Syria in a Week (8 – 14 January 2019)

Syria in a Week (8 – 14 January 2019)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

Snow and Refuge

8 – 9 January 2019

Winter storms in Lebanon have flooded refugee camps, compounding the misery of the residents enduring powerful winds and biting cold.

The UN refugee agency said that the storm completely flooded or ruined fifteen informal camps out of sixty-six that were heavily damaged. In the Bekaa valley and other areas, the cold was accompanied by snow, adding a new chapter to the suffering of Syrian refugees.

 

US Contradictions on the Withdrawal

12 – 13 January 2019

Mustafa Bali, head of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) media offices, said on Sunday that ISIS militants “are living their final moments” in their last enclave in Syria near the Iraqi border, where these US-backed forces are attacking them. “Our fighters have stepped up attacks in the last two days and taken special measures in areas where ISIS is present, cutting escape routes and denying them the ability to reorganize… The border is under control and ISIS is surrounded,” he added.

The spokesman for the US-led coalition acknowledged the progress made, but said that the fight continues.

US President Donald Trump announced last month that he would withdraw troops from Syria, declaring they had succeeded in their mission to defeat ISIS and were no longer needed there. This announcement was followed by sharp contradictions between US officials, the last of which was the announcement by the coalition that it had begun withdrawing troops on Friday, however, US officials later said it involved only equipment!

Trump discussed with French President Emmanuel Macron US plans to withdraw from Syria during a phone call on Monday, after France expressed reservation over the US decision to withdraw from Syria without consulting partners.

 

Damascus Surprises Foreign Diplomats

12 January 2019

The Syrian foreign ministry surprised a number of foreign diplomats living in Beirut with its decision to cancel their diplomatic residency in Damascus in order to “exercise pressure” on their government to reopen the embassies in the Syrian capital.

At the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012, Western countries decided to close their embassies in Damascus, except for the Czech Republic which maintained diplomatic relationships at the ambassadors’ level and oversaw US interests in Syria. A number of diplomats are stationed in Beirut and others are active in neighboring countries, especially Turkey and Jordan, to “cover the Syrian issue.”

Some Western diplomats have gradually begun to visit Damascus as the political atmosphere and security situation changed there. They maintained their diplomatic residency in the Syrian capital offered to them by the foreign ministry. The meetings were restricted to intermittent protocol visits at the ministry, low-level public meeting, or secret visits, which included cautious political sessions with the head of the Europe department in the ministry.

The foreign ministry, which had strictly issued visas for UN workers and sought to move international institutions from neighboring countries to Damascus, informed the diplomats living in Beirut, including those from Chile, that their residencies had been cancelled. Diplomats said the decision was aimed at “pressing to reopen embassies and diplomatic relationships with Syria.” Although some countries began group coordination or coordination through the UN, some diplomats said that this could impact UN aid to Syria.

 

Turkey is Threatening

11 – 12 January 2019

Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akkar vowed on Friday to wage a campaign against US-backed Syrian Kurdish factions, sharpening focus on a potential conflict the United States has sought to avoid. Despite being NATO allies, the division between Turkey and the United States runs deep in regard to the implementation of President Donald Trump’s plan to withdraw about two thousand troops stationed in Syria. The plan hinges on Turkish cooperation to secure northeastern Syria as the United States departs.

While the US withdrawal has been clouded with conflicting messages from both Trump and his administration, the spokesman for the US-led coalition against ISIS said on Friday that the withdrawal began on Friday.

US National Security Advisor John Bolton sought to secure guarantees that Turkey would not harm the People’s Protection Units (YPG) after the withdrawal, however, this was met with stiff rebuke from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

“When the time and place come, the terrorists here will be buried in the ditches they have dug, as was done in previous operations,” Akar said in a speech to military personnel at a command center in the province of Sanliurfa, referring to two other cross-border campaigns that Turkey has carried out in Syria.

“We recognize the Turkish people’s right to defend their country from terrorists, but we also know that those … who are not terrorists and fighting alongside us for all this time deserve to be protected,” Pompeo told reporters. “There are many details to be worked out but I am optimistic we can achieve a good outcome,” he added.

 

Damascus is Intensifying Dialogue with Kurdish Groups

11 – 13 January 2019

The Assistant Syrian Foreign Minister Ayman Sousan said on Sunday that the Syrian government hoped dialogue with Syrian Kurdish groups would “intensify”, signaling support for talks the Kurds hope will lead to a political deal between two of the main players in the conflict. Kurds have sought Russian meditation for talks with the Syrian government as part of their strategy to fill the void that will be left when US forces withdraw from the country, as instructed by President Donald Trump. The Kurd’s objective is to prevent an invasion by neighboring Turkey, which considers the People’s Protection Units (YPG) – the main Syrian Kurdish group – as a national security threat, in addition to preserving autonomy in northern Syria.

“We hope for the intensification of the dialogue. Many of the Kurdish statements were positive regarding their concern for the unity of Syria,” said Sousan. “We are confident that through dialogue we can deal with some of the demands … and this dialogue guarantees that, as long as it based on a commitment to Syria’s unity,” he added.

Russia stressed the importance of dialogue between the Kurds and Damascus. Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told reporters that territory previously controlled by the United States should be transferred to the Syrian government. “In this regard, establishing dialogue between the Kurds and Damascus takes on particular significance. After all, the Kurds are an integral part of Syrian society,” said Zakharova.

 

Tahrir al-Sham Dominates Idlib

 10 January 2019

Tahrir al-Sham (previously Nusra), which is on a US list of terrorist organizations, tightened its grip over most parts of Idlib after a military campaign against Turkey-backed factions, forcing some the factions to dissolve and others to accept a peace deal recognizing civilian control by an administration backed by Tahrir al-Sham.

Turkey and Russia did not intervene during Tharir al-Sham’s campaign. Turkish Foreign Minister said: “We are taking the necessary precautions.”

According to Reuters, an official in the opposition said that Ankara played a key role in preventing the fighting from spreading further by pressing the opposition to accept the deal.

According to Enab Baladi website, one thousand fighters from the Islamic Ahrar al-Sham and others affiliated with Jaish al-Nasr faction have left Hama countryside for Afrin on Sunday under an agreement with Tahrir al-Sham, after the latter entered the area and took control of it. This number is part of two thousand and seven hundred fighters getting ready to leave for areas in the northern countryside of Aleppo because of their distrust in Tahrir al-Sham. Enab Baladi’s reporter said that the remaining group of fighters will leave Hama countryside on Monday.

 

Turkey is Mobilizing near Idlib

12 January 2019

Official media reported that Turkish troops and tanks carried out military exercises on the border with Syria on Saturday, while the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said a Turkish convoy crossed the border into northern Syria. The Turkish army sent tanks and armored vehicles to the border in the second day of reinforcement near the governorate of Idlib, the last major opposition stronghold in Syria.

On Friday, a Turkish military source said the Turkish army had been rotating forces in and out of the region, and declined to say whether the latest movement was in preparation for an operation inside Idlib itself.

The rise of the extremists has raised doubt over the future of a deal agreed in September between Turkey and Russia to avert a Syrian government army offensive. The agreement requires banned extremist groups to be expelled from a frontline buffer zone. The escalation comes as US forces prepare to withdraw from a region in northeastern Syria.

 

Israel Bombs and Acknowledges

11 – 13 January 2019

The official Syrian news agency said Israeli warplanes fired a number of missiles toward the Damascus area on Friday, triggering Syrian air defense that shot down most of them. The results of the airstrike were limited to a strike on one of the warehouses at Damascus airport. This attack is part of a series of Israeli attacks, the last of which was on 25 December that left three Syrian soldiers wounded according to official Syrian statements.

This time however, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged on Sunday Israel’s weekend attack on what he called an Iranian arms cache in Syria. Last week, an observer in Netanyahu’s security cabinet, Tzachi Hanegbi, said that there had been “more than two hundred and twenty” Israeli operations against Iranian targets in Syria. (Reuters)

 

Severe Fuel Crisis

13 January 2019

Syria has been going through the worst crises in terms of fuel, electricity, and infant formula for the last month, leading some to describe it as the most difficult stage the country has witnessed throughout the war. The current crises differ from the previous ones because their justifications are unclear amid government confusion.

For more than a month now, Syrians do not know the reason for the shortage of natural gas, amid conflicting government statements, starting from the Ministry of Petroleum which denied the presence of a crisis in the first place and confirmed that it was pumping the country’s need. Then came a statement from the Syndicate of Petroleum Workers accusing the Ministry of Internal Commerce of not regulating the market and stressing that black market traders were behind the crisis.

After that, the Ministry of Petroleum said that sanctions against Syria, Iran, and Russia delayed the arrival of the gas tanker ships. This was followed by yet other statements that gas would be available within days. The ministry then said weather conditions delayed the arrival of the tankers. The most recent statement came on Thursday indicating a problem in supply with previously signed contracts. The price of household natural gas reached eight times the official price in some areas.

 

 

Syria in a Week (18 – 24 December 2018)

Syria in a Week (18 – 24 December 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

Trump Withdraws

19 – 23 December 2018

Reuters

US President Donald Trump overrode his top national security advisors, blindsided US ground commanders, and stunned lawmakers and allies with his order for US troops to leave Syria, a decision that upends US policy in the Middle East. Trump defended on Thursday his surprise decision to declare victory over ISIS in Syria and completely withdraw US troops from the country, amid criticism from some Republicans and concern from allies and some US military commanders. Trump tweeted that he was fulfilling a promise from his 2016 presidential campaign to leave Syria. Echoing a central plank of his foreign policy–that he seeks to stop the United States being taken advantage of–he said the United States was doing the work of other countries, including Russia and Iran, with little in return. “Does the USA want to be the policeman of the Middle East, getting nothing but spending precious lives and trillions of dollars protecting others who, in almost all cases, do not appreciate what we are doing? Do we want to be there forever? Time for others to finally fight,” he tweeted.

A US official said the United States would probably end its air campaign against extremists in Syria when it pulls out its troops. The US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis opposed the decision and abruptly announced on Thursday that he was resigning after meeting with the president. In a candid letter to Trump, the retired Marine general emphasized the importance of “showing respect” to allies that have voiced surprise and concern about the president’s decision. Democrats joined several republicans in Congress in urging the president to reverse course, saying the withdrawal would strengthen the hand of Russia and Iran in Syria and enable a resurgence of ISIS. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham on Friday called for immediate US Senate hearings on President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw all US troops from Syria, which prompted the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. The surprise announcement by Trump that he would withdraw roughly 2,000 troops has felled a pillar of US policy in the Middle East. Critics say Trump’s decision will make it harder to find a diplomatic solution to Syria’s seven-year-old conflict.

US officials, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said that the US military ground commanders are concerned over the effects of a rapid withdrawal and that they were taken by surprise with the troop withdrawal decision. A US official said that all US State Department personnel would be evacuated from Syria within twenty-four hours, after the White House said it had started withdrawing US forces. The official said the US plans to pull military forces out of the country once the final stages of the last operation against ISIS is complete, and that the time-frame for the troop pullout is expected to be between sixty to one hundred days. The US president said on Sunday that he spoke with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan about “a slow and highly coordinated” withdrawal of US troops from Syria. Trump said he and Erdogan also discussed “heavily expanded” trade between the United States and Turkey, after the two NATO allies’ relationship went into a tailspin over the summer. The office of Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said on Saturday that United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo assured the Prime Minister that the US is still committed to fighting ISIS in Iraq and other areas despite its planned withdrawal of troops from Syria.

 

Turkey on Standby

20-23 December 2018

Reuters

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan “cautiously” welcomed Washington’s decision to withdraw its troops from Syria, adding that his country would postpone a military operation against Kurdish fighters in northeast Syria. Reuters reported that Turkey began reinforcing its positions on both sides of its border with Syria on Sunday, as Ankara and Washington agreed to coordinate a US withdrawal from Syria. The heightened military activity comes two days after Erdogan said Turkey would postpone a planned military operation against Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) east of the Euphrates river in northern Syria following the US decision to pull out. “We have postponed our military operation against (Kurdish fighters) east of the Euphrates river until we see on the ground the result of America’s decision to withdraw from Syria,” stressing that this was not an “open-ended waiting period”.

The Turkish presidency said that Erdogan and Trump agreed on Sunday to coordinate to prevent an authority vacuum from developing as the United States withdraws from Syria. In a phone call between the two leaders, Erdogan also expressed satisfaction with steps taken by Washington regarding combating terrorism in Syria and said Turkey was ready to provide any type of support, the presidency said. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogand said on Friday that Turkey will take over the fight against ISIS in Syria as the United States withdraws its troops, in the latest upheaval wrought by Washington’s abrupt policy shift.

 

Russia Welcomes

19 – 22 December 2018

Reuters

The Kremlin said on Friday that it did not understand what the United States’ next steps in Syria would be, and that chaotic and unpredictable decision-making was creating discomfort in international affairs. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow wanted more information about the planned withdrawal of US troops from Syria, announced unexpectedly by President Donald Trump this week. In Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he largely agreed with Trump that ISIS had been defeated, but added there was a risk it could recover. He also questioned what Trump’s announcement meant in practical terms, saying there was no sign yet of a withdrawal of US forces, whose presence in Syria Moscow calls illegitimate.

TASS news agency reported the Russian Foreign Ministry as saying on Wednesday that a decision to withdraw US troops from Syria creates prospects for a political settlement of the crisis there. TASS also cited the ministry as saying that an initiative to form a Syrian constitutional committee had a bright future with the US troop withdrawal. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi said that the US military presence in Syria had been “a mistake, illogical and a source of tension”, in Tehran’s first reaction to President Donald Trump’s planned pull-out.

 

Kurds Are Losing

19 – 23 December 2018

Reuters

After being among the biggest winners of Syria’s war, the Kurds stand to lose most from the US decision to withdraw forces who have helped them battle ISIS militants and deter Ankara and Damascus. With the US help, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have captured large parts of northern and eastern Syria from ISIS, but warn that the extremists still pose a threat even if President Donald Trump has declared their defeat.

The US-backed SDF spearheaded by the People’s Protection Units (YPG) said a Turkish attack would force it to divert fighters from the battle against ISIS to protect its territory. The co-president of the Syrian Democratic Council Ilham Ahmed said on Friday that the Kurdish-led forces in northern Syria may not be able to continue to hold ISIS prisoners if the situation in the region gets out of control after a US pullout. The US-backed SDF would have to withdraw fighters from the battle against ISIS to protect its borders in the event of a Turkish attack, spokesman Mustafa Bali told Reuters on Friday.

French presidency officials met representatives of the Kurdish-dominated SDF in Paris on Friday and assured them of French support, an Elysee palace official said. The SDF officials included Ilham Ahmed and Riad Darrar. “The advisers passed on a message of support and solidarity and explained to them the talks France had with US authorities to continue the fight against ISIS,” an Elysee official said.

The Syrian Democratic Forces, which have been fighting the militant group with US support for three years, said the withdrawal of troops would leave Syrians stuck between “the claws of hostile parties” fighting for territory in the seven-year war. The SDF are in the final stages of a campaign to recapture areas seized by the militants, but they face the threat of a military incursion by Turkey, which considers the Kurdish YPG fighters who spearhead the force to be a terrorist group, and Syrian forces committed to restoring government control over the whole country. The SDF said the battle against ISIS had reached a decisive phase that required more support, not a precipitate US withdrawal, which threatens to “revive” and lead to a “political and military vacuum in the area.”

 

Europe is the Last to Know

19 – 23 December 2018

Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Sunday he deeply regretted US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops from Syria. This abrupt shift in Washington’s policy in the Middle East alarmed US allies. French Defense Minister Florence Parly said US President Donald Trump took “an extremely grave decision” to pull troops from Syria, adding: “We do not share the analyses that ISIS has been annihilated.”

France and Germany, US allies in NATO, warned that the US change of course risked damaging the campaign against ISIS which seized big swathes of Iraq and Syria in 2014-2015 but have now been beaten back to a sliver of Syrian territory.

A German defense ministry spokesman said in a news conference on Friday that the United States’ decision to withdraw from Syria had no direct impact on Germany’s mandate in the fight against ISIS. A government spokeswoman said that German would have found it helpful if the United States had consulted with other governments before deciding to withdraw US troops from Syria. Additionally, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Thursday that the United States’ sudden change of course on Syria is surprising and risks damaging the fight against ISIS. Similarly, British Defense Minister Tobias Ellwood said on Wednesday that he strongly disagrees with Trump, adding that ISIS “has morphed into other forms of extremism and the threat is very much alive.”

 

ISIS Attacks Once Again

19 – 21 December 2018

Reuters

ISIS launched an attack on Friday on positions held by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Hajjin in southeastern Syria and the US-led coalition mounted air strikes in the area, said Mustafa Bali, Director of the Media Center of the SDF. “ISIS launched a massive attack, fierce fighting is going on there… Our forces liberated only thirty-five percent of Hajjin,” said Bali on Twitter. ISIS used car bombs and dozens of militants in the attack near Abu Khaser village in the Hajjin area of southeastern Syria, where the SDF and coalition are battling to wipe out the last ISIS pocket east of the Euphrates River, Bali added.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said on Wednesday that Islamic State militants had executed nearly seven hundred prisoners in nearly two months in eastern Syria. The SOHR added that the prisoners were among one thousand and three hundred and fifty civilians and fighters that the group had been holding in territory near the Iraqi border. SDF commander-in-chief Mazloum Kobani told Reuters last week that at least five thousand ISIS fighters remain holed up in the enclave, including many foreigners who appear ready to fight to the death.

 

Constitutional Committee Fumbling

19 December 2018

Reuters

Russia, Iran and Turkey, the supporters of the main sides in the Syrian conflict, failed on Tuesday to agree on the makeup of a UN-sponsored Syrian Constitutional Committee but called for it to convene early next year to kick off a viable peace process. After the trio met UN Syria peace envoy Staffan de Mistura, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov read out a joint statement saying that the new initiative should be guided “by a sense of compromise and constructive engagement”. The ministers had hoped to seal their joint proposal on a committee–which could usher in elections – and win UN blessing for it. But the statement by the three made no mention of the composition of the panel, pointing to lingering disagreement over lists of candidates. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, speaking to Turkish state media, said that the three countries had made “important contributions” to the creation of the panel and that suggested names were assessed.

De Mistura, addressing a separate news conference, made clear the three powers had not nailed down a workable political forum yet, after years of abortive attempts at ending a war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced around half of Syria’s population. “I believe there is an extra mile to go in the marathon effort to ensure the necessary package for a credible, balanced, and inclusive constitutional committee… to be established under UN auspices in Geneva,” de Mistura added.

 

 

الشبكة العنكبوتية مصيدة داعش لتجنيد الشباب

الشبكة العنكبوتية مصيدة داعش لتجنيد الشباب

سمعت عنود للمرة الأولى تعليقات ولديها خلف وضرغام المعجبين بداعش، “زلم وشجعان مخلصين” قالا وهما يشاهدان مقطع فيديو لمسلحي التنظيم يرجمون سيدة حتى الموت في ريف حماة بتهمة الزنا.

ولكن نزلت عليها الصدمة “كالصاعقة” منتصف آب/أغسطس ٢٠١٥ بعد اختفائهما. تقول الأرملة الخمسينية المنحدرة من ريف مدينة “تل حميس” “بدايةً ظننتُ أنهما خُطفا، وبعد شهر علمتُ من ابن عمهما أنهما توجها إلى مدينة الرقة وانضما رسمياً لصفوف التنظيم الإرهابي.”

أسر بعد ذلك ابنها ضرغام على يد وحدات حماية الشعب، وفجر خلف نفسه في عملية إرهابية في دير الزور العام الفائت، لتتزوج أرملته من مقاتل آخر، مما اضطر عنود لتحمل مسؤولية إعالة أحفادها الأربعة، فعملت كبائعة ألبسة متجولة بين حارات المدينة.

أما سعاد (اسم مستعار لمعلمة من الشدادي في ريف الحسكة) فقد شاهدت جثتي ولديها اليافعين غيث وليث في هاتفها النقال، إثر مقتلهما بغارة جوية للتحالف الدولي على معاقل تنظيم داعش في الرقة قبل عامين.

وكانت سعاد فرّت مع عائلتها من الشدادي للعيش في الحسكة قبل أكثر من ثلاث سنوات، بعد سيطرة التنظيم عليها وانتابتها الشكوك قبلاً بانتماء ولديها للتنظيم، إثر تعنيفهما لشقيقتهما الوحيدة إسراء، وإجبارها على ارتداء العباءة والخمار الأسود “برقع”. وتقول سعاد “قام أيضاً غيث وليث بمنع إسراء من الذهاب إلى المدرسة ونعتاها بالمرتدة والخارجة عن الدين؛ في حين أمضيا معظم وقتهما على الإنترنت حتى ساعات متأخرة من الليل.”

دفعت هذه التغييرات السلوكية سعاد وزوجها إلى مراقبة الولدين، والبحث في هواتفهما النقالة كلما سنحت لهما الفرصة لقراءة رسائلهما الخاصة، وقد شاهدا فيهما العديد من مقاطع فيديو لذبح وقتل وحرق مارسها متطرفو داعش.

تروي سعاد أنها في إحدى المرات “قرأت رسالة شخص كنى نفسه بأبي همام على حسابه على  تويتر يعد غيث (١٦ عاماَ) بتأمين دخوله وشقيقه ليث (١٥ عاماً) إلى دولة الخلافة.” دفع خوف سعاد على ولديها من الانضمام للتنظيم إلى استدانة مبلغ ٢٥ ألف دولار من شقيقها لدفع تكاليف تسفيرهما لألمانيا وحمايتهما من دعاية التنظيم.

تقول سعاد “استدلينا أنا وزوجي على مهرب للبشر تكفل في إيصالهما من القامشلي إلى تركيا فروسيا وصولاً لألمانيا، فشقيقي المقيم هناك منذ عشر سنوات كان سيستقبلهما، وبالفعل وصلا من تركيا إلى روسيا لكنهما رجعا إلى تركيا مجدداً وعبرا إلى الرقة، حيث قتلا بعد تسعة أشهر من وصولهما للمدينة، لقد فات الأوان وفشلتُ في إبعاد شبح داعش عن طريق ولدي والنهاية كانت كارثية علينا.”

الأئمة المتشددون

ازدادت شكوك دانيال محمد بتوجهات صديق طفولته وابن عمه محمد المتطرفة، في كل مرة يرسل له فيها عبر تطبيق الواتس أب مقاطع يوتيوب لخطباء داعش، وهم يعدون بحياة وردية ما بعد الموت و”بحور عين تنتظر من يفجر نفسه في الكفار أعداء الخلافة.”

إلى أن أيقن دانيال أخيراً أن ابن عمه الذي فر من الخدمة الإلزامية منتصف آذار ٢٠١١ وسافر إلى مدينة غازي عنتاب التركية، قد تشرب من فكر داعش ويسعى إلى جره هو الآخر لمستنقع التطرف.

يقول دانيال “في كل مرة كنتُ أسأل محمد عن سبب تحدثه العربية الفصحى بدل لهجتنا العامية كان يبتسم ويقول لأنها لغة أهل الجنة.” وعن كيفية وصول داعش لابن عمه يضيف دانيال “لدى داعش منصات عملاقة على وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي لتجنيد ضحاياه. ونجح عبرها في استقطاب آلاف الشباب، ومنهم ابن عمي الذي انقطعت أخباره عني لفترة أشهر، ومن ثم تفاجأت بخبر مقتله منشوراً مع صورة له على إحدى الصفحات التي يديرها التنظيم.”

ويعتقد دانيال أن العديد من الشباب انساقوا خلف بعض الأئمة المتشددين الذين شوهوا أفكارهم “عندما يتواصلون معهم عبر الشبكة العنكبوتية، يُصبح من السهل إعطاؤهم جرعة كراهية واحدة عن مجتمعهم ومزيداً من التطرف، ليصبحوا جاهزين لتبرير عمليات قتل وذبح أفراد في مجتمع يرونه كَافراً بسبب خطاب الأئمة المتشددين. أعتقد لو أنه تمت مراقبتهم منذ البداية لما أفرز المجتمع كل تلك النماذج غير السوية في تفكيرها.”

ملايين المستخدمين

سخَّر تنظيم داعش الشبكة الرقمية لبث وتجنيد الشباب اليافع في صفوفه لسهولة استخدامها وسرعة انتشار وسائل الإعلام الجديد بين الشرائح الشبابية بحسب مؤيد كريم، الخبير في مواقع التواصل الاجتماعي وتقنية المعلومات، ويشير كريم إلى أن سرعة تطور الإنترنت أدى إلى تغير النظرة حول خطورة الإرهاب الإلكتروني من أعمال القرصنة التي تطال مواقع لمؤسسات حكومية وإعلامية ضخمة؛ إلى القلق من استخدام التنظيمات المتشددة لشبكات التواصل الاجتماعي لتجنيد الشبان واليافعين، لاسيما وأن عدد مستخدمي “الفيسبوك” من العرب قد تخطى الـ ٩٠ مليون مستخدم. ويقول كريم إن “عناصر التنظيم يلجؤون للترويج لأفكارهم المتشددة عبر أجهزتهم المحمولة وهواتفهم الذكية التي يصعب رصدها”، موضحاً أن “داعش يشن هجمات نفسية ضد من يعتبرهم أعداءه، من خلال نشره لأفلام مُرعبة لإعدام ونحر رؤوس رهائن وأسرى لديه”.

أما أكثر وسيلة تواصل اجتماعي يعتمد عليها داعش في حربه الإلكترونية، فهي موقع “تويتر” بحسب كريم، فهو يوفر خاصية العمومية والتدوين المباشر الذي يُتيح بث التغريدات لعدد هائل من مستخدميه. ووفقاً لكريم فقد تجاوز تعداد الحسابات النشطة على توتير العام الفائت ٢٧٠ مليون مستخدم، ويُقدر نشر أكثر من ٤٠٠ مليون تغريدة يومياً.

“أحفاد الرسول”، “دار الخلافة”، و”زهرة المقدس” جميعها حسابات تُصدر الإرهاب عبر منصات التواصل، لتحصل على أكبر عدد من المتابعين الشباب كما بينت الصحفية التونسية “زهور المشرقي” في مستهل حديثها. وتشير المشرقي إلى دراسة حديثة كشفت عن امتلاك تنظيم داعش لسبع أذرع إعلامية، ومنها “الفرقان”، و”الاعتصام”، و”مكاتب الولايات”، وإذاعة “البيان”، ومجلة “دابق” إضافة لـ٢٩٠ ألف صفحة على الإعلام الاجتماعي لاسيما “تويتر “و”الفيسبوك.” تهدف جميعها بشكل رئيسي للترويج والتسويق لفكر التنظيم حول العالم “لتجنيد أكبر عدد من الشباب لاسيما المتشدد في أفكاره من كل أنحاء العالم” بحسب الدراسة.

المسلمون والخبراء النفسيون…للدعاية

ولإدراك التنظيم لأهمية الدعاية الإلكترونية، أصدر استراتيجية تتناول سبل جعل المسلمين يعملون كنشطاء دعائيين لديها على الإنترنت، وهدفت الوثيقة المؤلفة من ٥٥ صفحة إلى جذب المسلمين وإغرائهم للترويج للتنظيم في نشر رسالته العنيفة المتشددة في العالم الرقمي والتي تحدثت إحدى فقراتها: “الأسلحة الإعلامية يمكن أن تكون في الواقع أكثر فعالية من القنابل الذرية.”

و أوصى باحثون من كلية “كينغر كوليدج” البريطانية في تقرير لهم بعد ترجمة الوثيقة على مواجهة سعي التنظيم إنابة المسلمين عنه كدعاة ومروجين، من خلال تزويد المجندين المحتملين من الشباب المسلم ممن يبحثون عن هدف لأنفسهم في غرف الدردشة برسائل إيجابية تلبي احتياجاتهم وتمنع تطرفهم.

يشير آرام حسن (استشاري الصدمات النفسية ومدير مركز “كوتم” في ألمانيا) إلى دراسات وإحصاءات أثبتت نجاح التنظيم في حربه الإلكترونية والتي فاقت نجاحاته في حروبه الميدانية التي خاضها في سورية والعراق.

ويتحدث حسن عن توظيف داعش لخبراء نفسيين يستخدمهم في مساعيه لتجنيد عناصره الجدد، “لديهم خبرة، تظهر جلية في إصداراتهم الإعلامية المقروءة والمرئية التي يخرجونها باحترافية عالية، ناهيك عن اللغة المستخدمة وتحكمهم في طبقات الصوت والمؤثرات. كل هذا يدل على خبرة وعلم واحتراف” يقول حسن.

وعن آليات التعامل مع هذه الدعاية يشير حسن إلى أن إيقاف تأثير التنظيم على الشباب يمكن حله على مستوى الأفراد، والحكومات، والمؤسسات الدولية من خلال إنشاء مراكز لمكافحة التطرف، وتوعية مستخدمي الشبكة العنكبوتية بخطورة هذه التنظيمات للحد من تأثيرها على عقول الشباب.

Syria in a Week (4 –10 December 2018)

Syria in a Week (4 –10 December 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

Northern Syria Between Turkey and the United States

7 December 2018

(Reuters)

The Turkish-US working committee on Syria said on Friday that the two countries agreed to speed up efforts to put in place an agreement on Manbij, in the countryside of Aleppo, by the end of the year. Turkey and the United States reached the deal on Syria’s Manbij this year after months of disagreement, under which the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) is to withdraw from the city. Ankara, which considers the YPG a terrorist organization, says that the withdrawal has not happened yet. During a meeting on Friday, the two sides also agreed to continue joint work with regard to other areas, as mentioned in the Manbij roadmap. The official Anadolu news agency said that Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar told the US Special Envoy to Syria James Jeffrey that the United States should give up on building observation points in Syria.

Last month, the United States Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said that his country is setting up “observation posts” along parts of the border between Turkey and Syria to help keep the focus on defeating ISIS in Syria. However, Turkey has expressed unease with the plans and has been angry at US support for the YPG, which is a main ally in the fight against ISIS.

 

More Eliminations

9 December 2018

A former leader in the Free Syria Army (FSA), Mashhour al-Kanakri, was shot dead by unidentified gunmen in Da’el, in the countryside of Daraa on Sunday. According to Enab Baladi website, two unidentified gunmen shot al-Kanakri while he was in Da’el and he was killed instantly. Government forces did not comment on his death and no one has claimed responsibility for the assassination. Al-Kanakri was from the city of Da’el and held a leadership role in al-Jabha al-Janobieh Brigade (The Southern Front), which was affiliated with the FSA, before he settled his status and joined the government forces in July.

In Afrin, one person was killed and several others were injured on Sunday 9 December, after an explosive device was detonated in a car for the Sultan Murad Brigade, which is affiliated with the FSA and stationed in the town of Bolbol in Afrin countryside. This is the second explosion of its kind in one week, according to Enab Baladi, after another explosive device was detonated in one of the brigade’s car in the al-Mahmodieh district of Afrin, which left one person dead and another injured. No one claimed responsibility for this explosion either. This incident comes two days after the YPG declared the deaths of members of the Turkish army and the FSA, after targeting their positions in Afrin.

 

SDF Progressing

9 December 2018

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said that it has gained new territory from ISIS in the Hajjin area in the countryside of Deir Azzor. The SDF stated that its forces were able to advance two kilometers and deploy thirty posts in al-Baghoz and deploy thirty-five new posts after repelling fierce ISIS attacks. On the other hand, the ISIS new agency Amaq said that the group’s fighters targeted a gathering of SDF fighters with a guided missile in the village of al-Bahra, east of Hajjin. SDF has been engaged in military operations with the support of the international coalition to control the Hajjin pocket in the countryside of Boukamal, east of the Euphrates. In the last two days, the US-led international coalition’s airplanes have intensified their airstrikes against Hajjin, the last stronghold for the group.

 

ISIS Executions

5 December 2018

(Reuters)

The UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet said on Wednesday that the UN has reports of ISIS executing people who are perceived as cooperating with opposition fighters in Deir Azzor governorate in eastern Syria.

Speaking to a news conference in Geneva, Bachelet voiced deep concerns for seven thousand civilians who she said were in a trapped situation by the Islamic State fighters, which has prevented them from leaving Deir Azzor and the effects of the air strikes by the US-led coalition. She explained: “we also have reports of ISIS executing people perceived as cooperating with the SDF or other parties to the conflict,” adding that civilians were being used as “pawns and bargaining chips” in the conflict.

 

Attack on Damascus Airport?

9 December 2018

(Reuters and Enab Baladi)

The official Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) issued a report on Sunday saying that the Syrian air defenses had intercepted enemy targets around Damascus international airport, but later in the day SANA said that the attack had not happened. In its initial report the agency said: “our air defenses intercepted enemy aerial targets in the vicinity of Damascus international airport in southern Damascus.” The agency later removed the report from its website. Still, it quoted later a source at the Damascus international airport as saying “there was no attack on the airport and the air traffic is normal.” However, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) declared that there had been firing near the airport. Several explosion sounds were heard in Damascus suburbs as air defenses were launched close to the airport, according to the SOHR.

Al-Ikhbarieh al-Sourieh, an official TV news channel, started its live coverage of the bombing near Damascus at ten in the evening, only to abruptly stop afterwards. Damascus Now network said that, the vicinity of Damascus airport and military positions south of Damascus, were subject to “unidentified” bombardment. Voice of the Capital network also mentioned preliminary information that confirms the targeting of a recently built depot in the vicinity of Damascus airport. Israel did not comment on the bombardment, a policy taken in several bombing events of military positions in Syria in recent months. These latest events come one week after a rocket attack that targeted Syrian government military positions in al-Kisweh, in the western countryside of Damascus, and southern Syria.

 

North Korea and Syria

4 December 2018

Officials said that Syria and North Korea’s foreign ministers met in Damascus on Tuesday and thanked each other for their support during years of international isolation. The Foreign Minister of North Korea Ri Yong Ho thanked Walid al-Moualem for Syria’s opposition to economic sanctions on Pyongyang, according to Syria’s foreign ministry. Moualem said Syria was grateful for North Korea’s support in international forums. UN monitors say the relationship has gone deeper than diplomacy and accused North Korea in February of cooperating with Syria on chemical weapons–a charge North Korea had denied.

Israel in 2007 bombed a suspected nuclear reactor in eastern Syria which it said was being constructed with help from North Korea and had been months away from activation. Syria, a signatory of the 1970 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, has always denied that the site was a reactor or that Damascus engaged in nuclear cooperation with North Korea. Both countries have faced international isolation, North Korea over its nuclear weapons program, and Syria over its nearly eight-year-old civil war.

 

Pressure on Refugees

6 December 2018

The Lebanese General Security announced a campaign to close violating shops that are owned or managed by Syrian citizens. The campaign includes various areas only in Akkar governorate, where the General Security is carrying out inspections of institutions and shops owned by Syrians, according to the state-run National News Agency.

In February of 2017, the Labor Ministry issued a decree stipulating conditions for Syrians to open investment projects in Lebanon. Under the decree, a Syrian project owner must have two or more Lebanese sponsors, in addition to paying due taxes. If the shop is small, the decree stipulates that the shop owner must employ a Lebanese citizen, in addition to paying taxes.

This decree led to the closure of tens of shops in various Lebanese governorates because their owners were not able to adhere to the required conditions. The Lebaneses constantly complain about competition from Syrian refugees in the labor market, and have repeatedly demanded that their commercial shops be closed.

 

Failure of the Return

7 December 2018

(Enab Baladi and Daily Star)

The Ministry of State for Refugee Affairs said that the Russian plan to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees to Syria cannot be implemented from a practical standpoint. In a statement to the Daily Star on Friday 7 December, Minister Mouin al-Merehbi said that Russia does not have the capability to implement the plan because it did not and will not provide the necessary guarantees to encourage refugees to return. Merehbi added that the Russian plan has stalled, but Moscow did not officially acknowledge that.

In July, Russia announced a plan for the return of Syrian refugees to their country, saying that under the plan 1.7 million refugees would go back. Since then, Russia has sought to mobilize international support for its plan, however, it was faced with international refusal, especially after the European Union said that Syria “is not safe yet” for refugees to return.

Although Lebanon was one of the first countries to welcome the Russian plan, Merehbi statements indicate the failure of its implementation in Lebanon. Several Lebanese officials held meeting with Russian officials to discuss the implementation of the plan in Lebanon. Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri asked his counselor for Russian affairs to communicate with Russian officials to understand the details of the suggestions announced by Moscow. A Lebanese official close to the Russian initiative said the government vacuum in Lebanon has hampered the Russian plan in the country.

Syria in a Week (26 November – 3 December 2018)

Syria in a Week (26 November – 3 December 2018)

The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.

 

Two Children Burned

3 December 2018

Two Syrian refugees, including one child, died early Monday as a result of a fire in their camp in the Lebanese town of al-Yamooneh, east of Lebanon, Deputy Mayor Hussein Sharif told the AFP. Sharif said that the fire “burned twenty-three tents out of seventy present in the camp. A forty-six-year-old man died and a child who is seven or eight years old.” He added that what sparked the fire is unclear, but it is suspected to be that someone had left a heater on at night or it could be an electric shortcut. He also clarified that “the explosion of a fuel container in one of the tents caused the fire to spread.”

Security forces arrived at the scene and the UN sent a team to the camp, according to Sharif. One of the refugees told the AFP: “at three in the morning, we heard screaming. Then we saw flames (spreading) and we couldn’t put them out.”

Images showed the camp burned into ashes with nothing left other than poles. One of the images showed a girl looking in a pile of burned clothes, and another showed helpless young men looking at the destruction around them. Civil defense teams put the fire amid limited visibility due to fog and smoke, according to the official national media agency.

Fires have often erupted in Syrian refugee camps in recent years. Lebanon estimates the number of Syrian refugees within its territory around one and a half million, whereas the UN High Commission for Refugees puts the number at less than one million. Refugees live in harsh conditions and some live in unofficial camps. A big part of them relies on aid provided by humanitarian organizations. Camps, especially those in Bekaa east of Lebanon, are often subject to security raids.

After a raid on camps in the town of A’rsal, the Lebanese army arrested around four hundred Syrian refugees, including three hundred who had expired residency and thirty wanted under arrest warrants. Since the beginning of the year, the Lebanese General Security has been organizing group returns for refugees in coordination with Damascus. Eight thousand people have returned so far to Syrian areas where the battles stopped, according to a tally based on data from the General Security. The General Security said that tens of thousands of Syrians returned to Syria through trips coordinated with Damascus or on an individual level. Lebanese authorities waive late fines for those whose residency papers have expired if they decide to return to Syria.

 

Killing and Bombardment

3 December 2018

The US-led International coalition said that a prominent ISIS leader, responsible for the of execution of the US humanitarian worker Peter Kassig, was killed on Sunday in airstrikes carried out in the Syrian desert.  Coalition spokesman Colonel Sean Ryan said in an email “Coalition forces conducted precision strikes against a senior ISIS member, Abu al-Umarayn … responsible for the killing” of Kassig, who was kidnapped in Syria in 2013, and the jihadist group posted a video of his execution in November of 2014. Ryan confirmed that the jihadist had been indeed killed.

The strikes also targeted other members of the group in addition to Abu al-Umarayn, who was “involved and directly participated in the execution of numerous prisoners” held by the group. This is the first time the coalition announces the killing of a jihadist associated with the execution of Kassig since its aerial intervention against jihadists in Syria and Iraq in 2014. Ryan did not mention the jihadist’s role in the execution of Kassig.

The radical group had posted a video, on 17 November 2014, in which a masked man wearing black clothes and pointing at the head of a man at his feet said: “This is Peter Kassig, the American citizen.” Peter Kassig was a former US soldier who fought in Iraq, but he left the army and decided to dedicate his life to volunteer work. He worked in hospitals and clinics in Lebanon and Turkey that received Syrians who fled their country. He also worked in areas of disaster inside Syria. Kassig’s friends say he converted to Islam and took the name of Abdul Rahman. He was kidnapped in October 2013 while on a mission to transport humanitarian aid to Syria.

Before the coalition announced the killing of the prominent jihadist, Damascus accused it of launching missiles against Syrian army positions in the countryside of Homs, in the Syrian desert. The official Syrian news agency SANA said that “the US coalition forces launched around 8:00 pm (18:00 GMT) this evening several missiles against some positions of our forces in the Ghorab mountains south of Sukhna.” The head of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) Rami Abdul Rahman said that coalition forces stationed in the Tanf base near the border with Iraq launched “more than fourteen missiles” at a government forces convoy when it was travelling in the dessert in the eastern countryside of Homs. He added that the “convoy was lost in the desert about thirty-five kilometers from the Tanf base,” where US and British forces are deployed.

In a response to a question from AFP, Ryan denied targeting military positions for the Syrian army and described these reports as “mistaken,” stressing that the strikes in the desert targeted the jihadists responsible for the execution of Kassig. The international coalition had previously launched several strikes against government forces in the Tanf area in the Syrian desert and in Deir Azzor governorate, east of Syria.

In the past years, the international coalition killed hundreds of ISIS members, including several leaders such as the former group spokesman Abu Mohammed al-Adnani in 2016 and two other prominent members responsible for attacks abroad such as Salah Kormat and Sami Juddo.

A coalition airstrike in 2015 killed Mohammed Amwazi, the British Jihadist known as Jihadi John, who is believed to head the ISIS execution cell known as the Beatles, which is responsible for the beheading of several foreign hostages, including the two American journalists James Foley and Steven Sotloff. The coalition-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) arrested thousands of jihadists, including hundreds of foreign jihadists. In January, the SDF arrested Alexenda Koti and al-Shafee al-Sheikh, two British jihadists who were members of the Beatles.

Since 2014, the coalition has been launching airstrikes against ISIS positions in Iraq and Syria. The area that the jihadist group controls has been decreased to limited enclaves in the Syrian desert, mostly in the eastern countryside of Homs and Deir Azzor governorate in the east. The international coalition targets the last enclave under ISIS control in the eastern countryside of Deir Azzor near the Iraqi border with daily airstrikes. The SDF has been fighting battles to oust jihadists for three months. Government forces have been launching battles against ISIS pockets in the desert in the eastern countryside of Homs. However, analysts say that winning the battle against jihadists in Syria will take a long time for several reasons, the most important of which is the fighting experience that jihadists have gained and their will to fight until death in defense of their last stronghold.

 

A Candle for Syria’s Children

2 December 2018

The Vatican, 2 December 2018 (AFP).

Pope Francis lit a candle at the Vatican on Sunday for victims of conflicts around the world, and Syria in particular. “Advent is a time of hope. Right now, my hope is for peace for the children of Syria, tormented by a war that has lasted eight years,” he said. The Pope added: “I am lighting a candle along with the many Syrian children and believers across the world… Let these flames of hope dispel the shadows of war!”

The Candles for Peace in Syria Christmas initiative was launched by Aid to the Church in Need, a Catholic charity. The tall candle was decorated by a local craftsman from the Bab Touma neighborhood of Damascus and bore the photos of forty children, most of them from Aleppo. Syria’s war has killed more than three hundred and sixty thousand people and displaced millions, with over thirteen million people in the country in need of humanitarian aid.

 

Israeli Bombardment Once Again

29 November 2018

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that, on Thursday, Israeli planes launched airstrikes against targets in the countryside of Damascus as well as in locations in southern Syria, adding that Syrian air defenses fired heavily at the raiding planes. SOHR stated: “Israeli forces bombarded for an hour positions in the southern and southwestern suburbs of Damascus as well as south of Syria at the border of Quneitra governorate. Air defense systems were seen launching missiles intensely.”

Israeli sources claimed that the strikes, the first since Syria received the S-300 missile system, targeted “Iranian positions.” Damascus said that it launched rockets against “enemy targets.” Syrian official media did not initially mention Israel, describing the one-hour attack as “hostile,” and confirmed its failure.

In a letter to the UN Security Council and UN General Secretary on Friday, the Syrian Foreign Ministry condemned the “Israeli aggression” on al-Kisweh area south of Damascus. This is the first Israeli strike in Syria since Syrian air defenses mistakenly downed a Russian military plane during their response to Israeli rockets on 17 September. The SOHR chief Rami Abdul Rahman told the AFP that Israeli forces targeted “weapon depots for Hezbollah and Iranian forces” in al-Kisweh that were used to “temporarily store rockets.” He added: “It seemed that Israeli had intelligence information that new weapons arrived at the depots.”

The bombardment also targeted the area of Harfa in the governorate of Quneitra, south of Syria, which hosts a military base for the Syrian army. According to the SOHR, the Syrian air defense systems were seen launching missiles intensely in response to the Israeli bombardment and were able to down several rockets that did not reach their target. The official Syrian news agency SANA reported a military source as saying that Syrian defense systems engaged “enemy targets above al-Kisweh” in the countryside of Damascus and “downed” them, without stating the identity of the targets. SANA said that the “aggression … was not able to achieve any of its objectives despite its intensity, and all targets were engaged and downed.”

The Israeli army announced in a statement that none of its planes or “aerial targets” were hit, without confirming or denying targeting positions in Syria. The statement said that “Reports regarding an aircraft or an airborne Israeli target having been hit are false.” It said a surface-to-air missile was fired in the direction of an open area of the Syrian Golan Heights but it was unclear if it had fell in the part occupied by Israel.

The airstrikes did not result in any human casualties, according to preliminary reports from the SOHR. The Syrian foreign ministry said that the “repeated Israeli aggressions” are “further evidence of Israeli support to the armed terrorist groups in Syria and an attempt to prolong the crisis in Syria.” Since the beginning of the crisis in Syria in 2011, Israel has repeatedly bombed military targets for the Syrian army and others for Hezbollah and Iranian fighters in Iran. Israel rarely comments on its targeting of Syria, however, in September it announced that it had launched two hundred airstrikes in Syria in eighteen months against mostly Iranian targets.

An Israeli strike in May targeted a weapons depot for the Iranian revolutionary guard in al-Kisweh, according to Israel. It also targeted military positions in this area in 2017, including a weapon depot. Thursday was the first time that Syrian defense system fired on aerial targets after the 17 September incidents when this system mistakenly downed a Russian military plane during an Israeli airstrike, which killed fifteen Russian soldiers. The Russian army accused Israeli pilots of using the Russian plane as a covert to evade Syrian defenses, but Israel denied that, confirming that the Russian plane was hit after its planes had gone back to Israeli airspace.

Russia announced that it would take security measures to protect its army in Syria, including the reinforcement of Syrian air defense systems through the deployment of the S-300 system and scrambling communications for planes that come near. In October, Moscow announced that it had delivered this system to Syria, but it is unknown if the system was used in response to the attack on Thursday. Damascus said that this system would force Israel to take “precise calculations” before carrying out new strikes. Israel has reiterated that it would continue to confront what its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as Iran’s attempt to cement its military presence in Syria and send advanced weapons to the Lebanese Hezbollah. Since the Russian military intervention in Syria in 2015, which immensely contributed to government forces retaking control of vast areas in the country and achieving consecutive victories, Moscow has established a “non-friction” mechanism with Israel.

 

New Ministers

29 November 2018

New ministers in the government took the constitutional oath in front of the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Thursday. According to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA), the new ministers are: Brigadier General Mohammed Khaled al-Rahmoun as minister of interior, Engineer Mohammed Rami Radwan Martini as minister of tourism, Imad Mowafq al-A’zeb as minister of education, Bassam Bashir Ibrahim as minister of higher education, Engineer Suhail Mohammed Abullatif as minister for public work and housing, Engineer Eyad Mohammed al-Khatib as minister of communication and technology, and Engineer Mohammed Ma’en Zein al-A’bideen Jathbah as minister of Industry.

President Assad then presided a full government cabinet meeting and talked about the priorities in the upcoming stage and the pivotal role of fighting corruption. The Syrian president made a cabinet reshuffle, on 26 November, that included nine ministers, the most prominent of which is the interior minister. According to SANA, Assad dissolved the ministry of reconciliation, which was established in 2012, and formed a public establishment of administrational nature called the National Reconciliation Establishment based in Damascus and affiliated with the prime minister. This is the third cabinet reshuffle of Prime Minister Imad Khamis’s government, who was appointed in 2016.

 

“Missed Opportunity”

29 November 2018

The UN Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura expressed his regret of the “missed opportunity” in the efforts to reach a political solution in Syria at the end of the Astana talk, which did not achieve progress in ending the conflict in the country. De Mistura, who announced his resignation last month, ended his term as a special envoy for peace efforts with the two day talks in Kazakhstan’s capital that saw the participation of Russia and Iran – allies of the Syrian government – and
Turkey, which supports opposition factions. A statement from his office noted he regretted that “no tangible progress in overcoming the ten-month stalemate on the composition of the constitutional committee.” It also mentioned that the meeting in Astana was “a missed opportunity to accelerate the establishment of a credible, balanced and inclusive, Syrian-owned, Syrian-led, UN-facilitated constitutional committee.”

The two-day negotiations that concluded on Thursday, are the eleventh in Astana since Moscow began a diplomatic push in early 2017 that effectively side-lined other talks on Syria led by the United Nations. The Astana process has solidified Moscow’s role, and its military intervention in the fall of 2015 allowed for the changing of the field situation in favor of the Syrian government. De Mistura leaves his position at the end of November after four years of fruitless meditation. The constitutional committee seeks to draft a new constitution for Syria, however, Damascus objected to the formation presented by the UN.

After the talks, the Russian negotiator Alexander Lavrentiev said that the committee is of “great importance,” and added: “I am pleased to say that we are getting near the desired objective,” but he did not specify any date. The talks began on Wednesday and specifically addressed the truce agreement in Idlib, the last stronghold for the opposition and jihadists in Syria, whose fate was threatened after a suspected chemical attack in Aleppo on Saturday, which prompted Russia to launch air strikes on the buffer zone near the governorate.

The air strikes on Sunday come after more than one hundred people suffered breathing difficulties in government-held Aleppo which came under bombardment with “poison gas,” according to the official Syrian media. Russia – ally of Damascus – accused “terrorist groups in the demilitarized zone of using chemical weapons that contain chlorine gas in bombarding the city of Aleppo.”

Around two months ago, Russia and Turkey reached an agreement on establishing a demilitarized zone in Idlib and its surrounding that runs 15 to 20 kilometers deep, after Damascus hinted for weeks that it would launch a wide military operation in the area, which is considered the last stronghold for opposition and jihadist factions in Syria. The demilitarized zone is located at the front lines between government forces and opposition and jihadist factions. It includes parts of Idlib governorate and areas in the western countryside of Aleppo, northern countryside of Hama, and the northeastern countryside of Lattakia.

The Russian-Turkish agreement came after the Syrian government forces regained control of over two-thirds of the country in the past three years, as a result of the Russian support. There are still two main areas that are outside government control: Idlib and its surrounding, where Turkey has influence and the areas controlled by the US-supported Kurds northeast of the country.

The Astana talks have distanced the United States and other Western country from efforts related to Syria. A joint statement by the three co-sponsors raised the issue of continued US military presence in Syria. The sponsoring countries “reject all attempts to create new facts on the ground under the pretext of fighting terrorism,” the statement said.

Earlier this week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused the United States of using the presence of the Islamic State in southern Syria as a pretext to keep its forces deployed there. The United States had attended previous Astana meetings as an observer, but last week, the US Special Envoy to Syria James Jeffrey ruled out Washington’s participation in this round.

A new round of talks on Syria in Astana is expected to be held early February, according to the statement. Syria has witnessed since 2011 a destructive conflict that killed over three hundred and sixty thousand people and displaced half the population inside and outside the country.

 

“New Reality”?

3 December 2018

The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Washington once again of deliberately working to “establish a new reality east of the Euphrates,” and said that US actions clearly violated the principle of Syria’s integral territory. In a press conference, Lavrov criticized western policies in Syria and said that “they do not have a strategy unlike the approach Moscow has taken.” He added: “The truth is becoming more evident as time goes by. What is happening on the eastern bank of the Euphrates river is unacceptable and will have very grave consequences.”

Lavrov said that the United States is trying to create “alternative government institutions” in these areas and has allocated millions of dollars to reconstruct these areas, but at the same time, it refuses reconstruction in areas under government control. He described what is going on east of the Euphrates as a “clear violation of Syria’s territorial integrity as declared by all and confirmed in the UN Security Council’s resolution.”

Lavrov said that “one of the main component of US policy in Syria is using the Kurdish card,” warning that this is “a very dangerous game given the sensitivity of the Kurdish issue in the region, that is not only for Syria, but also for Iraq, Iran, and Turkey.” The minister said the Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed this topic on the second day of the G20 summit and confirmed their commitment to the Russian-Turkish agreement on Idlib. “Extremist militants have not met the demand to withdraw twenty kilometers behind the demilitarized zone despite Ankara’s efforts in this regard.”

The minister said that Putin and Erdogan agreed to take future steps to ensure the implementation of the agreement to establish this zone, and thwart attempts by extremists to undermine it. Lavrov stressed that most countries now acknowledge that the Syrian constitutional committee, which is being formed through an initiative by the Astana sponsors (Russia, Turkey, and Iran), represents “the only mechanism that would allow for the implementation of UN Security Resolution 2254 which stipulates that all Syrians sit at the negotiating table.” Lavrov said that in the past years, Moscow did not see that Western powers offer any alternative constructive strategy to the “Astana process” in regards to fighting terrorism in Syria, creating conditions for the return of refugees, providing humanitarian assistance, and constructing the political process in the country.