week (19 March 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.


Prelude to Fierce Battles on the Seventh Anniversary

This week coincided with the seventh anniversary of the start of the Syrian movement for freedom, dignity, and justice, which turned into a fierce war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions of others, ripped society, and destroyed the economy, rendering the country a space to settle scores among regional and international powers, with no prospect for any political solutions.

The fiercest battles are taking place on two main fronts: eastern Ghouta, where government forces are attacking the besieged enclave, and Afrin, where Turkish forces backed by armed opposition factions are carrying out the attack.

Syria could face “fierce battles” in Idlib and Daraa after the offensive on eastern Ghouta, according to UN adviser Jan Egeland. The Turkish government also threatened to expand the attack on Afrin to include the city Manbej, east of the Euphrates, and northern Iraq.

This week also witnessed a new international escalation relevant to this issue, as the United States declared on Monday in the Security Council its readiness to intervene militarily in response to a presumed chemical attack in Ghouta. “There has been no cessation of hostilities,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in the meeting. “Violence continues in Ghouta and beyond – including in Afrin, parts of Idlib, and into Damascus and its suburbs.” (Reuters)

In an unprecedented escalation, Russia threatened that in the event of a threat to the lives of its servicemen, it will take retaliatory measures against missiles and launchers used. (Reuters)

This escalation comes as political tension between Russia and the West worsens, most recently with the diplomatic crisis over the attempted assassination of the Russian spy Sergey Scrippal in the UK, which led to the expulsion of twenty-three Russian diplomats from the UK on Wednesday, to which Russia retaliated in a tit-for-tat response on Saturday. (Reuters)

On the level of regional powers that are directly involved in Syria, the Saudi-Iranian escalation is heading towards new levels after the Saudi crown prince Muhammad bin Salman threatened to develop a nuclear bomb in case Iran takes that step. (Reuters)

 

Ghouta: Time for Displacement

13-18 March 2018

Government forces were able to take control of two-thirds of the besieged Ghouta this week and managed to split the remaining area into three isolated sectors: Duma which is controlled by Jaish al-Islam (Islam Army), Harasta which is controlled by Ahrar al-Sham, and Arbin and Ain Tarma which are controlled by Failaq al-Rahman (al-Rahman Corps).

After government forces reached Hamorieh, thousands of civilians moved from inside the besieged Ghouta to areas controlled by the government. The intensity of battles and artillery and aerial bombardment have not subsided. Government forces continue to advance taking control of the towns of al-Rihan, Jisreen, Saqba, Kafr Batna on Friday and Saturday (AFP), with battles entering a decisive stage.

The offensive led to the deaths of more than one thousand and four hundred civilians and thousands of casualties inside Ghouta, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Shells launched by opposition factions continued to fall on Damascus killing two hundred and forty-two civilians and injuring hundreds of others.

 

Afrin: Siege and Diaspora

13-18 March 2018

Turkish forces and opposition factions allied to them continued their military operation in Afrin, surrounding the city and cutting off water supplies amid fierce aerial and artillery bombardment, effectively controlling eighty-seven percent of the area of Afrin.

More than one hundred and fifty thousand residents in Afrin moved towards areas controlled by government forces in Aleppo, amid tragic humanitarian conditions. (Reuters) The Turkish army called on Kurdish fighters to surrender.

The Olive Branch operation has left two hundred and eighty-nine civilians dead, including forty-three children, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Four hundred and eighty-one soldiers from the Turkish forces and allied opposition factions were killed, while four hundred and sixty-nine soldiers from the People’s Protection Units (YPG) were killed, in addition to ninety-one soldiers from the government popular forces that entered the city. (SOHR)

The Turkish president said on Friday that the United States has to withdraw militants from east of the Euphrates if it wants to cooperate with Ankara (Reuters), which indicates that the Turkish operation may expand beyond Afrin to other areas in northern Syria.

 

Rape: A Weapon of War

15 March 2018

A report by UN investigators revealed on Thursday that Syrian government forces and forces allied to them used rape and sexual violence against women, girls, and men in a campaign to punish opposition areas. These actions constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity. The report also revealed opposition groups committed sexual violence and torture crimes as well, although they were “considerably less prevalent”.

“It is utterly repugnant that brutal acts of sexual and gender-based violence continued to be perpetrated throughout Syria for seven years by most warring parties,” said Paulo Pinheiro, chairman of the UN Commission of Inquiry on Syria. The report is based on four hundred and fifty-four interviews with survivors, relatives of survivors, eyewitnesses, defectors, lawyers, and medical personnel. (Reuters)