بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | فبراير 6, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Sochi Results in a Constitutional Committee with UN Sponsorship
4 February 2018
The Syrian National Dialogue Conference in Sochi stirred heated controversy over the possibility of its convening and its role in reaching a gateway to a political solution.
A number of opposition forces, including the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), boycotted the meeting; and a delegation from the armed opposition factions, which came after “encouragement” from Ankara, withdrew upon its arrival at the airport, commissioning the Turkish delegation to represent it. UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura attended the conference. The United States and France criticized the conference, attending as observers. The Russian-Turkish concord seemed to have contributed to the conference not being abated.
The conference concluded with a statement focused on the formation of a Constitutional Committee comprised of the Syrian government delegation and a widely-representative opposition delegation. Its task will be to draft constitutional reforms that contribute to a political settlement according to Security Council Resolution 2254, with de Mistura supervising over this committee. The statement stressed that “Syria is a democratic non-sectarian state that is based on equal citizenship,” while emphasizing independence and the unity of its people and land. The final statement also focused on holding democratic elections that will enable the Syrian people to decide their own future.
The Syrian government welcomed the outcomes of the conference with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stating that the conference constitutes an important step in the political process and a foundation for any future negotiations. Despite the boycott of the HNC due to the Russian bias, which oversees the conference, toward the regime and the fear that it is merely an attempt to circumvent the role of the UN in Geneva, the HNC’s president Nar al-Hariri welcomed the outcomes of the conference provided that they coincide with Security Council resolutions and guarantee a political transition process in Syria.
There was evidently close coordination as the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed their satisfaction over the outcomes of the Sochi conference during a phone call between the two. In concord with the Russian stance on the settlement in Syria, Turkey withdrew its insistence on the departure of President Bashar al-Assad, declaring that he must leave “at some point” and stressing the priority of a “political transition” that leads to a new constitution and elections. (Reuters, al-Jazeera, the Middle East, al-Hayat)
Not So Rapid Olive Branch
The Olive Branch Operation launched by Turkey in cooperation with Syrian opposition factions in Afrin, which is controlled by People’s Protection Units (YPG), continues to this day. The battles do not seem to be heading for a quick resolution, with slow Turkish advancement and no major breakthroughs so far. The operation has left hundreds dead including civilians, according to Interfax agency. The head of the main hospital in Afrin stated on Wednesday that supplies are running short, with the hospital receiving forty-eight dead and eighty-six injured since the onset of the attack. (Reuters)
Erdogan said that the Turkish army “started controlling hills… and is advancing toward Afrin,” in reference to the near end of the operation. The Turkish Anadolu News Agency reported that the number of Turkish soldiers killed in the Olive Branch Operation on Saturday reached seven. This brings the total toll of Turkish military losses to fourteen deaths, which reveals the ferocity of the fighting going on. (AFP)
Saraqeb Battle … and Shooting Down of a Russian Jet
3 February 2018
Regime forces are rapidly advancing towards Saraqeb city after controlling Abu al-Duhur city and its military airport. The forces are heading for Saraqeb, as they have taken over a number of villages and towns in the last few days.
Saraqeb witnessed fierce bombardment that resulted in civilian casualties, in addition to the targeting of Oday Hospital in the city, which was condemned by the UN. The Regional Humanitarian Coordinator for the Syria Crisis Panos Moumtzis said that this was the fourth time in ten days in which air strikes have resulted in major structural damage in a hospital in Saraqeb. Moumtzis stated that last year witnessed one hundred and eleven documented attacks on medical facilities in Syria, in addition to at least thirteen attacks so far in 2018.
On the other hand, a Russian pilot was killed in a ground exchange of fire with Islamic opposition factions after his fighter jet was shot down in Idlib governorate northwest of Syria. Tahrir al-Sham claimed responsibility for the downing of the plane. After this incident, the Russian army declared that it hit the area where the plane fell with ‘high precision weapons’ and confirmed that it had killed “more than thirty fighters from al-Nusra Front” in this strike. (AFP, the Middle East)
Chemical Weapons Again
3 February 2018
Senior US officials said on Thursday that the Syrian government may be in the last stages of developing new types of chemical weapons, and that President Donald Trump’s administration is ready to take military action once more against Syrian government forces, if there is a need to deter it from using such weapons.
Defense Minister Jim Mattis said the Syrian government repeatedly used chlorine gas as a weapon. A day earlier, Washington said it is ready to consider taking military action if there is a need to deter the Syrian government from launching attacks using chemical weapons.
The Syrian Foreign Ministry denied US allegations that its forces had used chemical weapons in Eastern Ghouta near Damascus against opponents who hold control of it, stating that these allegations are baseless lies. Moscow accused Washington of seeking to “demonize” Damascus and “cripple a political solution”.
The previous US administration considered the use of chemical weapons a “red line”, and threatened military strikes after chemical weapons were used in Ghouta in 2013. The pressure resulted in the handing over of Syrian chemical weapons to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons in 2013 and 2014. The chemical weapons issue resurfaced after they were used in Khan Sheikhon, after which the current US administration launched a military strike against al-Shoa’irat military airport in Homs, Syria.
The “red line” seems to include sarin only and not chlorine, according to an American official. (Reuters)
بواسطة Ibrahim Hamidi | فبراير 5, 2018 | News, غير مصنف
Neither Damascus’ participation — with a delegation of about 1,200 people — nor the boycott of the opposition High Negotiations Committee of the Sochi peace talks were not enough to change the outcome of the conference, as the active negotiations were going on in rooms and side tracks without Syrians, where the three “guarantor” countries — Russia, Iran and Turkey — agreed with the United Nations to formulate a closing statement, with each country nominating 50 members to the constitutional committee to be blessed by the international envoy Staffan de Mistura, resembling a tripartite division of the future Syrian constitution.
The Syrian government delegation could not take responsibility for the failure of Sochi, which was overseen by President Vladimir Putin ahead of the presidential elections on March 18. Damascus was angered by the conference’s results, one of the manifestations of which was that all the official and loyalist media in the Syrian capital published the closing statement without its introduction or political summary, and distorted the official document agreed upon by the guarantors’ statement.
According to information obtained by Asharq al-Awsat, Sochi’s results were achieved before the beginning of the conference, as marathon talks were held between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres at the end of last week, after the opposition High Negotiations Committee decided to boycott the conference. The United Nations tied its participation to a series of conditions, including that the conference was limited to a single session without forming institutions or committees, or repeating the scenario of the series of Astana meetings, in addition to the international envoy deciding the references, names and mechanisms of the constitutional committee process and selecting its members from a list submitted by the three guarantor countries, while also approving the 12 political principles which de Mistura had prepared and the head of the government delegation, Bashar al-Jaafari, had refused to discuss in the previous two rounds of Geneva talks.
The positive surprise was that the agreement between the United Nations and Moscow was realized. Attempts were made to change the text of the draft agreed upon but they did not succeed, especially when de Mistura raised the possibility of pulling out the morning of the opening. Therefore, in practice the objections and demands from members of the delegation coming from Damascus and the boycott of members of the armed groups and their return from the Sochi airport to Ankara did not have an impact, as the Turkish delegation undertook to speak in the opposition’s name, while Tehran and Moscow spoke for Damascus.
The Iranian news agency IRNA and the official Syrian news agency SANA yesterday published a closing statement for Sochi according to their interpretations, with the statement devoid of the introduction and summary which discuss a mechanism for forming the constitutional committee. SANA reported that “it was agreed that the ratio in the committee to discuss the current constitution was three supported by the government and three for other parties, with the committee comprised of 150 members, delegates to the Syrian-Syrian National Dialogue conference, with a chairman, his deputy and the secretary-general selected from the composition of the committee.” According to SANA’s interpretation, committee members shall take “a majority vote about the need for assistance from experts by way of offering consultation to the committee members.”
SANA also altered the closing statement, reporting that “it stressed the importance of preserving the army and armed forces and that it carry out its duties in accordance with the constitution, including protecting the national borders and people from foreign threats, and to fight terrorism to protect the citizens, wherever required, and for security and intelligence institutions to focus on preserving national security and working in accordance with the law.” The official document of the Sochi conference stipulated “building a strong army based on efficiency and carrying out its duties in accordance with the constitution” and that “the national security and intelligence agencies work to protect the country’s security in accordance with the principles of rule of law and protecting human rights according to the text of the constitution and the law, and the use of force must be limited to authorization from the relevant state institutions.”
This position reflected anger in Damascus at the results of the conference, for which officials tried to place red lines before participants traveled from the Syrian capital to the Russian resort city, compared with Iranian silence and partial publishing of the closing statement. A Western official said that Tehran “surprised those in attendance by accepting the statement in Sochi” before pointing to the Iranian media publishing the Damascus interpretation of the statement.
In contrast, Ankara announced its satisfaction with the conference’s results through a call between presidents Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Turkish Foreign Ministry also issued a statement on its results and the “constructive approach.” A Turkish official said: “The most important results of the conference were the call for establishing a constitutional committee and selection of a group composed of 150 nominees for this committee, as the Turkish delegation which had been authorized to represent opposition groups that did not attend the conference submitted a list of 50 nominees in consultation with the opposition.” It is expected that de Mistura will form the constitution committee “seeking proportional representation of the opposition” and Ankara “will closely monitor the process of establishing the constitutional committee as a guarantor for the opposition.”
Western countries which participated as observers are monitoring the coming phase and the extent Moscow fulfills the results of the conference and uses its influence over Damascus and Tehran, which want to buy time until after Putin’s election on March 18 for Moscow to officially present a list of 150 nominees to de Mistura in order to begin his process of selection 45-50 members from the list of the guarantors, experts and politicians from abroad.
[This article was republished translated and edited by The Syrian Observer]
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | فبراير 5, 2018 | Media Roundups, Syria in a Week, غير مصنف
سوتشي ينتج لجنة دستورية برعاية أممية!
4 شباط (فبراير)
أثار “مؤتمر الحوار الوطني السوري” في مدينة سوتشي الكثير من الجدل حول أمكانية انعقاده ودوره في الوصول إلى مدخل لاتفاق سياسي.
اذ قاطع عدد من قوى المعارضة الاجتماع بما فيها “الهيئة العليا للمفاوضات”٫ وانسحب من المطار وفد من فصائل المعارضة المسلحة الذي حضر بـ “تشجيع” آنقرة وفوض الوفد التركي بتمثيله في المؤتمر. كما شارك المبعوث الأممي الخاص ستيفان دي ميستورا في المؤتمر. وانتقدت الولايات المتحدة وفرنسا المؤتمر وحضر بعضها بصفة مراقب. وظهر أن التوافق الروسي – التركي ساهم في عدم انفراط عقد المؤتمر.
خلص المؤتمر إلى اصدار بيان ركز على تأليف لجنة دستورية تتشكل من وفد الحكومة السورية ووفد معارض واسع التمثيل، ذلك بغرض صياغة إصلاح دستوري يسهم في التسوية السياسية وذلك وفقاً لقرار مجلس الأمن رقم 2254، وسيشرف دي ميستورا على اللجنة الدستورية. وركز البيان على أن “سوريا دولة ديمقراطية غير طائفية قائمة على المواطنة المتساوية”، مشدداً على استقلالِها ووحدتها شعباً وأرضاً. كما ركز البيان الختامي على القيام بانتخابات ديمقراطية حتى يقرر الشعب السوري مستقبل بلده.
وكانت الحكومة السورية قد رحبت بنتائج المؤتمر. وأشارت وزارة الخارجية أن المؤتمر يشكل خطوة هامة في المسار السياسي وأساساً لأي مفاوضات مقبلة. وبالرغم من مقاطعة “الهيئة العليا” للمؤتمر بسبب انحياز الجانب الروسي المشرف على المؤتمر لجانب النظام، بالإضافة للخشية من أنه محاولة للالتفاف على دور الأمم المتحدة في جنيف، فان رئيس “الهيئة” نصر الحريري رحب بمخرجات المؤتمر شريطة أن تتوافق مع قرار مجلس الأمن وضمان عملية الانتقال السياسي في سوريا.
بدا ان هناك تنسيقاً وثيقاً اذ عبر الرئيسان الروسي فلاديمير بوتين والتركي رجب طيب اردوغان عن رضاهما عن نتائج مؤتمر سوتشي في مكالمة هاتفية بينهما. وفي تناغم مع الموقف الروسي من التسوية في سورية، تراجعت تركيا عن إصرارها على رحيل الرئيس بشار الأسد، وأعلنت أن عليه الرحيل «في مرحلة ما»، مشددة على أولوية «انتقال سياسي» يؤدي إلى دستور جديد وانتخابات.
رويترز، الجزيرة، الشرق الأوسط، الحياة
“غصن الزيتون” غير الخاطفة
4 شباط (فبراير)
استمرت عملية “غضن الزيتون” التي تشنها تركيا بالتعاون مع فصائل في المعارضة السورية على منطقة عفرين التي تسيطر عليها “وحدات حماية الشعب” الكردية. ولا تبدو المعارك تسير إلى حسم سريع فالتقدم التركي بطيء ولا اختراقات كبرى حتى الآن. لكن العملية أدت حتى الآن إلى قتل المئات بينهم مدنيون بحسب وكالة انترفاكس. وذكر مدير المستشفى الرئيسي بمدينة عفرين الأربعاء إن الإمدادات آخذة في التناقص في المستشفى الذي استقبل 48 قتيلا و86 جريحا منذ بداية الهجمات. (رويترز)
وقال إردوغان إن الجيش التركي “بدأ السيطرة على الجبال… ويتقدم حالياً نحو عفرين”، في إشارة إلى قرب انتهاء العملية. وذكرت وكالة الأناضول للأنباء أنه بهذا الهجوم يبلغ عدد قتلى الجنود الأتراك سبعة السبت في إطار عملية “غصن الزيتون”. وبذلك ترتفع الحصيلة الاجمالية لخسائر الجيش التركي الى 14 قتيلا مما يشير إلى المواجهات الشرسة خلال العملية. (فرانس برس)
معركة سراقب… وإسقاط مقاتلة روسية
3 شباط (فبراير)
فرانس برس، الشرق الأوسط
تتقدم قوات النظام بشكل متسارع باتجاه مدينة سراقب حيث تمكنت القوات من السيطرة على مدينة أبو الضهور بعد السيطرة على المطار العسكري واتجهت نحو مدينة سراقب وسيطرت خلال الأيام القيلة الماضية على العديد من القرى والبلدات.
وتعرضت مدينة سراقب لقصف عنيف مما أدى إلى ضحايا بين المدنيين إضافة إلى استهداف مستشفى عدي في المدينة الأمر الذي أدانته الأمم المتحدة. وقال بانوس مومسيس منسق الشؤون الإنسانية الإقليمي للأمم المتحدة المعني بالأزمة السورية أن هذه كانت المرة الرابعة في عشرة أيام، التي تسببت فيها ضربات جوية في أضرار هيكلية كبيرة بمستشفى في سراقب. وأوضح مومسيس، أن العام الماضي شهد 112 هجوماً موثقا على منشآت صحية في سوريا، فضلا ًعن 13 هجوماً على الأقل حتى الآن خلال 2018.
في إطار هذه العملية، قُتل طيار روسي السبت بعدما اسقطت مقاتلته في محافظة ادلب شمال غربي سوريا، وإثر اشتباكه مع عناصر من الفصائل الاسلامية المعارضة على الأرض فيما أعلنت هيئة تحرير الشام مسؤوليتها عن إسقاط الطائرة. وأعلن الجيش الروسي اثر اسقاط المقاتلة انه قصف “بأسلحة فائقة الدقة” المنطقة التي سقطت فيها الطائرة مؤكدا انه قتل “اكثر من 30 مقاتلا من جبهة النصرة” خلال هذه الضربة.
“الكيماوي” مجدداً
3 شباط (فبراير)
(رويترز)
قال مسؤولون أميركيون بارزون يوم الخميس إن الحكومة السورية ربما تكون في مرحلة تطوير أنواع جديدة من الأسلحة الكيماوية وإن إدارة الرئيس دونالد ترامب مستعدة للقيام بعمل عسكري مجددا ضد قوات الحكومة السورية إذا اقتضت الضرورة لردعها عن استخدام هذه الأسلحة.
وقال وزير الدفاع الأمريكي جيم ماتيس إن الحكومة السورية استخدمت مراراً غاز الكلور كسلاح. وقبل ذلك بيوم قالت واشنطن إنها مستعدة لبحث اتخاذ إجراء عسكري إذا اقتضت الضرورة لردع الحكومة السورية عن شن هجمات بأسلحة كيماوية.
ونفت وزارة الخارجية السورية السبت اتهامات أمريكية بأن قواتها استخدمت أسلحة كيماوية في الغوطة الشرقية قرب دمشق ضد المعارضين الذين يسيطرون عليها قائلة إن الاتهامات أكاذيب لا دليل عليها. واتهمت موسكو واشنطن بالعمل لـ “شيطنة” دمشق و “افشال الحل السياسي”.
وكانت الإدارة الأميركية السابقة اعتبرت أن استخدام السلاح الكيماوي “خط أحمر”، وهددت بضربة عسكرية بعد استخدام السلاح الكيماوي في الغوطة 2013، ونجم عن الضغط تسليم السلاح الكيماوي السوري إلى منظمة حظر انتشار الأسلحة الكيماوية في عامي 2013 و2014. وتجدد قضية الكيماوي بعد استخدامه في خان شيخون وعلى إثرها قامت الإدارة الأمريكية الحالية بتوجيه ضربة عسكرية لمطار الشعيرات العسكري في حمص.
ويبدو ان “الخط الأحمر” يشمل فقط السارين وليس الكلور، بحسب مسؤول أميركي.
بواسطة Media Roundup Editors | فبراير 1, 2018 | Media Roundups
[This is a roundup of news articles and other materials circulating on Syria and reflects a wide variety of opinions. It does not reflect the views of the Media Roundup Editors or of Salon Syria. You may send your own recommendations for inclusion in each week’s roundup to info@SalonSyria.com by Monday night of every week.]
Inside Syria
Syrian Druze wary of Hezbollah, Iranian presence (16 January 2018) Since the Syrian war erupted, Iran has been trying to gain a foothold in Syria, most recently in the south, which includes trying to win over the local Druze community.
IS families lose their homes in Syria’s Akhtarin (18 January 2018) The local council of Akhtarin, in the Aleppo countryside, is confiscating the properties of former IS and regime fighters to benefit victims of the war.
The Arabic version of this article can be found here: درع الفرات… المجلس المحلّيّ في أخترين يصادر أملاك الأشخاص الذين انضمّوا إلى صفوف قوّات النظام وتنظيم الدولة الإسلاميّة وقاتلوا في صفوفهما
‘Afrin is a cemetery of Erdogan’: Syrian Kurds vow to resist Turkey (18 January 2018) Thousands of Kurds march to condemn Turkish preparations to invade Syrian canton of Afrin, and vow to defend themselves to the last.
Israel’s “Safe Zone” Is Creeping Farther Into Syria (23 January 2018) Nour Samaha discusses how Israel is expanding its influence and control deeper into opposition-held southern Syria.
Defeated in Syria, ISIS Fighters Held in Camps Still Pose a Threat (24 January 2018) Eric Schmitt writes “American-backed Kurdish militias in northern Syria are detaining hundreds of Islamic State fighters and family members in makeshift camps, raising fears among United States military officials of potentially creating a breeding ground for extremists — repeating a key security mistake of the Iraq war.”
Air strikes kill at least 13 in east Syrian Islamic State territory: reports (25 January 2018) Air strikes on a village held by Islamic State in the eastern part of Syria’s Deir al-Zor province killed at least 13 people including seven women.
Turkish operations on Syrian border to extend as far as Iraq, Erdogan says (26 January 2018) President Tayyip Erdogan on Friday promised to sweep militants from the length of Turkey’s Syrian frontier, saying that Ankara could extend its current military operation in northwest Syria all the way east to the border with Iraq.
Al-Jaafari: Informal paper on reviving political process in Geneva is totally rejected (26 January 2018) Syria has rejected in full the informal paper on reviving the political process in Geneva because it contradicts international resolutions and aims to undermine the Geneva talks and the Sochi Congress.
Ceasefire takes effect in Syria’s Eastern Ghouta (27 January 2018) A Russian-negotiated ceasefire has gone into effect in Syria’s Eastern Ghouta, the last remaining rebel stronghold near the capital, Damascus.
Afrin: Turkey battles Kurds over key mountain (28 January 2018) Turkey is battling to take a key mountain in northern Syria, as it steps up its offensive against US-backed Kurdish fighters in the Afrin region.
Idlib: Dozens killed in Syrian government air raids (29 January 2018) At least 23 civilians have been killed in air raids launched by Syrian government warplanes as part of an ongoing offensive to gain ground in Idlib province from opposition fighters, according to a war monitor.
“When the SDF was shocked”- An Azaz Activist’s Perspective on the Afrin Operations (30 January 2018) Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi interviews Abd al-Qadir Abu Yusuf, a well-connected independent media activist based in the key rebel-held north Aleppo countryside town of Azaz and who is a supporter of the ‘Olive Branch’ operations against the SDF in Afrin.
Turkish shelling destroys iconic Iron Age temple in Syrian Kurdistan (30 January 2018) Turkish bombardment of Syria’s northwest Kurdish-held region of Afrin has severely damaged the temple of Ain Dara. A report by Kurdistan 24 correspondent Akram Salih.
Iconic Ancient Temple Is Latest Victim in Civil War (30 January 2018) A Turkish airstrike destroyed much of the temple on Friday during an attack on the Kurdish-held area south of the city of Afrin, according to the Syrian Ministry of Culture and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Photos and video from the Syrian Observatory and Hawar News confirm that more than half of the temple is gone, including many of the sculptures that ringed the site.
UPDATE: Ain Dara (30 January 2018) Between January 20 and January 22, 2018 the Turkish Air Force conducted an airstrike on the Early Iron Age temple at Tell Ain Dara, an archaeological site located ca. 5.8 km south of Afrin in Aleppo Governorate. The temple is an important example of Syro-Hittite religious architecture and the most extensively excavated structure of its kind in Syria.
Regional and International Perspectives
Turkish Hands Redraw the Economic Map of Aleppo’s Countryside (19 January 2018) Turkey has worked to implement future plans for the region in numerous fields, including security, economy and the development of services.
Turkey upends US Syria strategy with attack on YPG (22 January 2018) Ankara seeks green light from Moscow, not Washington, in attack on US partner; UN warns of consequences of continued fighting in Eastern Ghouta and Idlib; local council in Aleppo confiscates land of Islamic State families.
The Arabic version of this article can be found here:تركيا تقلب استراتيجيّة الولايات المتّحدة في سوريا رأسًا على عقب بهجومها على وحدات حماية الشعب
A New Decision To Go To War In Syria (22 January 2018) Paul R. Pillar writes “The Trump administration is having U.S. troops participate indefinitely in someone else’s civil war, for reasons that are quite different from the original stated objective of helping to quash the so-called caliphate of the Islamic State (ISIS or IS).”
US’ Mattis sees risk in Turkey’s operation in Syria (23 January 2018) U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has called on Turkey to show restraint in its military incursion in northern Syria, warning that violence on the border could create a vacuum for ISIS and Al Qaeda militants.
By moving into Syria, Turkey is risking its own national security (23 January 2018) The Turkish authorities should long ago have realized that the Kurdish issue can only be solved in the longer term through some form of political settlement.
Turkey’s Afrin Offensive and America’s Future in Syria (23 January 2018) Aaron Stein explores how will Washington manage Bashar al-Assad’s victory and how will the United States get out of Syria?
Syrian opposition says will boycott Russia-brokered peace talks in Sochi (26 January 2018) The Syrian opposition will not attend a peace conference Russia is hosting next week dismissing the meeting as an attempt by the Syrian government’s close ally to “sideline” the current United Nations peace process.
Western, Arab states sidestep Assad fate in Syria proposals (26 January 2018) Five Western and Arab states that have backed the rebellion against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad make no reference to his future in a document proposing changes to U.N.-led talks, an apparent recognition of his strong position in the conflict.
Tillerson says Washington, Europe start work on Iran nuclear deal (27 January 2018) U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that working groups on fixing what the U.S. sees as flaws in the Iranian nuclear deal have already begun to meet, trying to determine the scope of what is needed and how much Iran needs to be engaged in it.
Syria opposition rejects Sochi constitution plan (30 January 2018) Participants of a Russia-hosted conference for peace in Syria have agreed to set up a commission to rewrite the war-torn country’s constitution.
Turkish delegation will represent Syrian opposition at Syria congress, MFA sources say (30 January 2018) According to sources from the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Turkish delegation will represent the Syrian opposition at the Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Russia’s Sochi.
Russian Syria peace talks achieve little beyond further division as fighting continues in Afrin (30 January 2018) Clashes, boycotts and one group refusing to leave the airport – the lack of movement towards an end to the Syrian civil war has become a sadly familiar motif.
Policy and Reports
America Quietly Starts Nation-Building in Parts of Syria (18 January 2018) The U.S. has escalated its presence in the country and has signaled no timetable for when it will end.
How ISIS’ Strategy Is Evolving (18 January 2018) Michael P. Dempsey discusses What the U.S. can do to counter the group’s shifting tactics that increasingly prefers to conduct isolated suicide attacks and hit-and-run operations.
Syrians in US fear Trump may end their ‘protected status’ (19 January 2018) About 6,900 Syrians reside in US under Temporary Protected Status, which does not count them as visa-holding immigrants or refugees
Confidential Sunni-Alawite Meeting in Berlin Summarized in Eleven-Item Document (22 January 2018) Blueprint outlining ‘social contract’ for Syria’s future developed by delegates from various ethnic, religious and sectarian groups.
Sochi talks to form ‘unified Syrian army and government’ (23 January 2018) Russian brokered talks on Syria will demand the formation of a unified army and national unity, a leaked Russian document obtained by Asharq Al Awsat newspaper said.
New American strategy for Syria could be doomed as allies of U.S. fight each other (27 January 2018) Louisa Loveluck, Liz Sly and Kareem Fahim writes “Turkey’s assault against Kurdish militants in Syria has exposed the limitations of the Trump administration’s new Syria policy, calling into question the feasibility of Washington’s plans to maintain a military presence in that country without becoming embroiled in a wider conflict.”
Exclusive: Tests link Syrian government stockpile to largest sarin attack – sources (30 January 2018) The Syrian government’s chemical weapons stockpile has been linked for the first time by laboratory tests to the largest sarin nerve agent attack of the civil war, diplomats and scientists told Reuters.
These Syrians could face deportation if the Trump administration stops protecting them (30 January 2018) Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen must decide by Wednesday whether to extend or end “temporary protected status,” or TPS, for roughly 6,000 Syrians.
With government flags flying in Sochi, opposition delegation leaves in protest, citing ‘unfulfilled promises’(30 January 2018) A delegation of Syrian opposition representatives departed the Black Sea city of Sochi in protest on Tuesday, refusing to attend Russian-sponsored peace talks as deadly airstrikes continued to pound rebel-held Idlib province.
Documentaries, Special Reports, and Other Media
2010 Atlantic City High School grad now ISIS commander (19 January 2018) A Margate native who graduated from Atlantic City High School in 2010 is now a senior commander and fighter in the Islamic State, or ISIS, in Syria.
Failed Marriages to Foreign Fighters Leave Children as Orphans Without Lineage (19 January 2018) Zeitoun speaks with several Syrian women whose children are not recognized by authorities due to their connection with foreign-born Islamist fighters
At beloved falafel shop, Syrians get taste of pre-war Raqqa (20 January 2018) The al-Malik falafel restaurant, a culinary institution serving the city center for 40 years, finally reopened in early January to bring some color back to Raqqa.
Why is Turkey attacking Syria? (20 January 2018) Turkish war planes have launched airstrikes on Kurdish positions in northern Syria.
Syrian regime routinely bombs civilians in Eastern Ghouta (23 January 2018) The BBC has obtained shocking footage from the besieged area of Eastern Ghouta in Syria where 200 people have been killed in the last two weeks, including 50 children.
Angelina Jolie meets Syrian refugees, calls for end to war (28 January 2018) Angelina Jolie visited a camp for Syrian refugees in Jordan on Sunday, calling for a political solution to Syria’s war and saying that “humanitarian aid is not a long-term solution.”
Fitness tracker Strava lights up military base (29 January 2018) Online fitness tracker Strava appears to show the structure of foreign military bases in countries like Syria and Afghanistan, as soldiers move around inside.
Maps
The Carter Center: Syria Conflict Mapping Project Reports (Jan. 18-24, 2018 | Weekly Conflict Summary) During this reporting period, a new Turkish-led offensive (dubbed Operation Olive Branch) began attacking territory controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF, a Kurdish-led organization in Syria’s north). Pro-government forces and ISIS forces at the southwestern frontiers of the opposition-held Idleb pocket once again took significant territory from opposition forces in the area. Bombardment on opposition-held Eastern Ghouta by pro-government forces also continued, though there have been no advances on these fronts.
TURKEY’S NEXT PHASE IN AFRIN, SYRIA (23 January 2018) The Institute for the Study of War’s January 23 map depicts a possible course of action that would achieve Turkey’s likely operational objectives. Those objectives are to secure the Syrian-Turkish border, isolate Afrin city, seize the Mennagh airbase, secure ground lines of communication, and establish a new forward line of troops to serve as a future “de-escalation” line with pro-Bashar al Assad regime forces including Russia.
Mapping the Journeys of Syria’s Artists (28 January 2018) Eliza Griswold traces the paths of Syria’s artists who who have fled Syria since 2011.
ERDOGAN ESCALATES AGAINST IRAN TO PROTECT AFRIN OPERATION (30 January 2018) Pro-Assad regime forces attacked a Turkish convoy that deployed from Turkey into Syria on January 29. Turkish forces stopped short of their objective after coming under fire and it is unclear whether they will resume their advance.
Arabic links:
تقدّم في عمل المنظّمات النسويّة في الجزيرة ولكن… (16 January 2018)إزاء حوادث العنف ضد المرأة تسعى بعض المنظمات النسوية لكشف الحقائق, فيما تكتفي منظمات أخرى بالدور التوعوي مفضلة عدم مواجهة المعوقات.
The English version of this article can be found here: Women’s organizations in northern Syria have come a long way
الحملة الجويّة والبريّة لقوّات النظام في ريف حلب الجنوبيّ وريف إدلب الجنوبيّ وريف حماة الشماليّ – الشرقيّ تتسبّب بتهجير عشرات الآلاف من المدنيّين وتنذر بكارثة إنسانيّة (January 19 2018)عشرات الآلاف من النازحين إلى شمال إدلب في حاجة إلى مساعدات مستعجلة، بعد أن هجّروا من منازلهم في ريف إدلب الجنوبيّ وريف حلب الجنوبيّ وريف حماة الشماليّ – الشرقيّ بسبب القصف الجويّ والمدفعيّ العنيف، الذي شنّته قوّات النظام والطائرات الروسيّة في المنطقة منذ بداية كانون الأوّل/ديسمبر من عام 2017.
The English version of this article can be found here: Humanitarian disaster looms in northern Idlib
ماذا يحدث في ادلب؟ (January 21 2018)ماذا يحدث في ادلب؟ وما تأثير ذلك على مناطق خفض التصعيد ومؤتمر الحوار في سوتشي؟ وهل سوف تتأثر العلاقات التركية الروسية بما يحصل حقيقة؟
المجالس المحلية والتجارب المنقوصة (January 22 2018) “أمام ما يطرح من حلول تسعى لتحويل سورية إلى مجموعة من الكانتونات والأقاليم الصغيرة الخاضعة لوصاية الضامن أو الراعي وتقسيمها من الناحية العملية؛ فإن أي تعويل على اللجان والمجالس المحلية كتجربة سياسية يبنى عليها، لإدارة سورية والحفاظ على وحدتها وحكم المجتمع من خلالها، هو اكتفاء بصيغة منقوصة لحكم الشعب الذي يقرر مصيره، عبر المشاركة الشعبية العامة في رسم سياسة البلد ومحاسبة المسؤولين، وهدرًا للتضحيات التي قُدّمت للوصول إلى دولة تحترم مواطنيها وتؤمّن الحقوق والحريات للجميع.”
الوثيقة الروسية لمؤتمر سوتشي: جيش وأمن تحت الدستور… و«إدارات ذاتية» (January 23 2018)الشرق الأوسط تنشر مسودة بيان «الحوار السوري» المطابقة لمبادئ دي ميستورا واقتراح تشكيل ثلاث لجان
العدوان التركي مستمر: «غصن الزيتون» برعاية الجميع؟ (January 24 2018)لم يكن العدوان التركي على عفرين مفاجئاً، بل جاء بمثابة انتهاز فرصة قدّمتها واشنطن على طبقٍ من ذهب حين أعلن «التحالف الدولي» عزمه على إنشاء «قوّة حرس حدود» جديدة. وتوحي المعطيات السياسية المتوافرة حتى الآن بأنّ «غصن الزيتون» لا تعدو كونها مقدّمة لفصل جديد من فصول الحرب السوريّة. فصل عمل معظم اللاعبين على إطلاق شارته، من دون أن تُغيّر التصريحات الداعية إلى «ضبط النفس» شيئاً من هذه الحقيقة
في تغليب العداء للكُرد على العداء لنظام آل الأسد وحماته (January 25 2018)جلبير الأشقر ينتقد حملة الذي “يدّعي تحرير العرب السوريين من سطوة «الإرهابيين» الكُرد مثلما ادّعى الجيش الصهيوني تحرير اللبنانيين من سطوة «الإرهابيين» الفلسطينيين. ”
على الولايات المتحدة إبقاء “الحماية المؤقتة” للسوريين (January 25 2018)حثّت “هيومن رايتس ووتش” الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية على تجديد منح “وضع الحماية المؤقتة” لـ 7 آلاف سوري تقريبا مقيمين فيها، فمع استمرار النزاع المسلح القائم في البلاد ” سيواجه أي شخص يجبر على العودة إلى سوريا مخاطر جسيمة جراء النزاع والانتهاكات الحقوقية والقانونية الواسعة النطاق”.
The English version of this article can be found here: US: Keep Temporary Protection for Syrians
وثيقة “مجموعة واشنطن” بشأن سوريا: وصاية للأمم المتحدة وتقسيم وحكومات مناطقية (January 26 2018)الميادين تحصل على وثيقة خطيرة وضعتها “مجموعة واشنطن” لحلّ الأزمة السورية تتضمن إشارات إلى وضع سوريا تحت الوصاية المباشرة للأمم المتحدة، وتشير إلى تقسيم سوريا تحت مسمى اللامركزية وتشكيل حكومات مناطقية بصلاحيات كبيرة.
طائرات الاحتلال التركي دمر تل عين دارة الأثري (January 27 2018)”عفرين- تعرض تل عين دارة الأثري والتاريخي بناحية شيراوا بمقاطعة عفرين إلى غارات لجيش الاحتلال التركي ودّمر الموقع الأثري والتاريخي وأصبح كالركام.”
العدوان التركي يستهدف معبد عين دارة في عفرين (January 27 2018)تدين وزارة الثقافة -المديرية العامة للآثار والمتاحف الهجمات التركية على المواقع الأثرية في منطقة عفرين السورية والتي” أدى آخرها إلى تدمير معبد عين دارة وهو أحد أهم الأبنية الأثرية التي بناها الآراميون في سورية خلال الألف الأول قبل الميلاد.”
الدب السوري لم ينقرض ! .. آثار لاقدام للدب البني السوري في منطقة بلودان (January 28 2018)فيديو قصير مصور يوم السبت 20\1\2018، وتحديداً من جبل اليونان وهي أعلى قمة في بلودان تظهر آثار أقدام قد تعود للدب البني السوري الذي كان يُعتقد بأنه قد انقرض من خمسين سنة من سوريا
سَفَراتُ الموتِ واللّقاءِ تَقُصُّها ابنةُ ناجٍ من الإبادة الأرمنية (January 29 2018)الرابع والعشرين نيسان منْ كلّ عام الذكرى السنوية للإبادة الٲرمنية التي راح ضحيتها ما يُقارب المليون ونصف المليون ٲرمني خلال وبعد الحرب العالمية الٲولى. وقد أطلق الأرمن على تلك الأحداث بـ “الجريمة الكبرى” والتي ارتكبها الجنود الٲتراك من ربيع ١٩١٥ حتى خريف ١٩١٦ وبقي صداها المُؤلم يُؤرّق ابنة الناجي نظريان شوربجيان كالآلاف غيرها ممّن كانوا ضحايا حروب ٲحرقتِ الٲخضر واليابس وسط تخاذُل المجتمع الدولي في ٲداء دوره الٳنساني بِرَدّ الحقوق ٳلى ٲصحابها.
قصة قريتين (January 29 2018)ع. الداغستاني من دير فول وسمير تسي من بئر عجم حاولا أن يحكيا عن قريتيهما، و بعضاً من التراجيديا التي عايشاها دون نقصان باليوم والساعة والدقيقة والثانية. ليست فانتازيا أو حكايات للتسلية المبرحة. إنها قصص الموت السوري اليومي وهي رواية الجرحى والمفقودين والمظلومين والهاربين من العسف والقذائف الطائشة والموت الحتمي. قريتان طحنتهما الرحى السورية الهائلة فيما يحاول شاهدان أن يسردا ما شاهداه وشهدا عليه وكيف كان عليهما أن يتركا كل شيء وراءهما ويغذان الخطى باتجاه المجهول الذي لا يعرفان عنه شيئاً.
تراجع روسي عن «لجنة الدستور» في «وثيقة سوتشي» (January 30 2018)توصل المبعوث الدولي ستيفان دي ميستورا مع الجانب الروسي إلى مسودة نهائية لـ«وثيقة سوتشي» لمؤتمر الحوار السوري، حصلت «الشرق الأوسط» على نصها؛ تضمنت موافقة موسكو على شرط الأمم المتحدة، بترك تشكيل «اللجنة الدستورية»، وتحديد مرجعيتها وآلية عملها وأعضائها إلى دي ميستورا، وعملية جنيف برعاية الأمم المتحدة، في وقت علم أن المدعوين إلى المؤتمر تبلغوا خلال لقاء موسع في دار الأوبرا بدمشق «الخطوط الحمر»، بينها «رفض بحث صوغ دستور جديد والجيش والأمن» والتمسك بمبدأ «تعديل الدستور الحالي».
[This article is published jointly in partnership with Jadaliyya.]
بواسطة Syria in a Week Editors | يناير 30, 2018 | Syria in a Week
The following is a selection by our editors of significant weekly developments in Syria. Depending on events, each issue will include anywhere from four to eight briefs. This series is produced in both Arabic and English in partnership between Salon Syria and Jadaliyya. Suggestions and blurbs may be sent to info@salonsyria.com.
Afrin… A New Rift in Syria
28 January 2018
The Turkish army’s “Operation Olive Branch”, which was launched along with factions from the Free Syrian Army (FSA), has unveiled the complex facets of the tragedy in Syria and opened up a new front with consequences that are difficult to predict.
The battles spanned many fronts, as Turkey used its air force, artillery, and tanks. It relied on its allies in the FSA for the ground assault. Turkish reinforcements continue, including mobilization of ground troops, which indicates a long battle with no clear-set objectives. Statements by Turkish officials ranged from taking control of Afrin and expanding the battles toward other areas such as Manbij and northern Iraq to settling for the siege of Afrin and removing the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG).
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan previously announced that his country’s objective is the “return of three and a half million Syrian refugees to their country.”
On the other hand, a Kurdish official announced that the YPG will continue to confront the Turkish assault and that it has received reinforcements from YPG forces in eastern Syria.
Interestingly, Turkey began to signal its intent to expand the operation to include Manbij, where the US army deploys a military force. Erdogan said that the operation will include Manbij and areas controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in eastern Syria. The SDF said that Turkey will face a “proper response” if it carried out its threat in expanding the assault against armed Kurdish factions in northern Syria all the way to Iraqi borders.
The authorities in Afrin published a statement calling on “the Syrian state to carry out its sovereign obligations towards Afrin and protect its borders from the attacks of the Turkish occupier, as it has not fulfilled its responsibility up to now although it has declared so officially … and deploy its Syrian armed forces to secure the borders of the Afrin area.” (Reuters)
With the fighting entering its second week and multiple battle fronts, Turkish forces and their allied FSA factions have yet to achieve a major breakthrough on the ground in a complex terrain and amidst resistance from the YPG.
Positions of the Various Parties
Western governments, including Germany and France, have called on Turkey to “exercise restraint”, whereas Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan affirmed that his government is determined on “crushing” anything that poses a threat to Turkey (AFP). France called for a meeting of the UN Security Council on 22 January, however, it did not result in a joint statement or a condemnation.
The Turkish-American contention was exacerbated further by Turkey’s demand for US forces to be withdrawn from Manbij (AFP) and the cessation of arms supplies to the SDF and YPG. The US side, which is allied with the SDF, introduced the idea of a thirty-kilometer-deep safe zone in Syrian territories that runs along Turkey’s border, however, Turkey refused the idea due to the “lack of trust” in Washington.
The Syrian regime, according to an official source in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, expressed “the Syrian Arab Republic’s strong condemnation of the brutal Turkish aggression against the city of Afrin, which is an integral part of Syrian territories,” and called on the international community to “condemn this aggression and take the necessary steps to stop it immediately.” (SANA)
The Russian position toward the Turkish intervention was conservative and focused on the importance of preserving the integrity of Syrian territories, while encouraging the self-administration to coordinate with the Syrian government. Russia repositioned its military police in Afrin away from confrontation areas.
As for the Syrian opposition, the National Coalition announced its support for Operation Olive Branch in a statement circulated one day after its launch, in order to rid Afrin of the YPG. Numerous armed factions have also stated their support for the attack and participated in it directly from both Syrian and Turkish territories.
Initial Losses … Permanent Scars
Afrin has enjoyed relative stability since 2012. Many of the displaced have settled there, due to its booming economic activities as a result of its resources and location among several unstable areas. The city’s economy also flourished after battles erupted between Hayat Tahir al-Sham and other factions in Idlib city and countryside last July. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham seized control over Idlib, which prompted Turkey to close the Bab al-Hawa border crossing. The commercial route was then switched to the Bab al-Salamah border crossing north of Aleppo. Convoys carrying oil, building materials, and other basic goods started to enter the crossing towards the western countryside of Aleppo and Idlib governorate, passing through Afrin.
However, after the launch of Operation Olive Branch, this commercial route was halted, negatively affecting Afrin, opposition areas in Idlib city and countryside, and Hama countryside (Inab Baladi). According to SANA, the Turkish assault resulted in the death of eighty-six civilians and left another two hundred injured in just one week, in addition to the displacement of thousands of civilians from their homes and villages, and major destruction in homes, infrastructure, and historical ruins (SANA). The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the confrontations have left more than one hundred and ten dead in the ranks of Syrian fighters allied with Turkey and the YPG since last Saturday, as well as the death of thirty-eight civilians, most of whom died as a result of Turkish bombardment. The Turkish army said that “at least three hundred and ninety-four terrorists were neutralized” in the operation, whereas two Turkish soldiers were killed on Tuesday, raising the number of Turkish soldiers who have been killed since the start of the operation to five, in addition to forty injured soldiers. (AFP)
The danger in the Afrin battle is that it strengthens all elements for the continuation of the conflict in Syria as a result of the direct participation of the Turkish army in the fighting and the bombardment of an area that was considered to be stable, with all the destruction, killing, and animosity that a military intervention carries. The battle deepened divisions between Syrians, as opposition factions have headed to fight Syrians in Afrin. This was used by some parties to politicize identity, taking advantage of Syrian, Kurd, and Arab nationalisms, and to justify violence against the other. The battle also constitutes a new form of war economy through providing direct incentives for some groups such as weapons and financial support, or indirect incentives by allowing the seizure of property and the control of new routes for smuggling; in addition to the negative incentives such as blockades, displacement, and deprivation of the most basic elements of life.
Vienna … A Meeting in Lost Time
26-27 January 2018
Syrian peace talks were concluded on Friday in Vienna without any progress in solving the seven-year-old crisis. The Syrian opposition received a Russian commitment to a ceasefire in the besieged eastern Ghouta, near Damascus, starting at midnight Friday. However, the deal did not hold up.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that the bombardment of eastern Ghouta, which is controlled by the opposition, continued early Saturday after a spokesperson for the opposition had announced late Friday that Russia pledged to seek a ceasefire. (Reuters)
A group of five countries (United States, Britain, France, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia), also called “the small group”, presented a paper supporting a political solution in Syria on Thursday 25 January. The paper included proposals regarding the constitution, elections, presidential and governmental powers, and the status of security apparatuses, according to Resolution 2254. The paper focused on limiting the president’s powers in the amended constitution, while expanding the powers of the prime minister and giving powers to “provincial governments”. The paper also focused on the importance of including all Syrians at home and abroad in the new electoral law. It stressed the importance of reforming the security apparatuses and subjecting them to civil authorities to ensure accountability (Al-Jazeera). The delegation of the Syrian government to Vienna rejected the non-official paper altogether.
Sochi … Dialogue without the Opposition
28 January 2018
Middle East
Secretary General of the UN Antonio Guterres has decided to ask Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura to attend the Syrian National Dialogue Conference in Sochi on 29 and 30 January, despite the lack of progress in the Vienna negotiations and the Syrian Negotiation Committee’s declaration that it will boycott the conference. Major Kurdish forces have also declared that they will not participate in the conference.
According to the Middle East newspaper, the conference will focus on two documents: the final statement that includes the acknowledgement of the twelve principles set by the Special Envoy which were developed according to a draft prepared by the consultant of the Special Envoy Vitaly Naumkin, and an appeal to the Syrian people; in addition to the formation of three committees: the Sochi Conference Committee, the Constitution Committee, and the Elections Committee.
The conference has sparked wide controversy since its announcement. Most opposition forces fear that it will be a substitute for the Geneva talks and that Russian supervision over the preparation and invitations will be used as leverage by the regime to exclude the opposition’s demands, including commitment to political transition according to Security Council Resolution 2254.
United States in Raqqa … Stability without Reconstruction
22 January 2018
The Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) said after a visit to Raqqa that the civil mission was not to rebuild but to help civilians return home by clearing roadside bombs, lifting the rubble, restoring electric power, and fixing water pipes. He added: “The mission for us is stabilization not reconstruction… Our part of it is restoring essential services and there is a lot of work to do.” He said that he would be heading to Europe in the coming days to press allies to help in stabilization efforts.
